Record · 2026
Every prediction is stored before kickoff and graded against the final score. Nothing is edited after the fact. Wondering what a good number is? How accurate are NFL prediction models?
Our picks
79–39
66.9% of 118 games · 1 tie pushed
Benchmark pick
78–40
same games · 66.1%
Graded
Weeks 1–8
weeks graded so far
Confident picks
69%
hit rate on 75%+ picks (26)
8
longest streak · current 0
9.9
avg. margin error (pts)
11.2
avg. total error (pts)
9–8
when we differed from the market · the market 8–9
65.0%
backtest 2010–2025 · the market 66.5% →
Record by kickoff slot and by pick
The same record, cut the ways models usually show a bias. the market = the benchmark pick over the same games. Small samples early; judge after a month.
| Kickoff | Ours | % | the market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday night | 5–2 | 71% | 3–4 |
| Sunday early (1:00) | 40–26 | 61% | 43–23 |
| Sunday late (4:00) | 24–5 | 83% | 24–5 |
| Sunday night | 6–2 | 75% | 4–4 |
| Monday night | 4–4 | 50% | 4–4 |
| Our pick was… | Ours | % | the market |
|---|---|---|---|
| picked the home team | 50–28 | 64% | 49–29 |
| picked the away team | 29–11 | 72% | 29–11 |
| picked the market pick | 70–31 | 69% | 70–31 |
| picked the other side | 9–8 | 53% | 8–9 |
Model vs. model + analyst layer
Since v0.4 the pick of record is the analyst-adjusted probability. The untouched model probability is stored and graded beside it, so the layer has to earn its keep. What it read and changed →
76–42
stats model alone
79–39
model + analyst (pick of record)
98
games the analyst moved
4–1
record when it flipped the pick
A 17-game season is a small sample: over the 272 games in a season the 95% margin on an accuracy figure is about ±6 points, so a season proves less than it looks. The backtest over 4,146 games is the fairer test of the method; this page is the live, pre-kickoff record.
Accuracy by week
Straight-up hit rate. Lighter bar = a week still being played. Hover a bar for the numbers.
Week 1Week 8
Does confidence mean anything?
Stated confidence vs. how often the pick was right. When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time?
Hit rate by confidence × week
Darker = the model was right more often. A healthy board is dark at the top, lighter at the bottom, in every column.
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
80%+
70–80%
60–70%
50–60%
Week by week
Click a week for its picks. Week 1 counts 14 of its 16 games: the two opening games (Wed 9/9 and Thu 9/10) kicked off before our first stored predictions, so they have no pick.
| Week | Games | Correct | Rate | Benchmark pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 14 | 9 | 64% | 11/14 |
| Week 2 | 16 | 10 | 62% | 11/16 |
| Week 3 | 16 | 10 | 62% | 9/16 |
| Week 4 | 16 | 12 | 75% | 9/16 |
| Week 5 | 15 | 9 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Week 6 | 14 | 8 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Week 7 | 14 | 10 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Week 8 | 14 | 11 | 79% | 11/14 |
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