We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Class C Boys · State meet

13 teams and 11 individual qualifiers. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win and finish top 3, and every runner.

Frozen Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM · the numbers we'll grade after the race

Sat Oct 31Cony High School, AugustaHow we got the numbers

Teams13

Runners99

FieldRegionals qualifiers

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 24

Course+28 s vs median

Sat forecast44°F · no heat cost

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Cony (Augusta) · State course (2025-) rated +28 s vs a median Maine course. Sat 10 AM–1 PM forecast: 44°F, dew point 24°F, wind 12 mph, no rain expected · no heat cost.

Winthrop lead the projection clearly (est. 77% to win). Why Winthrop: their scoring five average 21 s per runner faster than Houlton/GHCA's. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 119 s (Houlton/GHCA: 112 s).

Closest projected battle: Dirigo vs Waynflete, 3 points apart (183 to 186).

In the fight for the top 3: George Stevens Academy est. 63%; Maranacook est. 28%.

Projected individual winner: Dirigo · runner 1, est. 40% to win; 8 runners have a better than even chance of the top 10.

Team projection · free13 teams

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	Pts	Scoring five (places)
1	WinthropSouth · finish 1–2	77%	>99%	54	2 · 8 · 13 · 16 · 21
2	Houlton/GHCANorth · finish 1–3	20%	97%	78	9 · 10 · 11 · 15 · 44
3	George Stevens AcademyNorth · finish 2–5	2%	63%	109	19 · 25 · 26 · 27 · 31
↑ Top 3: the state-meet trophies
4	MaranacookSouth · finish 3–6	<1%	28%	130	6 · 23 · 35 · 41 · 49
5	CarrabecSouth · finish 4–8	<1%	6%	157	28 · 30 · 39 · 42 · 48
6	OronoNorth · finish 4–7	<1%	5%	164	5 · 40 · 43 · 51 · 53
7	DirigoSouth · finish 5–9	<1%	<1%	183	1 · 33 · 50 · 59 · 70
8	WaynfleteSouth · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	186	4 · 24 · 34 · 74 · 82
9	Boothbay/WiscassetSouth · finish 7–11	<1%	<1%	213	17 · 45 · 46 · 60 · 79
10	BucksportNorth · finish 9–11	<1%	<1%	223	12 · 14 · 36 · 93 · 98
11	MadisonSouth · finish 9–12	<1%	<1%	231	3 · 54 · 63 · 66 · 80
12	Washington AcademyNorth · finish 11–12	<1%	<1%	270	38 · 62 · 68 · 73 · 75
13	MCINorth · finish 13	<1%	<1%	339	56 · 69 · 83 · 88 · 92

Order = projected finish (points). "Finish a–b" = where the team lands in 8 of 10 simulated races. Region = the regional it qualified from.

