We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Maranacook Girls
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish3 of 11 (99 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–5
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.2%
Top 3 est.62%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points99
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)23:22
Pack: 1st to 5th runner352 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 20 · 28 · 33 · 34
6th runner behind the 5th243 s
Against the teams around them
Waynflete (projected 4)+41 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Winthrop141 pts
Their points vs the last team in-42
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Maranacook runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 19:03 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #20 overall | 23:29 | 88%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #28 overall | 24:27 | 54%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #33 overall | 24:54 | 33%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #34 overall | 24:55 | 33%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #67 overall | 28:58 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.