We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

← State meet · Class A · Girls

Class A Girls · State meet

13 teams and 9 individual qualifiers. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win and finish top 3, and every runner.

Frozen Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM · the numbers we'll grade after the race

Sat Oct 31Cony High School, AugustaHow we got the numbers

Teams13

Runners98

FieldRegionals qualifiers

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 24

Course+36 s vs median

Sat forecast44°F · no heat cost

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Cony (Augusta) · State course (2025-) rated +36 s vs a median Maine course. Sat 10 AM–1 PM forecast: 44°F, dew point 24°F, wind 12 mph, no rain expected · no heat cost.

A close race at the top: Portland (est. 35%) and Falmouth (est. 34%). Why Portland: Falmouth's five average 14 s per runner faster, but Portland's runners land in better places, and other teams' runners in between decide it. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 175 s (Falmouth: 214 s).

Closest projected battle: Portland vs Hampden Academy, 1 point apart (88 to 89).

In the fight for the top 3: Hampden Academy est. 73%; Thornton Academy est. 46%.

Projected individual winner: Falmouth · runner 1, est. 41% to win; 6 runners have a better than even chance of the top 10.

Team projection · free13 teams

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	Pts	Scoring five (places)
1	FalmouthSouth · finish 1–4	34%	87%	75	1 · 5 · 7 · 28 · 39
2	PortlandSouth · finish 1–4	35%	84%	88	2 · 6 · 17 · 34 · 36
3	Hampden AcademyNorth · finish 1–4	21%	73%	89	3 · 20 · 21 · 24 · 29
↑ Top 3: the state-meet trophies
4	Thornton AcademySouth · finish 2–5	9%	46%	95	10 · 11 · 16 · 27 · 37
5	MassabesicSouth · finish 4–8	<1%	6%	144	9 · 19 · 31 · 35 · 61
6	CheverusSouth · finish 5–8	<1%	2%	167	4 · 22 · 43 · 44 · 69
7	Camden HillsNorth · finish 5–8	<1%	2%	179	8 · 32 · 45 · 51 · 55
8	MarshwoodSouth · finish 7–11	<1%	<1%	214	23 · 26 · 48 · 64 · 73
9	Fryeburg AcademySouth · finish 7–11	<1%	<1%	219	12 · 42 · 49 · 57 · 77
10	Mt. AraratNorth · finish 8–12	<1%	<1%	240	14 · 25 · 70 · 71 · 85
11	ScarboroughSouth · finish 8–12	<1%	<1%	271	52 · 54 · 59 · 60 · 66
12	BrunswickNorth · finish 10–13	<1%	<1%	276	13 · 62 · 74 · 76 · 79
13	BangorNorth · finish 11–13	<1%	<1%	304	30 · 65 · 78 · 80 · 83

Order = projected finish (points). "Finish a–b" = where the team lands in 8 of 10 simulated races. Region = the regional it qualified from.