Every runner · by school and number99 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 10 est.	Win est.
1	Dirigo · runner 1	16:31	1–6	97%	40%
2	Winthrop · runner 1	16:43	1–8	94%	25%
3	Madison · runner 1	17:04	1–13	85%	10%
4	Waynflete · runner 1	17:20	2–16	73%	6%
5	Orono · runner 1	17:27	3–18	66%	3%
6	Maranacook · runner 1	17:29	3–18	64%	3%
7	NYA · runner 1individual	17:31	3–19	62%	3%
8	Winthrop · runner 2	17:33	3–20	61%	3%
9	Houlton/GHCA · runner 1	17:43	4–23	48%	1%
10	Houlton/GHCA · runner 2	17:46	4–23	46%	1%
11	Houlton/GHCA · runner 3	17:48	4–24	44%	1%
12	Bucksport · runner 1	17:54	5–26	37%	<1%
13	Winthrop · runner 3	18:00	6–27	31%	<1%
14	Bucksport · runner 2	18:01	6–27	31%	<1%
15	Houlton/GHCA · runner 4	18:02	6–28	30%	<1%
16	Winthrop · runner 4	18:11	7–31	23%	<1%
17	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 1	18:15	8–32	19%	<1%
18	Valley · runner 1individual	18:17	8–33	16%	<1%
19	George Stevens Academy · runner 1	18:23	9–35	14%	<1%
20	Valley · runner 2individual	18:42	13–41	6%	<1%
21	Winthrop · runner 5	18:42	13–41	5%	<1%
22	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 1individual	18:44	13–41	5%	<1%
23	Maranacook · runner 2	18:45	14–43	5%	<1%
24	Waynflete · runner 2	18:45	14–42	5%	<1%
25	George Stevens Academy · runner 2	18:46	14–42	5%	<1%
26	George Stevens Academy · runner 3	18:47	15–43	4%	<1%
27	George Stevens Academy · runner 4	18:49	15–44	4%	<1%
28	Carrabec · runner 1	18:50	15–43	4%	<1%
29	Old Orchard Beach · runner 1individual	18:51	15–45	3%	<1%
30	Carrabec · runner 2	18:52	15–44	4%	<1%
31	George Stevens Academy · runner 5	18:56	17–46	2%	<1%
32	Traip Academy · runner 1individual	18:57	17–47	2%	<1%
33	Dirigo · runner 2	19:00	18–48	2%	<1%
34	Waynflete · runner 3	19:10	20–51	1%	<1%
35	Maranacook · runner 3	19:11	20–51	<1%	<1%
36	Bucksport · runner 3	19:11	20–51	<1%	<1%
37	Valley · runner 3individual	19:17	22–53	<1%	<1%
38	Washington Academy · runner 1	19:17	22–53	<1%	<1%
39	Carrabec · runner 3	19:18	22–53	<1%	<1%
40	Orono · runner 2	19:21	23–55	<1%	<1%
41	Maranacook · runner 4	19:25	25–56	<1%	<1%
42	Carrabec · runner 4	19:27	25–56	<1%	<1%
43	Orono · runner 3	19:29	26–56	<1%	<1%
44	Houlton/GHCA · runner 5	19:35	28–59	<1%	<1%
45	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 2	19:41	28–60	<1%	<1%
46	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 3	19:47	31–63	<1%	<1%
47	Winthrop · runner 6	19:48	32–62	<1%	<1%
48	Carrabec · runner 5	19:50	32–63	<1%	<1%
49	Maranacook · runner 5	19:56	34–65	<1%	<1%
50	Dirigo · runner 3	20:01	36–66	<1%	<1%
51	Orono · runner 4	20:02	36–67	<1%	<1%
52	Maranacook · runner 6	20:03	37–68	<1%	<1%
53	Orono · runner 5	20:07	38–68	<1%	<1%
54	Madison · runner 2	20:09	38–70	<1%	<1%
55	Orono · runner 6	20:11	39–69	<1%	<1%
56	MCI · runner 1	20:12	40–69	<1%	<1%
57	Sumner · runner 1individual	20:18	42–72	<1%	<1%
58	George Stevens Academy · runner 6	20:18	42–71	<1%	<1%
59	Dirigo · runner 4	20:26	36–80	<1%	<1%
60	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 4	20:31	46–75	<1%	<1%
61	Maranacook · runner 7	20:32	46–75	<1%	<1%
62	Washington Academy · runner 2	20:35	47–75	<1%	<1%
63	Madison · runner 3	20:36	47–76	<1%	<1%
64	Orono · runner 7	20:37	48–76	<1%	<1%
65	Machias · runner 1individual	20:39	48–77	<1%	<1%
66	Madison · runner 4	20:46	50–78	<1%	<1%
67	Winthrop · runner 7	20:46	51–78	<1%	<1%
68	Washington Academy · runner 3	20:47	51–79	<1%	<1%
69	MCI · runner 2	20:49	52–80	<1%	<1%
70	Dirigo · runner 5	20:52	53–80	<1%	<1%
71	Sumner · runner 2individual	20:59	54–81	<1%	<1%
72	Calais · runner 1individual	21:03	56–82	<1%	<1%
73	Washington Academy · runner 4	21:07	57–83	<1%	<1%
74	Waynflete · runner 4	21:15	60–84	<1%	<1%
75	Washington Academy · runner 5	21:18	61–85	<1%	<1%
76	Dirigo · runner 6	21:19	62–86	<1%	<1%
77	Houlton/GHCA · runner 6	21:22	63–86	<1%	<1%
78	Carrabec · runner 6	21:23	62–86	<1%	<1%
79	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 5	21:28	64–87	<1%	<1%
80	Madison · runner 5	21:36	66–88	<1%	<1%
81	Dirigo · runner 7	21:36	67–88	<1%	<1%
82	Waynflete · runner 5	21:50	70–89	<1%	<1%
83	MCI · runner 3	21:50	70–89	<1%	<1%
84	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 6	21:57	72–90	<1%	<1%
85	George Stevens Academy · runner 7	21:57	72–90	<1%	<1%
86	Washington Academy · runner 6	22:10	76–91	<1%	<1%
87	Carrabec · runner 7	22:14	77–92	<1%	<1%
88	MCI · runner 4	22:14	70–93	<1%	<1%
89	Waynflete · runner 6	22:16	78–92	<1%	<1%
90	Waynflete · runner 7	22:24	79–92	<1%	<1%
91	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 7	22:33	81–93	<1%	<1%
92	MCI · runner 5	22:41	83–93	<1%	<1%
93	Bucksport · runner 4	23:11	88–94	<1%	<1%
94	Madison · runner 6	23:33	90–95	<1%	<1%
95	Washington Academy · runner 7	24:17	93–95	<1%	<1%
96	Madison · runner 7	27:24	96–98	<1%	<1%
97	MCI · runner 6	27:28	96–98	<1%	<1%
98	Bucksport · runner 5	27:29	96–98	<1%	<1%
99	MCI · runner 7	31:57	99–99	<1%	<1%

Show all 99 runners

Chances, not calls: 4,000 simulated races. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Qualified teams run the runners who ran for them at their regional (7 at most); individual qualifiers run for themselves and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete.