We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Dirigo Girls
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 5 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 11 (176 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)7
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.3%3% before the conference meets
Projected points176
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)26:13
Pack: 1st to 5th runner563 s
Scoring five's projected places5 · 30 · 46 · 64 · 74
6th runner behind the 5thno 6th runner
Against the teams around them
Winthrop (projected 6)-73 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Winthrop141 pts
Their points vs the last team in+35
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Dirigo runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #5 overall | 21:19 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #30 overall | 24:36 | 47%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #46 overall | 25:58 | 6%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #64 overall | 28:30 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #74 overall | 30:42 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.