Every runner · by school and number98 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 10 est.	Win est.
1	Falmouth · runner 1	18:53	1–6	97%	41%
2	Portland · runner 1	19:17	1–9	93%	22%
3	Hampden Academy · runner 1	19:28	1–10	90%	16%
4	Cheverus · runner 1	19:40	1–13	85%	12%
5	Falmouth · runner 2	20:22	3–23	60%	2%
6	Portland · runner 2	20:34	4–26	51%	1%
7	Falmouth · runner 3	20:38	4–27	48%	1%
8	Camden Hills · runner 1	20:49	5–30	40%	<1%
9	Massabesic · runner 1	20:56	5–33	34%	<1%
10	Thornton Academy · runner 1	20:59	5–34	32%	<1%
11	Thornton Academy · runner 2	21:06	6–36	27%	<1%
12	Fryeburg Academy · runner 1	21:07	6–36	28%	<1%
13	Brunswick · runner 1	21:09	6–37	25%	<1%
14	Mt. Ararat · runner 1	21:11	6–37	26%	<1%
15	Kennebunk · runner 1individual	21:12	6–37	24%	<1%
16	Thornton Academy · runner 3	21:18	7–40	20%	<1%
17	Portland · runner 3	21:19	7–41	21%	<1%
18	South Portland · runner 1individual	21:21	8–40	19%	<1%
19	Massabesic · runner 2	21:23	7–42	18%	<1%
20	Hampden Academy · runner 2	21:26	8–42	16%	<1%
21	Hampden Academy · runner 3	21:28	9–43	16%	<1%
22	Cheverus · runner 2	21:28	8–43	15%	<1%
23	Marshwood · runner 1	21:33	9–44	13%	<1%
24	Hampden Academy · runner 4	21:37	10–46	12%	<1%
25	Mt. Ararat · runner 2	21:44	10–48	11%	<1%
26	Marshwood · runner 2	21:51	12–51	8%	<1%
27	Thornton Academy · runner 4	21:58	13–53	6%	<1%
28	Falmouth · runner 4	22:01	14–54	5%	<1%
29	Hampden Academy · runner 5	22:01	14–53	6%	<1%
30	Bangor · runner 1	22:02	14–53	5%	<1%
31	Massabesic · runner 3	22:05	15–54	5%	<1%
32	Camden Hills · runner 2	22:06	14–55	5%	<1%
33	Deering · runner 1individual	22:06	15–55	4%	<1%
34	Portland · runner 4	22:07	15–55	5%	<1%
35	Massabesic · runner 4	22:11	16–57	4%	<1%
36	Portland · runner 5	22:12	16–57	3%	<1%
37	Thornton Academy · runner 5	22:19	19–59	2%	<1%
38	Portland · runner 6	22:23	18–60	2%	<1%
39	Falmouth · runner 5	22:26	19–61	3%	<1%
40	Portland · runner 7	22:31	20–62	1%	<1%
41	Thornton Academy · runner 6	22:34	22–63	1%	<1%
42	Fryeburg Academy · runner 2	22:36	22–63	1%	<1%
43	Cheverus · runner 3	22:40	24–64	1%	<1%
44	Cheverus · runner 4	22:42	23–65	1%	<1%
45	Camden Hills · runner 3	22:43	24–65	<1%	<1%
46	Hampden Academy · runner 6	22:44	24–65	<1%	<1%
47	Hampden Academy · runner 7	22:51	26–67	<1%	<1%
48	Marshwood · runner 3	22:51	26–66	<1%	<1%
49	Fryeburg Academy · runner 3	22:51	26–67	<1%	<1%
50	Falmouth · runner 6	22:52	27–67	<1%	<1%
51	Camden Hills · runner 4	22:57	29–69	<1%	<1%
52	Scarborough · runner 1	22:58	29–69	<1%	<1%
53	Oxford Hills · runner 1individual	22:59	29–69	<1%	<1%
54	Scarborough · runner 2	23:01	29–69	<1%	<1%
55	Camden Hills · runner 5	23:06	31–70	<1%	<1%
56	Camden Hills · runner 6	23:07	32–70	<1%	<1%
57	Fryeburg Academy · runner 4	23:11	33–71	<1%	<1%
58	Falmouth · runner 7	23:15	34–73	<1%	<1%
59	Scarborough · runner 3	23:15	34–73	<1%	<1%
60	Scarborough · runner 4	23:25	23–81	2%	<1%
61	Massabesic · runner 5	23:27	37–75	<1%	<1%
62	Brunswick · runner 2	23:27	35–76	<1%	<1%
63	Mt. Blue · runner 1individual	23:30	39–75	<1%	<1%
64	Marshwood · runner 4	23:34	40–77	<1%	<1%
65	Bangor · runner 2	23:36	40–76	<1%	<1%
66	Scarborough · runner 5	23:39	42–77	<1%	<1%
67	Oxford Hills · runner 2individual	23:55	47–80	<1%	<1%
68	Messalonskee · runner 1individual	23:58	47–80	<1%	<1%
69	Cheverus · runner 5	24:00	48–81	<1%	<1%
70	Mt. Ararat · runner 3	24:16	52–83	<1%	<1%
71	Mt. Ararat · runner 4	24:18	55–83	<1%	<1%
72	Mt. Blue · runner 2individual	24:20	55–84	<1%	<1%
73	Marshwood · runner 5	24:21	55–83	<1%	<1%
74	Brunswick · runner 3	24:22	55–84	<1%	<1%
75	Camden Hills · runner 7	24:29	55–85	<1%	<1%
76	Brunswick · runner 4	24:36	58–86	<1%	<1%
77	Fryeburg Academy · runner 5	24:38	60–86	<1%	<1%
78	Bangor · runner 3	24:39	60–86	<1%	<1%
79	Brunswick · runner 5	24:40	60–86	<1%	<1%
80	Bangor · runner 4	24:44	61–87	<1%	<1%
81	Mt. Blue · runner 3individual	24:51	63–87	<1%	<1%
82	Thornton Academy · runner 7	24:58	65–88	<1%	<1%
83	Bangor · runner 5	25:05	66–89	<1%	<1%
84	Brunswick · runner 6	25:19	70–90	<1%	<1%
85	Mt. Ararat · runner 5	25:29	72–91	<1%	<1%
86	Mt. Ararat · runner 6	25:42	75–92	<1%	<1%
87	Brunswick · runner 7	25:54	77–93	<1%	<1%
88	Massabesic · runner 6	25:55	77–93	<1%	<1%
89	Marshwood · runner 6	26:14	80–94	<1%	<1%
90	Scarborough · runner 6	26:15	80–94	<1%	<1%
91	Mt. Ararat · runner 7	26:27	82–95	<1%	<1%
92	Cheverus · runner 6	26:35	83–95	<1%	<1%
93	Cheverus · runner 7	26:46	85–95	<1%	<1%
94	Scarborough · runner 7	27:17	88–97	<1%	<1%
95	Fryeburg Academy · runner 6	27:36	90–97	<1%	<1%
96	Fryeburg Academy · runner 7	27:37	90–97	<1%	<1%
97	Bangor · runner 6	28:32	94–98	<1%	<1%
98	Bangor · runner 7	28:42	95–98	<1%	<1%

Show all 98 runners

Chances, not calls: 4,000 simulated races. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Qualified teams run the runners who ran for them at their regional (7 at most); individual qualifiers run for themselves and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete.