We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

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Class A South Girls

18 schools, 141 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Twin Brook Recreation Area, CumberlandHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)16

To the state meettop 8 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered141

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course+10 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Twin Brook (Cumberland) rated +10 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

A close race at the top: Falmouth (est. 52%) and Portland (est. 38%). Why Falmouth: their scoring five average 19 s per runner faster than Portland's. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 197 s (Portland: 171 s).

Closest projected battle: Scarborough vs Kennebunk, 3 points apart (252 to 255).

On the state-meet line (top 8 go): Marshwood est. 72%; Fryeburg Academy est. 64%; Deering est. 57%; South Portland est. 62%; Scarborough est. 40%.

Projected individual winner: Falmouth · runner 1, est. 47% to win; 27 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): Portland to win est. 32% -> est. 38%; Falmouth to win est. 58% -> est. 52%.

Team projection · free8 of 16 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	FalmouthSMAA · finish 1–3	52%	98%	>99%	54	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 197 s
2	PortlandSMAA · finish 1–3	38%	96%	>99%	72	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 171 s
3	Thornton AcademySMAA · finish 2–4	9%	71%	>99%	86	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 108 s
4	MassabesicSMAA · finish 3–5	1%	30%	>99%	112	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 140 s
5	CheverusSMAA · finish 4–7	<1%	5%	98%	148	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 268 s
6	MarshwoodSMAA · finish 5–10	<1%	<1%	72%	194	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 174 s
7	Fryeburg AcademyWMC · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	64%	198	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 230 s
8	DeeringSMAA · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	57%	215	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 157 s
↑ State meet line: the top 8 teams
9	South PortlandSMAA · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	62%	229	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 140 s
10	ScarboroughSMAA · finish 6–11	<1%	<1%	40%	252	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 50 s
11	KennebunkSMAA · finish 9–12	<1%	<1%	6%	255	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 568 s
12	GorhamSMAA · finish 10–13	<1%	<1%	2%	317	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 134 s
13	SanfordSMAA · finish 13–15	<1%	<1%	<1%	360	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 285 s
14	Bonny EagleSMAA · finish 12–15	<1%	<1%	<1%	375	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 90 s
15	WindhamSMAA · finish 13–16	<1%	<1%	<1%	387	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 169 s
16	BiddefordSMAA · finish 14–16	<1%	<1%	<1%	402	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 344 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Noble, Westbrook.

