We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Class B Girls · State meet

11 teams and 16 individual qualifiers. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win and finish top 3, and every runner.

Frozen Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM · the numbers we'll grade after the race

Sat Oct 31Cony High School, AugustaHow we got the numbers

Teams11

Runners92

FieldRegionals qualifiers

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 24

Course+36 s vs median

Sat forecast44°F · no heat cost

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Cony (Augusta) · State course (2025-) rated +36 s vs a median Maine course. Sat 10 AM–1 PM forecast: 44°F, dew point 24°F, wind 12 mph, no rain expected · no heat cost.

A close race at the top: Yarmouth (est. 32%) and Freeport (est. 31%). Why Yarmouth: Freeport's five average 5 s per runner faster, but Yarmouth's runners land in better places, and other teams' runners in between decide it. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 104 s (Freeport: 178 s).

Closest projected battle: Cape Elizabeth and Mt. Desert Island are tied on projected points (101); the 6th runner breaks a tie.

In the fight for the top 3: Freeport est. 79%; Yarmouth est. 80%; Cape Elizabeth est. 70%; Mt. Desert Island est. 55%.

Projected individual winner: Lincoln Academy · runner 1, est. 42% to win; 6 runners have a better than even chance of the top 10.

Team projection · free11 teams

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	Pts	Scoring five (places)
1	FreeportSouth · finish 1–4	31%	79%	84	6 · 9 · 11 · 13 · 57
2	YarmouthSouth · finish 1–4	32%	80%	86	5 · 8 · 22 · 32 · 35
3	Cape ElizabethSouth · finish 1–5	23%	70%	101	14 · 19 · 20 · 29 · 38
↑ Top 3: the state-meet trophies
4	Mt. Desert IslandNorth · finish 1–5	12%	55%	101	3 · 7 · 28 · 37 · 48
5	Presque IsleNorth · finish 3–6	2%	14%	127	4 · 12 · 24 · 42 · 72
6	CaribouNorth · finish 5–8	<1%	<1%	162	2 · 17 · 33 · 70 · 78
7	Lincoln AcademySouth · finish 5–8	<1%	1%	167	1 · 15 · 45 · 59 · 83
8	John BapstNorth · finish 7–11	<1%	<1%	207	21 · 31 · 49 · 68 · 86
9	YorkSouth · finish 7–11	<1%	<1%	215	23 · 36 · 52 · 76 · 79
10	WatervilleNorth · finish 7–11	<1%	<1%	217	26 · 54 · 58 · 60 · 64
11	GreelySouth · finish 8–11	<1%	<1%	233	46 · 50 · 56 · 62 · 74

Order = projected finish (points). "Finish a–b" = where the team lands in 8 of 10 simulated races. Region = the regional it qualified from.

