We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Class C South Boys

21 schools, 134 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Twin Brook Recreation Area, CumberlandHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)14

To the state meettop 7 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered134

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course+3 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Twin Brook (Cumberland) rated +3 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

Winthrop lead the projection clearly (est. 96% to win). Why Winthrop: their scoring five average 68 s per runner faster than Maranacook's. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 114 s (Maranacook: 154 s).

Closest projected battle: Boothbay/Wiscasset vs Waynflete, 1 point apart (157 to 158).

On the state-meet line (top 7 go): Boothbay/Wiscasset est. 79%; Madison est. 26%.

Projected individual winner: Dirigo · runner 1, est. 45% to win; 29 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): no team's chances moved 5 points or more.

Team projection · free7 of 14 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	WinthropMVC · finish 1	96%	>99%	>99%	37	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 114 s
2	MaranacookMVC · finish 2–4	3%	80%	>99%	106	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 154 s
3	CarrabecMVC · finish 2–6	<1%	54%	98%	118	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 60 s
4	NYAWMC · finish 3–7	<1%	26%	96%	141	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 199 s
5	DirigoMVC · finish 3–7	<1%	27%	95%	146	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 264 s
6	Boothbay/WiscassetMVC · finish 4–8	<1%	8%	79%	157	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 149 s
7	WaynfleteWMC · finish 4–8	<1%	6%	84%	158	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 270 s
↑ State meet line: the top 7 teams
8	MadisonMVC · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	26%	199	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 288 s
9	Maine Coast WaldorfWMC · finish 7–10	<1%	<1%	18%	212	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 176 s
10	ValleyMVC · finish 8–10	<1%	<1%	4%	213	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 632 s
11	Traip AcademyWMC · finish 11–12	<1%	<1%	<1%	293	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 501 s
12	LisbonMVC · finish 12–13	<1%	<1%	<1%	333	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 202 s
13	Hall-DaleMVC · finish 12–13	<1%	<1%	<1%	350	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 338 s
14	Monmouth AcademyMVC · finish 14	<1%	<1%	<1%	404	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 1276 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Forest Hills, Mt. Abram, North Haven, Oak Hill, Old Orchard Beach, Richmond, Telstar.

Every runner · by school and number111 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Dirigo · runner 1	16:08	1–5	>99%	45%
2	Winthrop · runner 1	16:28	1–7	>99%	24%
3	Madison · runner 1	16:44	1–9	>99%	12%
4	Waynflete · runner 1	17:01	2–11	>99%	6%
5	Maranacook · runner 1	17:11	2–13	>99%	4%
6	Winthrop · runner 2	17:13	3–14	>99%	3%
7	NYA · runner 1	17:13	3–14	>99%	3%
8	Winthrop · runner 3	17:44	5–20	>99%	<1%
9	Winthrop · runner 4	17:49	5–21	99%	<1%
10	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 1	17:55	5–23	98%	<1%
11	Valley · runner 1	18:01	6–24	97%	<1%
12	Winthrop · runner 5	18:22	9–30	91%	<1%
13	Maranacook · runner 2	18:24	9–29	92%	<1%
14	Valley · runner 2	18:24	9–30	91%	<1%
15	Waynflete · runner 2	18:29	9–31	90%	<1%
16	Carrabec · runner 1	18:29	9–31	89%	<1%
17	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 1	18:34	9–32	86%	<1%
18	Carrabec · runner 2	18:35	10–32	86%	<1%
19	NYA · runner 2	18:35	10–33	86%	<1%
20	Old Orchard Beach · runner 1individual (no team score)	18:36	10–33	84%	<1%
21	Traip Academy · runner 1	18:39	10–34	83%	<1%
22	Dirigo · runner 2	18:40	10–34	82%	<1%
23	Waynflete · runner 3	18:49	12–37	76%	<1%
24	Maranacook · runner 3	18:54	13–37	74%	<1%
25	NYA · runner 3	18:54	13–37	72%	<1%
26	Valley · runner 3	18:56	13–39	70%	<1%
27	Carrabec · runner 3	18:57	13–39	69%	<1%
28	Carrabec · runner 4	19:05	15–40	64%	<1%
29	Maranacook · runner 4	19:05	15–40	63%	<1%
30	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 2	19:22	19–45	46%	<1%
31	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 3	19:24	19–46	43%	<1%
32	Carrabec · runner 5	19:29	20–47	40%	<1%
33	Traip Academy · runner 2	19:33	21–48	36%	<1%
34	Winthrop · runner 6	19:33	21–48	35%	<1%
35	Dirigo · runner 3	19:38	22–50	30%	<1%
36	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 2	19:39	23–50	29%	<1%
37	Hall-Dale · runner 1	19:41	23–50	28%	<1%
38	Maranacook · runner 5	19:45	24–51	25%	<1%
39	Maranacook · runner 6	19:46	25–51	24%	<1%
40	Madison · runner 2	19:58	27–55	18%	<1%
41	Forest Hills · runner 1individual (no team score)	20:04	28–57	14%	<1%
42	Dirigo · runner 4Little data	20:05	14–75	30%	<1%
43	Maranacook · runner 7	20:12	31–59	9%	<1%
44	NYA · runner 4	20:22	34–61	6%	<1%
45	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 4	20:23	34–61	6%	<1%
46	Madison · runner 3	20:23	34–62	6%	<1%
47	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 5	20:24	34–62	6%	<1%
48	Lisbon · runner 1	20:26	34–63	6%	<1%
49	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 3	20:29	35–63	4%	<1%
50	Winthrop · runner 7	20:30	36–64	4%	<1%
51	NYA · runner 5	20:32	36–64	4%	<1%
52	Dirigo · runner 5	20:32	36–64	4%	<1%
53	Madison · runner 4	20:33	36–64	4%	<1%
54	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 4	20:42	39–67	2%	<1%
55	NYA · runner 6	20:50	40–69	1%	<1%
56	Oak Hill · runner 1individual (no team score)	21:00	43–71	<1%	<1%
57	Mt. Abram · runner 1individual (no team score)	21:01	43–72	<1%	<1%
58	Waynflete · runner 4	21:03	44–72	<1%	<1%
59	Dirigo · runner 6	21:06	45–73	<1%	<1%
60	Carrabec · runner 6	21:07	45–74	<1%	<1%
61	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 6	21:14	47–75	<1%	<1%
62	Dirigo · runner 7	21:17	48–75	<1%	<1%
63	NYA · runner 7	21:20	49–76	<1%	<1%
64	Monmouth Academy · runner 1	21:24	50–77	<1%	<1%
65	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 5	21:30	51–78	<1%	<1%
66	Madison · runner 5	21:31	51–78	<1%	<1%
67	Waynflete · runner 5	21:31	52–78	<1%	<1%
68	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 7	21:37	54–79	<1%	<1%
69	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 6	21:43	55–80	<1%	<1%
70	Lisbon · runner 2	21:47	56–81	<1%	<1%
71	Carrabec · runner 7	21:51	57–82	<1%	<1%
72	Richmond · runner 1individual (no team score)	21:54	58–82	<1%	<1%
73	Lisbon · runner 3	21:54	58–82	<1%	<1%
74	Forest Hills · runner 2individual (no team score)	21:56	58–83	<1%	<1%
75	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 7	21:58	59–83	<1%	<1%
76	Waynflete · runner 6	22:03	61–83	<1%	<1%
77	Hall-Dale · runner 2	22:04	61–83	<1%	<1%
78	Traip Academy · runner 3	22:12	62–84	<1%	<1%
79	Oak Hill · runner 2individual (no team score)	22:14	63–84	<1%	<1%
80	Mt. Abram · runner 2individual (no team score)	22:18	64–85	<1%	<1%
81	Richmond · runner 2individual (no team score)	22:19	65–85	<1%	<1%
82	Valley · runner 4	22:25	66–86	<1%	<1%
83	Waynflete · runner 7	22:42	71–88	<1%	<1%
84	North Haven · runner 1individual (no team score)	22:48	71–88	<1%	<1%
85	Mt. Abram · runner 3individual (no team score)	23:29	81–93	<1%	<1%
86	Monmouth Academy · runner 2	23:34	82–93	<1%	<1%
87	Lisbon · runner 4	23:37	82–93	<1%	<1%
88	Telstar · runner 1Little dataindividual (no team score)	23:46	70–98	<1%	<1%
89	Lisbon · runner 5	23:48	83–94	<1%	<1%
90	Forest Hills · runner 3individual (no team score)	23:49	83–94	<1%	<1%
91	Madison · runner 6	23:51	84–94	<1%	<1%
92	Hall-Dale · runner 3	24:10	86–96	<1%	<1%
93	Hall-Dale · runner 4	24:12	86–96	<1%	<1%
94	Lisbon · runner 6	24:25	88–96	<1%	<1%
95	Traip Academy · runner 4	25:01	91–98	<1%	<1%
96	Lisbon · runner 7	25:08	92–99	<1%	<1%
97	Hall-Dale · runner 5Little data	25:19	86–101	<1%	<1%
98	Oak Hill · runner 3individual (no team score)	25:48	95–100	<1%	<1%
99	Hall-Dale · runner 6	25:55	96–101	<1%	<1%
100	Monmouth Academy · runner 3Little data	26:09	91–103	<1%	<1%
101	Traip Academy · runner 5	27:00	99–103	<1%	<1%
102	Madison · runner 7	27:23	100–104	<1%	<1%
103	Old Orchard Beach · runner 2individual (no team score)	28:19	102–106	<1%	<1%
104	Traip Academy · runner 6	28:28	102–107	<1%	<1%
105	Valley · runner 5	28:33	102–106	<1%	<1%
106	Mt. Abram · runner 4Little dataindividual (no team score)	29:01	101–108	<1%	<1%
107	Oak Hill · runner 4individual (no team score)	29:11	104–107	<1%	<1%
108	Forest Hills · runner 4individual (no team score)	30:56	107–109	<1%	<1%
109	Monmouth Academy · runner 4	31:18	107–110	<1%	<1%
110	Telstar · runner 2Little dataindividual (no team score)	32:41	108–110	<1%	<1%
111	Monmouth Academy · runner 5	42:41	111–111	<1%	<1%

Show all 111 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.