We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Dirigo Boys
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 14 (146 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)3–7
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.27%
To States est.95%97% before the conference meets
Projected points146
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:01
Pack: 1st to 5th runner264 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 22 · 35 · 42 · 52
6th runner behind the 5th33 s
Against the teams around them
Boothbay/Wiscasset (projected 6)+29 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Waynflete158 pts
Their points vs the last team in-12
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Dirigo runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 16:08 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #22 overall | 18:40 | 82%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #35 overall | 19:38 | 30%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4Little dataSCORERprojected #42 overall | 20:05 | 30%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #52 overall | 20:32 | 4%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #59 overall | 21:06 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #62 overall | 21:17 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.