Every runner · by school and number92 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 10 est.	Win est.
1	Lincoln Academy · runner 1	19:06	1–7	95%	42%
2	Caribou · runner 1	19:27	1–11	89%	24%
3	Mt. Desert Island · runner 1	20:23	2–24	57%	4%
4	Presque Isle · runner 1	20:24	2–24	57%	5%
5	Yarmouth · runner 1	20:27	2–24	52%	4%
6	Freeport · runner 1	20:28	3–25	53%	3%
7	Mt. Desert Island · runner 2	20:42	3–29	43%	2%
8	Yarmouth · runner 2	20:43	4–29	42%	2%
9	Freeport · runner 2	20:47	4–30	40%	1%
10	Ellsworth · runner 1individual	20:49	4–31	38%	2%
11	Freeport · runner 3	20:49	4–31	36%	1%
12	Presque Isle · runner 2	20:50	4–31	37%	1%
13	Freeport · runner 4	20:56	5–32	33%	1%
14	Cape Elizabeth · runner 1	21:01	5–34	30%	1%
15	Lincoln Academy · runner 2	21:02	5–35	29%	<1%
16	Morse · runner 1individual	21:04	5–35	28%	<1%
17	Caribou · runner 2	21:05	6–35	26%	<1%
18	Nokomis · runner 1individual	21:12	6–37	22%	<1%
19	Cape Elizabeth · runner 2	21:17	7–39	20%	<1%
20	Cape Elizabeth · runner 3	21:18	6–38	20%	<1%
21	John Bapst · runner 1	21:18	7–39	19%	<1%
22	Yarmouth · runner 3	21:22	8–41	17%	<1%
23	York · runner 1	21:30	9–43	14%	<1%
24	Presque Isle · runner 3	21:31	9–43	13%	<1%
25	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 1individual	21:36	9–44	12%	<1%
26	Waterville · runner 1	21:38	10–44	11%	<1%
27	Wells · runner 1individual	21:47	12–47	8%	<1%
28	Mt. Desert Island · runner 3	21:49	12–47	8%	<1%
29	Cape Elizabeth · runner 4	21:50	12–48	8%	<1%
30	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 2individual	21:52	13–48	7%	<1%
31	John Bapst · runner 2	22:04	15–52	4%	<1%
32	Yarmouth · runner 4	22:05	15–52	4%	<1%
33	Caribou · runner 3	22:06	15–53	4%	<1%
34	Poland · runner 1individual	22:10	17–54	3%	<1%
35	Yarmouth · runner 5	22:11	17–53	4%	<1%
36	York · runner 2	22:18	19–56	2%	<1%
37	Mt. Desert Island · runner 4	22:24	20–58	2%	<1%
38	Cape Elizabeth · runner 5	22:31	22–60	1%	<1%
39	Cape Elizabeth · runner 6	22:32	22–60	1%	<1%
40	Cony · runner 1individual	22:32	22–60	1%	<1%
41	Yarmouth · runner 6	22:33	22–59	1%	<1%
42	Presque Isle · runner 4	22:39	24–62	1%	<1%
43	Cape Elizabeth · runner 7	22:40	23–62	<1%	<1%
44	Medomak Valley · runner 1individual	22:42	25–62	<1%	<1%
45	Lincoln Academy · runner 3	22:46	25–64	<1%	<1%
46	Greely · runner 1	22:46	26–63	<1%	<1%
47	Old Town · runner 1individual	22:49	27–64	<1%	<1%
48	Mt. Desert Island · runner 5	22:56	28–66	<1%	<1%
49	John Bapst · runner 3	22:58	29–66	<1%	<1%
50	Greely · runner 2	23:01	30–67	<1%	<1%
51	Mt. Desert Island · runner 6	23:04	31–68	<1%	<1%
52	York · runner 3	23:06	31–68	<1%	<1%
53	Mt. Desert Island · runner 7	23:11	32–70	<1%	<1%
54	Waterville · runner 2	23:15	33–71	<1%	<1%
55	Yarmouth · runner 7	23:22	35–72	<1%	<1%
56	Greely · runner 3	23:23	36–73	<1%	<1%
57	Freeport · runner 5	23:26	36–73	<1%	<1%
58	Waterville · runner 3	23:33	39–74	<1%	<1%
59	Lincoln Academy · runner 4	23:33	38–76	<1%	<1%
60	Waterville · runner 4	23:42	41–77	<1%	<1%
61	Ellsworth · runner 2individual	23:50	44–79	<1%	<1%
62	Greely · runner 4	23:52	44–78	<1%	<1%
63	Freeport · runner 6	23:54	45–79	<1%	<1%
64	Waterville · runner 5	23:55	45–78	<1%	<1%
65	Lawrence · runner 1individual	23:58	46–79	<1%	<1%
66	Freeport · runner 7	24:05	47–80	<1%	<1%
67	Ellsworth · runner 3individual	24:08	49–81	<1%	<1%
68	John Bapst · runner 4	24:14	51–82	<1%	<1%
69	Hermon · runner 1individual	24:15	51–82	<1%	<1%
70	Caribou · runner 4	24:22	52–83	<1%	<1%
71	Cony · runner 2individual	24:24	53–84	<1%	<1%
72	Presque Isle · runner 5	24:26	54–84	<1%	<1%
73	Presque Isle · runner 6	24:29	55–85	<1%	<1%
74	Greely · runner 5	24:29	55–84	<1%	<1%
75	Greely · runner 6	24:32	55–85	<1%	<1%
76	York · runner 4	24:32	55–85	<1%	<1%
77	Gardiner · runner 1individual	24:33	56–85	<1%	<1%
78	Caribou · runner 5	24:45	59–86	<1%	<1%
79	York · runner 5	24:54	61–87	<1%	<1%
80	Waterville · runner 6	24:56	62–87	<1%	<1%
81	York · runner 6	24:59	62–87	<1%	<1%
82	Waterville · runner 7	25:00	63–88	<1%	<1%
83	Lincoln Academy · runner 5	25:03	63–88	<1%	<1%
84	York · runner 7	25:14	67–89	<1%	<1%
85	Presque Isle · runner 7	25:23	69–89	<1%	<1%
86	John Bapst · runner 5	25:27	69–90	<1%	<1%
87	Caribou · runner 6	25:32	71–90	<1%	<1%
88	Lincoln Academy · runner 6	25:36	71–90	<1%	<1%
89	Greely · runner 7	26:08	78–91	<1%	<1%
90	Caribou · runner 7	26:34	83–92	<1%	<1%
91	John Bapst · runner 6	26:39	84–92	<1%	<1%
92	Lincoln Academy · runner 7	27:00	86–92	<1%	<1%

Show all 92 runners

Chances, not calls: 4,000 simulated races. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Qualified teams run the runners who ran for them at their regional (7 at most); individual qualifiers run for themselves and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete.