We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

← All regionals · Class C South · Girls

Class C South Girls

19 schools, 97 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Twin Brook Recreation Area, CumberlandHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)11

To the state meettop 6 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered97

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course+10 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Twin Brook (Cumberland) rated +10 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

Maine Coast Waldorf lead the projection clearly (est. 74% to win). Why Maine Coast Waldorf: their scoring five average 20 s per runner faster than NYA's. They place ahead of NYA at runners #1, #2, #3 and #5. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 127 s (NYA: 149 s).

Closest projected battle: Carrabec vs Monmouth Academy, 4 points apart (212 to 216).

The state-meet line (top 6) looks settled: no team is between est. 20% and est. 80%.

Projected individual winner: Maranacook · runner 1, est. 80% to win; 29 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): no team's chances moved 5 points or more.

Team projection · free6 of 11 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	Maine Coast WaldorfWMC · finish 1–2	74%	>99%	>99%	65	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 127 s
2	NYAWMC · finish 1–3	23%	96%	>99%	76	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 149 s
3	MaranacookMVC · finish 2–5	2%	62%	>99%	99	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 352 s
4	WaynfleteWMC · finish 3–5	<1%	30%	>99%	110	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 306 s
5	Boothbay/WiscassetMVC · finish 3–6	<1%	12%	>99%	118	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 222 s
6	WinthropMVC · finish 5–6	<1%	<1%	98%	141	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 422 s
↑ State meet line: the top 6 teams
7	DirigoMVC · finish 7	<1%	<1%	3%	176	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 563 s
8	CarrabecMVC · finish 8–10	<1%	<1%	<1%	212	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 424 s
9	Monmouth AcademyMVC · finish 8–10	<1%	<1%	<1%	216	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 544 s
10	Forest HillsMVC · finish 9–10	<1%	<1%	<1%	227	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 757 s
11	LisbonMVC · finish 11	<1%	<1%	<1%	275	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 832 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Hall-Dale, Madison, Oak Hill, Old Orchard Beach, Richmond, Telstar, Traip Academy, Valley.

