Analyst · Week 9
The stats model is the foundation. This layer reads the week's news and forecasts, reports only what the model is not already counting, and moves the number by a capped amount — every claim linked to its source, every claim graded after the final.
Is the news layer helping?
Since the layer went live, over 305 graded claims:
- The adjusted forecast has been worse than the stats model alone — net change in squared error (Brier) of +0.252, where negative is better.
- 146 of 305 claims pushed the number toward the actual result.
- It changed the final pick in 5 games, and those flips went 4–1.
This is the whole test. News can't be backtested the way the base model was (2010–25), so the layer earns its place only forward, and only if it lowers the error over many games — not on any one result. Its job is to move the number toward the truth, not to rescue a pick: when it cut a heavy home pick by 10 points and the team still lost, the move was correct (it lowered the error) even though the pick was wrong — the base model had simply started too far above the market. Picks where we disagree with the market's final price are our weaker spot (about 44% in the backtest, versus 68% when we agree) — they're flagged “we differ” on the picks table so you can watch them.
What we do with the news, step by step
This page is the news layer's public notebook. In plain terms:
- Before kickoff, every run pulls the feeds and attaches new items to the games they concern. Items published after a game has started are never read: in-game news is not a prediction input.
- The reader turns new items into claims: a type (QB change, key starter out, resting starters…), a team, a player, a direction, and a confidence.
- The filters decide, in the same run, whether a claim is applied or declined. Declined if it is below the confidence floor for its type, if the model already counts it (the player is on the injury report, the QB is already the named starter), or if it is the kind of story that has no place (offseason hires, turf, "limited in practice").
- Applied claims move the probability right then, by a fixed number of points for the type, scaled by confidence, capped. That adjusted number is the pick. "Model 74% → analyst 76%" on a game below means exactly that.
- After the final, every claim is graded, applied or declined: did it point the right way, and did it lower the error? Declined claims are graded as if they had been applied, so we learn whether the filter was right to say no.
- Once a month, with enough graded cases, the rules change for future weeks: a type that keeps hurting loses weight; a rejection reason that keeps "would have helped" gets loosened. Past picks are never touched. Every rule change is dated in the changelog.
A claim only affects the game it is attached to. It does not carry into next week's model: a starter who misses Week 2 is caught by the injury report by then, and the model counts him there.
How it works
Sources: public news feeds; the National Weather Service forecast at kickoff for outdoor stadiums; the nflverse injury report and named starters are what the model already counts. The reader (one language-model call per game, only when there is new news) returns typed claims about things not already counted. A fixed table turns each claim into points, scaled by the reader's confidence, capped per type and ±10 in total. Weather is logged at zero weight until a season of grading says otherwise.
| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
Scorecard by claim type
After each final: did the move go the right way, and did it lower the squared error (Brier)? Negative Brier change is good. Types that don't earn their weight get zeroed at season's end.
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 205 | 180 | 1.8 | 84/180 | +0.303 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 56 | 52 | 0.4 | 24/52 | +0.043 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 30 | 23 | 1.1 | 13/23 | +0.017 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 21 | 21 | 5.5 | 12/21 | -0.106 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 5/8 | +0.006 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 8 | 8 | 0.7 | 4/8 | -0.003 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| coaching change | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 3/3 | -0.028 |
| suspension | 4 | 4 | 1.9 | 1/4 | +0.014 |
| key starter returning | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 0/1 | +0.006 |
Shadow scorecard — what we declined
Rejected claims are kept at zero weight and graded as if applied. If a rejection reason keeps "helping", the rule is too strict; if "other" keeps hurting, it stays out. This is how the layer learns.
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key player out | 265 | 241 | 116/241 | +0.207 |
| retired: now on the injury report | key player out | 166 | 165 | 83/165 | +0.145 |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key player back | 113 | 104 | 61/104 | -0.118 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 64 | 61 | 29/61 | +0.016 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | QB change | 59 | 48 | 18/48 | +0.769 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 29 | 27 | 16/27 | -0.015 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | key player out | 27 | 25 | 15/25 | -0.004 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | QB change | 20 | 12 | 12/12 | -0.589 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 19 | 18 | 9/18 | +0.005 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out | key player out | 17 | 14 | 8/14 | -0.002 |
| soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) | key player back | 17 | 15 | 11/15 | -0.038 |
| already on the injury report | key player out | 16 | 16 | 7/16 | +0.100 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 16 | 13 | 7/13 | +0.017 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation | motivation | 15 | 14 | 6/14 | +0.010 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | suspension | 13 | 11 | 4/11 | +0.055 |
| confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out | key player out | 11 | 11 | 6/11 | -0.012 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 11 | 9 | 4/9 | +0.020 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | other | 10 | 9 | 7/9 | -0.018 |
| confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out | key player out | 9 | 7 | 1/7 | +0.037 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for other | other | 9 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.002 |
| about an earlier game, not this one | key player out | 8 | 5 | 4/5 | -0.032 |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching change | 8 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.027 |
| QB out: the model already uses the named starter | key player out | 6 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.011 |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out | key player out | 6 | 6 | 2/6 | +0.006 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out | key player out | 5 | 5 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | motivation | 5 | 5 | 1/5 | +0.039 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | travel | 5 | 5 | 3/5 | -0.010 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | turmoil | 5 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 5 | 5 | 5/5 | -0.088 |
| retired: schedule feed now names this QB | QB change | 5 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.007 |
| QB is already the named starter | QB change | 4 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.068 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 4 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 4 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.017 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | other | 4 | 4 | 1/4 | +0.004 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 3 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation | motivation | 3 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 3 | 3 | 3/3 | -0.016 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for QB change | QB change | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | -0.000 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.005 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for travel | travel | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.013 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | motivation | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.067 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.034 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.011 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.002 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for QB change | QB change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.015 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for motivation | motivation | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.009 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for travel | travel | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.005 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | suspension | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.003 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.001 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 0 | – | – |
Season: stats model 76–42, model + analyst 79–39; 98 games moved, 5 picks flipped (4 won).
