Maine high school cross country

2026 season · team scores recomputed from every finish order · runners shown by school and number

We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Maine high school cross country · 2026 · Regionals

Regionals: who wins each race

All 12 regional races, from every 2026 result we have and the official entry lists (entered runners only). Chances, not calls: each comes from 4,000 simulated races.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 2412 races738 boys enteredHow we got the numbers Graded: how we did

Results are in · graded

How we did: every team and every runner in all 12 races, what we projected vs what happened.See it →

Next · State meet · Sat Oct 31 · Cony

Every qualified team's chance to win its class.State meet →

Showing 6 of 6 races · Boys · results through Oct 20 · entry lists as of Thu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

North · Belfast · in the numbers

Troy Howard (Belfast) rated -37 s vs a median Maine course

Weather: not stored in the freeze

South · Cumberland · in the numbers

Twin Brook (Cumberland) rated +3 s vs a median Maine course

Weather: not stored in the freeze

Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site. Every input we use.

Closest races to win

Class A NorthHampden Academy est. 31% · Camden Hills est. 31%

Class A SouthPortland est. 70% · Falmouth est. 10%

Class B NorthCaribou est. 83% · Presque Isle est. 9%

On the state-meet line

SumnerClass C North · est. 47% to States

Mt. Desert IslandClass B North · est. 53% to States

Mt. AraratClass A North · est. 44% to States

Medomak ValleyClass B North · est. 43% to States

WatervilleClass B North · est. 43% to States

MCIClass C North · est. 39% to States

Class A North · BoysBelfast

Projected team (by points)Chance to win est.

1Camden Hills31%

2Hampden Academy31%

3Messalonskee15%

A close race at the top: Hampden Academy (est. 31%) and Camden Hills (est. 31%).

12 teams · top 6 to States113 entered

Every team, the preview →

Class A South · BoysCumberland

Projected team (by points)Chance to win est.

1Portland70%

2Thornton Academy8%

3Falmouth10%

Portland lead the projection clearly (est. 70% to win).

17 teams · top 9 to States166 entered

Every team, the preview →

Class B North · BoysBelfast

Projected team (by points)Chance to win est.

1Caribou83%

2Presque Isle9%

3John Bapst8%

Caribou lead the projection clearly (est. 83% to win).

14 teams · top 7 to States122 entered

Every team, the preview →

Class B South · BoysCumberland

Projected team (by points)Chance to win est.

1Yarmouth92%

2Freeport6%

3Cape Elizabeth<1%

Yarmouth lead the projection clearly (est. 92% to win).

11 teams · top 6 to States109 entered

Every team, the preview →

Class C North · BoysBelfast

Projected team (by points)Chance to win est.

1Houlton/GHCA93%

2George Stevens Academy6%

3Orono1%

Houlton/GHCA lead the projection clearly (est. 93% to win).

11 teams · top 6 to States94 entered

Every team, the preview →

Class C South · BoysCumberland

Projected team (by points)Chance to win est.

1Winthrop96%

2Maranacook3%

3Carrabec<1%

Winthrop lead the projection clearly (est. 96% to win).

14 teams · top 7 to States134 entered

Every team, the preview →

How these are made: each runner's projected time on the regional course (Belfast for the North, Cumberland for the South) from their 2026 races, with course, weather, race day and season fitness taken out. Then 4,000 simulated races: every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do, more for runners with few races this season, and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entries: the official regional entry lists; each school's 7 best entered runners run. Team line: half of the teams with five or more runners (at least four) go on to the state meet; individuals: the top 30 in each race. The MPA decides who qualifies. More on how we got the numbers.