Maine high school cross country

2026 season · team scores recomputed from every finish order · runners shown by school and number

We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Maine high school cross country · 2026 · State meet

State meet: who wins each class

Classes A, B and C at Cony High School, Augusta. Every team and runner that qualified at the Regionals, projected from every 2026 result we have, the Regionals included. Chances, not calls: each comes from 4,000 simulated races.

Frozen Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM · the numbers we'll grade after the race
Sat Oct 31Cony (Augusta)3 races · boysHow we got the numbersRegionals, graded
313 boys · 41 teams · results through Oct 24 · field: the Regionals qualifiers (top teams + top 30 runners in each regional)
Cony · Augusta · in the numbers
Cony (Augusta) · State course (2025-) rated +28 s vs a median Maine course
Sat 10 AM–1 PM forecast: 44°F, dew point 24°F, wind 12 mph, no rain expected · no heat cost
A lesson from the Regionals
Places held up better than times. The six boys regionals ran -3 s to +13 s against our times (course and weather on the day; + = slower). Read the times as a guide; the places and chances are the projection.
Class A Boys15 teams
Projected team (by points)Chance to win est.
1Portland87%
2Thornton Academy5%
3Falmouth5%
4Gorham<1%
Portland lead the projection clearly (est. 87% to win).
Projected individual winner: Falmouth · runner 1, est. 25% to win
North 6 + South 9 teams9 individuals
Every team + runner →
Class B Boys13 teams
Projected team (by points)Chance to win est.
1Yarmouth99%
2Freeport1%
3Caribou<1%
4Cape Elizabeth<1%
Yarmouth lead the projection clearly (est. 99% to win).
Projected individual winner: Caribou · runner 1, est. 38% to win
North 7 + South 6 teams12 individuals
Every team + runner →
Class C Boys13 teams
Projected team (by points)Chance to win est.
1Winthrop77%
2Houlton/GHCA20%
3George Stevens Academy2%
4Maranacook<1%
Winthrop lead the projection clearly (est. 77% to win).
Projected individual winner: Dirigo · runner 1, est. 40% to win
North 6 + South 7 teams11 individuals
Every team + runner →
Who qualified · Boysfrom the Regionals results
ClassRegionTeams that wentIndividuals
ANorthHampden Academy, Camden Hills, Messalonskee, Mt. Blue, Oxford Hills, Brunswicktop 6 of 12 teams6
ASouthPortland, Thornton Academy, Bonny Eagle, Scarborough, Gorham, Falmouth, Sanford, South Portland, Massabesictop 9 of 17 teams3
BNorthCaribou, John Bapst, Presque Isle, Mt. Desert Island, Erskine Academy, Medomak Valley, Gardinertop 7 of 14 teams5
BSouthYarmouth, Freeport, Cape Elizabeth, Greely, Lake Region, Yorktop 6 of 11 teams7
CNorthHoulton/GHCA, George Stevens Academy, Orono, Bucksport, Washington Academy, MCItop 6 of 10 teams4
CSouthWinthrop, Maranacook, Carrabec, Waynflete, Dirigo, Madison, Boothbay/Wiscassettop 7 of 12 teams7
How we got the numbers

Who runs. From the Regionals results: in each regional, the teams that finished inside the state-meet line (half of the teams, at least four) and every runner in the top 30. A qualified team runs the runners who ran for it at its regional; if the MPA posts its own entry list, we switch to it. The MPA decides who qualifies.

Each runner's time. The same model as the Regionals page: every 2026 race, with course, weather, race day and season fitness taken out, then put on the Cony course with Saturday's forecast.

The race, 4,000 times. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with few races), and each team gets a shared good or bad day. One change from the Regionals, tested before we made it: the boys' shared team day is now 10 s (was 20 s). On the 2026 Regionals and the 2024 and 2025 State meets, a smaller boys' team day predicted the winners better every time; the girls' (12 s) already did best and stays. Scoring: NFHS (5 score, 6th and 7th displace, a tie goes to the better 6th runner).

Chances, not calls. "Finish a–b" is where a team lands in 8 of 10 simulated races. Tiny chances show as est. <1% and near-certain ones as est. >99%: nothing is ever a sure thing.