Every runner · by school and number112 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Falmouth · runner 1	18:31	1–5	>99%	47%
2	Portland · runner 1	19:00	1–8	>99%	22%
3	Cheverus · runner 1	19:19	1–10	>99%	14%
4	Falmouth · runner 2	19:59	2–17	99%	3%
5	Portland · runner 2	20:09	3–20	98%	2%
6	Falmouth · runner 3	20:12	3–20	98%	2%
7	Massabesic · runner 1	20:36	4–27	94%	1%
8	Thornton Academy · runner 1	20:37	4–27	93%	<1%
9	Fryeburg Academy · runner 1	20:41	5–28	92%	<1%
10	Thornton Academy · runner 2	20:42	5–28	93%	<1%
11	Kennebunk · runner 1	20:52	6–30	91%	<1%
12	Thornton Academy · runner 3	20:52	6–30	90%	<1%
13	South Portland · runner 1	20:56	6–32	89%	<1%
14	Massabesic · runner 2	20:57	6–31	89%	<1%
15	Portland · runner 3	20:59	6–33	88%	<1%
16	Cheverus · runner 2	21:04	7–35	85%	<1%
17	Marshwood · runner 1	21:13	7–37	81%	<1%
18	Falmouth · runner 4	21:38	11–44	66%	<1%
19	Marshwood · runner 2	21:41	11–46	64%	<1%
20	Massabesic · runner 3	21:41	11–45	65%	<1%
21	Massabesic · runner 4	21:42	11–45	64%	<1%
22	Deering · runner 1	21:42	11–46	64%	<1%
23	Thornton Academy · runner 4	21:43	11–47	63%	<1%
24	Portland · runner 4	21:44	12–47	61%	<1%
25	Falmouth · runner 5	21:47	7–61	56%	<1%
26	Portland · runner 5	21:51	8–61	54%	<1%
27	Portland · runner 6	21:55	14–50	53%	<1%
28	Portland · runner 7	22:03	15–53	48%	<1%
29	Deering · runner 2	22:06	16–54	45%	<1%
30	Kennebunk · runner 2	22:13	17–56	40%	<1%
31	Cheverus · runner 3	22:17	18–57	37%	<1%
32	Fryeburg Academy · runner 2	22:21	18–58	37%	<1%
33	Noble · runner 1individual (no team score)	22:21	18–59	36%	<1%
34	Thornton Academy · runner 5	22:25	19–60	33%	<1%
35	Cheverus · runner 4	22:25	19–59	32%	<1%
36	Marshwood · runner 3	22:25	19–59	32%	<1%
37	Falmouth · runner 6	22:25	20–59	31%	<1%
38	Gorham · runner 1	22:34	21–62	26%	<1%
39	Fryeburg Academy · runner 3	22:35	22–63	24%	<1%
40	Falmouth · runner 7	22:37	22–63	25%	<1%
41	Kennebunk · runner 3	22:37	23–63	24%	<1%
42	Sanford · runner 1	22:40	23–65	21%	<1%
43	Sanford · runner 2	22:40	22–64	23%	<1%
44	Scarborough · runner 1	22:41	24–64	21%	<1%
45	Scarborough · runner 2	22:44	24–65	21%	<1%
46	Deering · runner 3	22:48	24–66	19%	<1%
47	Scarborough · runner 3	22:49	25–66	18%	<1%
48	Fryeburg Academy · runner 4	22:51	25–66	18%	<1%
49	Deering · runner 4	22:51	25–67	18%	<1%
50	Thornton Academy · runner 6Little data	22:52	7–92	34%	2%
51	Massabesic · runner 5	22:56	27–70	15%	<1%
52	Gorham · runner 2	22:56	27–68	15%	<1%
53	South Portland · runner 2	23:07	31–71	10%	<1%
54	South Portland · runner 3	23:08	30–71	10%	<1%
55	South Portland · runner 4	23:09	31–72	10%	<1%
56	Marshwood · runner 4	23:13	32–73	9%	<1%
57	Massabesic · runner 6	23:16	33–74	8%	<1%
58	South Portland · runner 5	23:16	33–74	7%	<1%
59	Scarborough · runner 4	23:24	36–76	6%	<1%
60	Windham · runner 1	23:25	36–76	6%	<1%
61	Scarborough · runner 5Little data	23:31	12–96	25%	<1%
62	Bonny Eagle · runner 1	23:31	37–77	5%	<1%
63	Windham · runner 2	23:34	37–79	5%	<1%
64	Biddeford · runner 1	23:44	42–80	3%	<1%
65	Cheverus · runner 5	23:47	42–81	2%	<1%
66	South Portland · runner 6	23:47	42–82	3%	<1%
67	Biddeford · runner 2	23:50	43–82	2%	<1%
68	Bonny Eagle · runner 2	23:53	45–82	2%	<1%
69	Marshwood · runner 5	24:07	49–86	<1%	<1%
70	Kennebunk · runner 4	24:14	51–87	<1%	<1%
71	Biddeford · runner 3	24:19	53–88	<1%	<1%
72	Deering · runner 5	24:19	52–88	<1%	<1%
73	Noble · runner 2individual (no team score)	24:19	53–88	<1%	<1%
74	Fryeburg Academy · runner 5	24:31	56–91	<1%	<1%
75	Thornton Academy · runner 7	24:34	57–90	<1%	<1%
76	Massabesic · runner 7	24:36	57–91	<1%	<1%
77	Gorham · runner 3	24:38	60–92	<1%	<1%
78	Gorham · runner 4	24:39	58–92	<1%	<1%
79	Scarborough · runner 6	24:40	46–98	3%	<1%
80	Westbrook · runner 1individual (no team score)	24:40	59–92	<1%	<1%
81	Gorham · runner 5	24:48	62–93	<1%	<1%
82	Gorham · runner 6	24:48	61–94	<1%	<1%
83	Gorham · runner 7	24:51	61–95	<1%	<1%
84	Bonny Eagle · runner 3	24:52	62–94	<1%	<1%
85	Deering · runner 6	24:55	64–94	<1%	<1%
86	Bonny Eagle · runner 4	25:00	65–95	<1%	<1%
87	Bonny Eagle · runner 5	25:02	66–96	<1%	<1%
88	Windham · runner 3	25:12	68–97	<1%	<1%
89	Sanford · runner 3	25:16	69–97	<1%	<1%
90	Bonny Eagle · runner 6	25:21	70–98	<1%	<1%
91	Windham · runner 4	25:22	71–98	<1%	<1%
92	Sanford · runner 4	25:30	73–99	<1%	<1%
93	Marshwood · runner 6	25:38	74–100	<1%	<1%
94	Scarborough · runner 7	25:54	80–102	<1%	<1%
95	Cheverus · runner 6	26:08	82–103	<1%	<1%
96	Windham · runner 5	26:14	84–104	<1%	<1%
97	Bonny Eagle · runner 7	26:15	84–104	<1%	<1%
98	Windham · runner 6	26:16	84–104	<1%	<1%
99	Marshwood · runner 7	26:19	84–104	<1%	<1%
100	Cheverus · runner 7	26:22	85–104	<1%	<1%
101	Windham · runner 7	26:31	87–105	<1%	<1%
102	Biddeford · runner 4	26:52	91–106	<1%	<1%
103	Noble · runner 3individual (no team score)	27:01	93–107	<1%	<1%
104	Fryeburg Academy · runner 6	27:13	95–107	<1%	<1%
105	Fryeburg Academy · runner 7	27:18	95–107	<1%	<1%
106	Sanford · runner 5	27:25	96–107	<1%	<1%
107	South Portland · runner 7	27:39	98–108	<1%	<1%
108	Biddeford · runner 5	29:28	107–111	<1%	<1%
109	Noble · runner 4individual (no team score)	29:32	105–111	<1%	<1%
110	Kennebunk · runner 5	30:20	108–112	<1%	<1%
111	Deering · runner 7	30:26	109–112	<1%	<1%
112	Sanford · runner 6	31:08	110–112	<1%	<1%

Show all 112 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.