Every runner · by school and number88 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Maranacook · runner 1	19:03	1–2	>99%	80%
2	Madison · runner 1individual (no team score)	20:38	2–8	>99%	8%
3	Winthrop · runner 1	21:05	2–11	>99%	3%
4	Traip Academy · runner 1individual (no team score)	21:17	2–12	>99%	2%
5	Dirigo · runner 1	21:19	2–12	>99%	1%
6	Waynflete · runner 1	21:30	3–13	>99%	1%
7	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 1	21:49	3–16	>99%	<1%
8	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 2	21:53	4–17	>99%	<1%
9	NYA · runner 1	21:59	4–18	>99%	<1%
10	Monmouth Academy · runner 1	22:23	6–21	99%	<1%
11	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 1	22:27	3–27	94%	2%
12	Hall-Dale · runner 1individual (no team score)	22:28	6–22	99%	<1%
13	Forest Hills · runner 1	22:39	7–23	99%	<1%
14	Waynflete · runner 2	22:44	7–24	98%	<1%
15	NYA · runner 2	22:51	8–25	97%	<1%
16	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 3	22:56	8–26	96%	<1%
17	NYA · runner 3	23:10	10–28	94%	<1%
18	Winthrop · runner 2	23:12	10–29	93%	<1%
19	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 2	23:27	12–31	88%	<1%
20	Maranacook · runner 2	23:29	12–31	88%	<1%
21	NYA · runner 4	23:34	12–32	87%	<1%
22	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 3	23:47	14–35	80%	<1%
23	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 4	23:49	14–34	79%	<1%
24	Valley · runner 1individual (no team score)	23:51	14–35	77%	<1%
25	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 5	23:55	15–36	77%	<1%
26	Waynflete · runner 3	24:10	17–38	65%	<1%
27	Carrabec · runner 1	24:13	17–38	64%	<1%
28	Maranacook · runner 3	24:27	19–41	54%	<1%
29	NYA · runner 5	24:28	19–41	52%	<1%
30	Dirigo · runner 2	24:36	20–42	47%	<1%
31	Hall-Dale · runner 2individual (no team score)	24:36	20–42	48%	<1%
32	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 6	24:37	21–42	46%	<1%
33	Maranacook · runner 4	24:54	23–45	33%	<1%
34	Maranacook · runner 5	24:55	23–45	33%	<1%
35	Richmond · runner 1individual (no team score)	25:02	24–46	29%	<1%
36	Maine Coast Waldorf · runner 7	25:06	24–46	27%	<1%
37	Lisbon · runner 1	25:09	25–47	24%	<1%
38	Waynflete · runner 4	25:15	27–47	21%	<1%
39	Valley · runner 2individual (no team score)	25:24	28–48	17%	<1%
40	Hall-Dale · runner 3individual (no team score)	25:25	28–49	16%	<1%
41	Carrabec · runner 2	25:34	30–50	12%	<1%
42	Winthrop · runner 3	25:40	30–50	10%	<1%
43	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 4	25:52	33–52	6%	<1%
44	NYA · runner 6	25:57	33–53	6%	<1%
45	Forest Hills · runner 2	25:58	33–52	5%	<1%
46	Dirigo · runner 3	25:58	33–53	6%	<1%
47	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 5	26:09	35–54	4%	<1%
48	Monmouth Academy · runner 2Little data	26:33	22–68	19%	<1%
49	Waynflete · runner 5	26:36	39–57	1%	<1%
50	NYA · runner 7	26:48	41–59	<1%	<1%
51	Winthrop · runner 4	26:53	42–59	<1%	<1%
52	Old Orchard Beach · runner 1individual (no team score)	27:01	43–60	<1%	<1%
53	Carrabec · runner 3	27:14	45–62	<1%	<1%
54	Waynflete · runner 6	27:27	47–63	<1%	<1%
55	Oak Hill · runner 1individual (no team score)	27:34	48–64	<1%	<1%
56	Old Orchard Beach · runner 2individual (no team score)	27:36	48–64	<1%	<1%
57	Hall-Dale · runner 4individual (no team score)	27:42	49–65	<1%	<1%
58	Waynflete · runner 7	28:02	51–67	<1%	<1%
59	Winthrop · runner 5	28:08	51–67	<1%	<1%
60	Boothbay/Wiscasset · runner 6	28:20	53–69	<1%	<1%
61	Winthrop · runner 6	28:26	54–69	<1%	<1%
62	Valley · runner 3individual (no team score)	28:28	50–72	<1%	<1%
63	Monmouth Academy · runner 3	28:29	54–70	<1%	<1%
64	Dirigo · runner 4	28:30	54–69	<1%	<1%
65	Carrabec · runner 4	28:44	56–71	<1%	<1%
66	Forest Hills · runner 3	28:49	57–71	<1%	<1%
67	Maranacook · runner 6	28:58	58–71	<1%	<1%
68	Telstar · runner 1No 2026 race yetindividual (no team score)	–	30–80	10%	<1%
69	Richmond · runner 2individual (no team score)	29:03	58–72	<1%	<1%
70	Winthrop · runner 7	29:25	61–73	<1%	<1%
71	Lisbon · runner 2	29:46	64–74	<1%	<1%
72	Monmouth Academy · runner 4	30:20	67–76	<1%	<1%
73	Madison · runner 2individual (no team score)	30:24	67–76	<1%	<1%
74	Dirigo · runner 5	30:42	69–77	<1%	<1%
75	Lisbon · runner 3	30:51	70–77	<1%	<1%
76	Carrabec · runner 5	31:17	72–78	<1%	<1%
77	Monmouth Academy · runner 5Little data	31:27	63–81	<1%	<1%
78	Lisbon · runner 4	32:47	76–81	<1%	<1%
79	Richmond · runner 3individual (no team score)	32:50	76–81	<1%	<1%
80	Forest Hills · runner 4Little data	33:17	73–84	<1%	<1%
81	Traip Academy · runner 2individual (no team score)	34:04	79–83	<1%	<1%
82	Madison · runner 3individual (no team score)	34:35	80–84	<1%	<1%
83	Forest Hills · runner 5	35:16	80–85	<1%	<1%
84	Monmouth Academy · runner 6	35:46	82–85	<1%	<1%
85	Richmond · runner 4individual (no team score)	36:11	82–85	<1%	<1%
86	Forest Hills · runner 6	38:15	86–88	<1%	<1%
87	Old Orchard Beach · runner 3individual (no team score)	38:21	86–88	<1%	<1%
88	Lisbon · runner 5	39:01	86–88	<1%	<1%

Show all 88 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.