We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Class C Girls · State meet

10 teams and 23 individual qualifiers. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win and finish top 3, and every runner.

Frozen Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM · the numbers we'll grade after the race

Sat Oct 31Cony High School, AugustaHow we got the numbers

Teams10

Runners82

FieldRegionals qualifiers

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 24

Course+36 s vs median

Sat forecast44°F · no heat cost

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Cony (Augusta) · State course (2025-) rated +36 s vs a median Maine course. Sat 10 AM–1 PM forecast: 44°F, dew point 24°F, wind 12 mph, no rain expected · no heat cost.

Maine Coast Waldorf lead the projection clearly (est. 79% to win). Why Maine Coast Waldorf: their scoring five average 16 s per runner faster than George Stevens Academy's. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 121 s (George Stevens Academy: 188 s).

Closest projected battle: Maranacook vs NYA, 3 points apart (122 to 125).

In the fight for the top 3: Orono est. 51%; Maranacook est. 35%.

Projected individual winner: Maranacook · runner 1, est. 79% to win; 7 runners have a better than even chance of the top 10.

Team projection · free10 teams

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	Pts	Scoring five (places)
1	Maine Coast WaldorfSouth · finish 1–2	79%	99%	69	8 · 9 · 19 · 32 · 36
2	George Stevens AcademyNorth · finish 1–4	17%	87%	90	4 · 10 · 31 · 41 · 43
3	OronoNorth · finish 2–6	2%	51%	113	12 · 22 · 26 · 52 · 55
↑ Top 3: the state-meet trophies
4	MaranacookSouth · finish 2–6	1%	35%	122	1 · 27 · 44 · 50 · 54
5	NYASouth · finish 3–7	<1%	16%	125	20 · 21 · 30 · 45 · 71
6	Boothbay/WiscassetSouth · finish 3–7	<1%	12%	136	15 · 25 · 34 · 62 · 63
7	WinthropSouth · finish 6–9	<1%	<1%	157	3 · 23 · 61 · 68 · 76
8	CalaisNorth · finish 7–10	<1%	<1%	164	13 · 29 · 38 · 77 · 78
9	WaynfleteSouth · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	167	7 · 39 · 57 · 69 · 73
10	NarraguagusNorth · finish 7–10	<1%	<1%	178	35 · 37 · 58 · 59 · 70

Order = projected finish (points). "Finish a–b" = where the team lands in 8 of 10 simulated races. Region = the regional it qualified from.

