We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
South Portland Girls
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish9 of 16 (229 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–10
State meet linetop 8 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.62%65% before the conference meets
Projected points229
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:43
Pack: 1st to 5th runner140 s
Scoring five's projected places13 · 53 · 54 · 55 · 58
6th runner behind the 5th31 s
Against the teams around them
Deering (projected 8)+2 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Deering215 pts
Their points vs the last team in+14
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
South Portland runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #13 overall | 20:56 | 89%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #53 overall | 23:07 | 10%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #54 overall | 23:08 | 10%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #55 overall | 23:09 | 10%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #58 overall | 23:16 | 7%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #66 overall | 23:47 | 3%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #107 overall | 27:39 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.