JAX @ BAL Thu 8:15 PM
est. model 31% home → analyst 31% (+0.2 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | JAX | DaVon Hamilton | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | JAX | Eric Murray | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for Thursday night | BAL | Jaylinn Hawkins | 0.90 | -1.8 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | BAL | Tyler Loop | 0.90 | -1.8 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: schedule feed now names this QB Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano named starter for Week 9 after Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (turf toe) placed on IR | BAL | Joe Fagnano | 0.99 | -5.9 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Lamar Jackson ruled out with thumb injury; Tyler Huntley also injured; third-string undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano is emergency QB | BAL | Joe Fagnano | 0.99 | -5.9 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Tyler Huntley (toe) and Lamar Jackson (right thumb) ruled out; Joe Fagnano (ankle) limited/uncertain; Kedon Slovis added from Packers practice squad as potential starter | BAL | 0.95 | -5.7 | after the final | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tyler Huntley (named starter) suffered turf toe injury in Week 8; status uncertain for Thursday. Ravens may need third-string QB. | BAL | 0.95 | -5.7 | after the final | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: QB out: the model already uses the named starter Ruled out with right thumb injury, undergoing surgery, placed on injured reserve for at least 4 games | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.99 | -2.0 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Ruled out with toe injury for Thursday game vs Jaguars | BAL | Tyler Huntley | 0.95 | -1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Exited game with toe injury, status unclear for upcoming games | BAL | Tyler Huntley | 0.85 | -1.7 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DT carted off field during Week 8 game vs Colts | JAX | DaVon Hamilton | 0.85 | +1.7 | after the final |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Expected to return Sunday vs. Bills after missing 3 games with high ankle sprain; full participant in Wednesday practice | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.85 | +1.3 | after the final |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CIN @ ATL Sun 9:30 AM
est. model 31% home → analyst 29% (-1.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 52.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report DE placed on IR (ruled out for Week 9) | ATL | Samson Ebukam | 0.95 | -1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve after wrist surgery Monday | CIN | Cashius Howell | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR ruled out for Week 9 vs Bengals | ATL | Zachariah Branch | 0.95 | -1.9 | after the final |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') EDGE reinstated after eight-game suspension, returns to lineup | ATL | James Pearce Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out EDGE reinstated after eight-game suspension, available for Week 9 | ATL | James Pearce Jr. | 0.95 | +1.4 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Injury watch reported; status unclear but flagged as potential depth concern | CIN | Cashius Howell | 0.30 | +0.6 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Injury watch reported; status unclear but flagged as potential depth concern | CIN | DJ Turner | 0.30 | +0.6 | after the final |
DEN @ CAR Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 35% home → analyst 36% (+1.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 61.0°F, wind 3.0 mph, Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coaching change Panthers hired DeAngelo Hall to coach cornerbacks this week after dismissing defensive coaches | CAR | 0.75 | +1.5 | after the final | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: QB out: the model already uses the named starter RB placed on injured reserve after knee injury in practice | DEN | RJ Harvey | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching change Panthers hired DeAngelo Hall as cornerbacks coach this week after dismissing defensive coaches last week | CAR | 0.60 | +1.2 | after the final | |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) WR designated to return from IR, full participant in Wednesday practice, could play Sunday | DEN | Pat Bryant | 0.70 | -1.1 | after the final |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out OL designated for return from IR, will practice this week | CAR | Brady Christensen | 0.70 | +1.1 | after the final |
DAL @ IND Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 43% home → analyst 43% (+0.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 51.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Colts benched Daniel Jones, inserted Anthony Richardson in Week 8 vs Jaguars | IND | Anthony Richardson | 0.90 | -5.4 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jones benched during 42-7 loss to Jaguars; coach Steichen said 'we'll evaluate everything' regarding his future role | IND | Daniel Jones | 0.75 | -4.5 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: about an earlier game, not this one DB ruled out for Week 8 vs Colts | DAL | Caleb Downs | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Concussion protocol after Sunday's loss; status unclear for Week 9 | DAL | P.J. Locke | 0.65 | +1.3 | after the final |
5 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
NYJ @ KC Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 78% home → analyst 78% (-0.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 56.0°F, wind 3.0 mph, Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Missed fifth straight game with quad injury in Week 8 loss to Raiders | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.85 | +1.7 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Entered concussion protocol on Nov 4; Week 9 availability in doubt | NYJ | Garrett Wilson | 0.75 | +1.5 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rookie DT suffered neck injury in Week 8 game vs Broncos, status unclear for Week 9 | KC | Peter Woods | 0.65 | -1.3 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out Rookie cornerback day-to-day with shoulder injury throughout season | KC | Mansoor Delane | 0.40 | -0.8 | after the final |
6 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
DET @ MIA Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 25% home → analyst 30% (+4.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 82.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Slight Chance Rain Showers
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker placed on injured reserve with season-ending hamstring injury from Sunday's game. | DET | Jimmy Rolder | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out with concussion from friendly-fire collision vs Vikings | DET | Brian Branch | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out with concussion from friendly-fire collision vs Vikings | DET | DJ Wonnum | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Center suffered ankle injury in Week 8 game vs Vikings; status for Week 9 unclear | DET | