We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Maine high school cross country · 2026 · Regionals, graded

Regionals: how we did

Before the races we projected every team in all 12 Regional races. The projection was frozen Friday night, before the first race. Here's every team, what we said and what happened.

Sat Oct 2412 races137 teams scoredThe projection State meet projection →

State-meet team spots68 of 75teams we had in the top half went

Team winners8 of 12our projected #1 won the race

Within one place107 of 13761 teams exactly where we had them

90% or more to States56 of 58teams we showed at est. 90% or more that went

Teams that beat our numbers the most

MarshwoodClass A South boys · we had #15, finished #11

Lake RegionClass B South boys · we had #9, finished #5

Bonny EagleClass A South boys · we had #6, finished #3

Mt. Desert IslandClass B North boys · we had #7, finished #4

WaynfleteClass C South boys · we had #7, finished #4

Boothbay/WiscassetClass C South girls · we had #5, finished #2

Race day vs our times

Places held up best. Times moved with the day: girls' races ran about 16 seconds slower than we projected overall, boys' about 5. That's the course and the weather on the day, and it doesn't change who finishes where.

Class A North · Girls5 of 10 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Hampden Academy	Yes	1	27	32	93%	>99%
2	Camden Hills	Yes	2	62	62	7%	>99%
3	Brunswick	Yes	3	110	69	<1%	>99%
4	Mt. Ararat	Yes	4	110	110	<1%	>99%
5	Bangor	Yes	5	119	140	<1%	80%
↑ State meet line: the top 5 teams
6	Mt. Blue	No	6	143	166	<1%	17%
7	Oxford Hills	No	7	164	180	<1%	3%
8	Skowhegan	No	8	228	256	<1%	<1%
9	Edward Little1 place better than we had	No	10	256	270	<1%	<1%
–	Lewistonfewer than five finishers, no team score	No	9	–	269	<1%	<1%

Our projected winner won. 8 of 9 teams finished exactly where we had them, 9 within one place. State-meet calls: 5 of 5 right. The race ran 4 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class A South · Girls8 of 16 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Portland1 place better than we had	Yes	2	63	72	38%	>99%
2	Thornton Academy1 place better than we had	Yes	3	70	86	9%	>99%
3	Falmouth	Yes	1	71	54	52%	>99%
4	Massabesic	Yes	4	130	112	1%	>99%
5	Cheverus	Yes	5	137	148	<1%	98%
6	Fryeburg Academy1 place better than we had	Yes	7	175	198	<1%	64%
7	Marshwood	Yes	6	183	194	<1%	72%
8	Scarborough2 places better than we had	Yeswe had out	10	212	252	<1%	40%
↑ State meet line: the top 8 teams
9	Deering	Nowe had in	8	241	215	<1%	57%
10	Kennebunk1 place better than we had	No	11	253	255	<1%	6%
11	Gorham1 place better than we had	No	12	254	317	<1%	2%
12	South Portland	No	9	265	229	<1%	62%
13	Sanford	No	13	324	360	<1%	<1%
14	Windham1 place better than we had	No	15	358	387	<1%	<1%
15	Bonny Eagle	No	14	364	375	<1%	<1%
–	Biddefordfewer than five finishers, no team score	No	16	–	402	<1%	<1%

Our projected winner didn't win. 3 of 15 teams finished exactly where we had them, 12 within one place. State-meet calls: 7 of 8 right. The race ran 27 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class B North · Girls5 of 10 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Mt. Desert Island1 place better than we had	Yes	2	40	52	46%	>99%
2	Presque Isle	Yes	1	64	44	54%	>99%
3	Caribou	Yes	3	85	91	<1%	>99%
4	John Bapst1 place better than we had	Yes	5	98	120	<1%	93%
5	Waterville	Yes	4	113	109	<1%	96%
↑ State meet line: the top 5 teams
6	Old Town1 place better than we had	No	7	165	192	<1%	<1%
7	Cony1 place better than we had	No	8	180	207	<1%	<1%
8	Gardiner2 places better than we had	No	10	203	243	<1%	<1%
9	Lawrence	No	9	207	218	<1%	<1%
–	Ellsworthfewer than five finishers, no team score	No	6	–	146	<1%	11%

Our projected winner didn't win. 2 of 9 teams finished exactly where we had them, 8 within one place. State-meet calls: 5 of 5 right. The race ran 5 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class B South · Girls6 of 11 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Freeport	Yes	1	50	53	36%	>99%
2	Yarmouth	Yes	2	63	54	38%	>99%
3	Cape Elizabeth	Yes	3	67	66	26%	>99%
4	Lincoln Academy	Yes	4	108	115	<1%	98%
5	York1 place better than we had	Yes	6	122	149	<1%	72%
6	Greely1 place better than we had	Yeswe had out	7	163	160	<1%	40%
↑ State meet line: the top 6 teams
7	Morse	Nowe had in	5	166	129	<1%	90%
8	Poland	No	8	263	267	<1%	<1%
9	Spruce Mountain	No	9	273	270	<1%	<1%
10	Lake Region1 place better than we had	No	11	278	298	<1%	<1%
11	Leavitt	No	10	285	292	<1%	<1%

Our projected winner won. 6 of 11 teams finished exactly where we had them, 10 within one place. State-meet calls: 5 of 6 right. The race ran 15 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class C North · Girls4 of 7 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	George Stevens Academy1 place better than we had	Yes	2	46	42	35%	>99%
2	Orono	Yes	1	48	34	65%	>99%
3	Calais	Yes	3	73	81	<1%	>99%
4	Narraguagus	Yes	4	77	84	<1%	>99%
↑ State meet line: the top 4 teams
5	Houlton/GHCA	No	5	106	123	<1%	<1%
6	MCI	No	6	127	142	<1%	<1%
7	Schenck/Stearns	No	7	164	176	<1%	<1%

Our projected winner didn't win. 5 of 7 teams finished exactly where we had them, 7 within one place. State-meet calls: 4 of 4 right. The race ran 29 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class C South · Girls6 of 11 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Maine Coast Waldorf	Yes	1	60	65	74%	>99%
2	Boothbay/Wiscasset3 places better than we had	Yes	5	91	118	<1%	>99%
3	Maranacook	Yes	3	101	99	2%	>99%
4	NYA	Yes	2	113	76	23%	>99%
5	Winthrop1 place better than we had	Yes	6	115	141	<1%	98%
6	Waynflete	Yes	4	133	110	<1%	>99%
↑ State meet line: the top 6 teams
7	Dirigo	No	7	152	176	<1%	3%
8	Carrabec	No	8	177	212	<1%	<1%
9	Forest Hills1 place better than we had	No	10	207	227	<1%	<1%
10	Lisbon1 place better than we had	No	11	235	275	<1%	<1%
–	Monmouth Academyfewer than five finishers, no team score	No	9	–	216	<1%	<1%

Our projected winner won. 4 of 10 teams finished exactly where we had them, 7 within one place. State-meet calls: 6 of 6 right. The race ran 11 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

How this was graded: the projection was frozen before the first race (Fri 10-23 23:30:45 ET (frozen.json sha e579c02b)) and compared with the results. Team scores use the official MPA team scores. "We had" = our projected team place; "To States" = our chance the team would finish in the top half and go on to the state meet. The MPA's official list decides who qualifies. Runner by runner: tap "Every runner" on any race (runners appear as numbers inside their team). We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.