Every runner · by school and number82 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 10 est.	Win est.
1	Maranacook · runner 1	19:24	1–2	>99%	79%
2	Madison · runner 1individual	21:06	2–11	89%	7%
3	Winthrop · runner 1	21:20	2–13	82%	4%
4	George Stevens Academy · runner 1	21:35	2–16	74%	2%
5	Dirigo · runner 1individual	21:36	2–16	73%	2%
6	Traip Academy · runner 1individual	21:39	2–16	71%	2%
7	Waynflete · runner 1	21:47	3–18	66%	1%
8	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 1	22:12	4–22	49%	<1%
9	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 2	22:15	4–23	46%	<1%
10	George Stevens Academy · runner 2	22:15	4–23	47%	<1%
11	Dexter · runner 1individual	22:24	5–25	39%	<1%
12	Orono · runner 1	22:29	5–27	36%	<1%
13	Calais · runner 1	22:41	6–29	26%	<1%
14	Monmouth Academy · runner 1individual	22:41	6–30	28%	<1%
15	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 1	22:41	6–29	29%	<1%
16	Hall-Dale · runner 1individual	22:45	7–31	24%	<1%
17	Bucksport · runner 1individual	22:51	7–33	21%	<1%
18	Forest Hills · runner 1individual	23:02	9–35	16%	<1%
19	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 3	23:12	10–38	12%	<1%
20	NYA · runner 1	23:17	10–38	11%	<1%
21	NYA · runner 2	23:17	11–39	9%	<1%
22	Orono · runner 2	23:19	11–40	9%	<1%
23	Winthrop · runner 2	23:30	12–42	7%	<1%
24	Bangor Christian · runner 1individual	23:42	14–45	4%	<1%
25	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 2	23:43	14–46	5%	<1%
26	Orono · runner 3	23:45	15–45	4%	<1%
27	Maranacook · runner 2	23:51	16–47	3%	<1%
28	Dexter · runner 2individual	23:57	17–48	3%	<1%
29	Calais · runner 2	23:58	16–49	3%	<1%
30	NYA · runner 3	23:59	17–49	2%	<1%
31	George Stevens Academy · runner 3	24:01	17–49	2%	<1%
32	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 4	24:02	18–50	2%	<1%
33	MCI · runner 1individual	24:02	18–50	2%	<1%
34	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 3	24:07	19–51	1%	<1%
35	Narraguagus · runner 1	24:13	20–52	1%	<1%
36	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 5	24:13	20–52	1%	<1%
37	Narraguagus · runner 2	24:18	21–54	<1%	<1%
38	Calais · runner 3	24:20	21–54	<1%	<1%
39	Waynflete · runner 2	24:27	23–56	<1%	<1%
40	Carrabec · runner 1individual	24:31	23–56	<1%	<1%
41	George Stevens Academy · runner 4	24:41	26–58	<1%	<1%
42	Dirigo · runner 2individual	24:42	26–59	<1%	<1%
43	George Stevens Academy · runner 5	24:43	26–59	<1%	<1%
44	Maranacook · runner 3	24:48	27–59	<1%	<1%
45	NYA · runner 4	24:49	28–60	<1%	<1%
46	Hall-Dale · runner 2individual	24:53	29–61	<1%	<1%
47	Dexter · runner 3individual	24:55	29–60	<1%	<1%
48	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 6	24:56	29–61	<1%	<1%
49	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 7	24:58	29–61	<1%	<1%
50	Maranacook · runner 4	25:07	32–62	<1%	<1%
51	Richmond · runner 1individual	25:11	33–63	<1%	<1%
52	Orono · runner 4	25:12	33–63	<1%	<1%
53	Houlton/GHCA · runner 1individual	25:15	34–64	<1%	<1%
54	Maranacook · runner 5	25:17	34–64	<1%	<1%
55	Orono · runner 5	25:18	35–64	<1%	<1%
56	Lisbon · runner 1individual	25:20	36–64	<1%	<1%
57	Waynflete · runner 3	25:35	39–66	<1%	<1%
58	Narraguagus · runner 3	25:40	39–67	<1%	<1%
59	Narraguagus · runner 4	25:46	42–68	<1%	<1%
60	Washington Academy · runner 1individual	25:47	42–68	<1%	<1%
61	Winthrop · runner 3	25:51	43–68	<1%	<1%
62	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 4	25:53	44–68	<1%	<1%
63	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 5	26:09	47–70	<1%	<1%
64	Washburn · runner 1individual	26:10	37–74	<1%	<1%
65	Sumner · runner 1individual	26:11	48–71	<1%	<1%
66	Houlton/GHCA · runner 2individual	26:17	50–71	<1%	<1%
67	MSSM · runner 1individual	26:44	48–77	<1%	<1%
68	Winthrop · runner 4	26:52	58–74	<1%	<1%
69	Waynflete · runner 4	26:54	58–74	<1%	<1%
70	Narraguagus · runner 5	26:58	59–75	<1%	<1%
71	NYA · runner 5	27:14	61–76	<1%	<1%
72	Orono · runner 6	27:44	65–78	<1%	<1%
73	Waynflete · runner 5	27:48	66–79	<1%	<1%
74	Waynflete · runner 6	27:56	67–79	<1%	<1%
75	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 6	28:16	69–80	<1%	<1%
76	Winthrop · runner 5	28:17	69–80	<1%	<1%
77	Calais · runner 4	28:31	71–81	<1%	<1%
78	Calais · runner 5	28:31	71–81	<1%	<1%
79	Winthrop · runner 6	28:47	72–81	<1%	<1%
80	Maranacook · runner 6	28:48	73–81	<1%	<1%
81	Waynflete · runner 7	29:05	74–82	<1%	<1%
82	Winthrop · runner 7	29:51	78–82	<1%	<1%

Show all 82 runners

Chances, not calls: 4,000 simulated races. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Qualified teams run the runners who ran for them at their regional (7 at most); individual qualifiers run for themselves and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete.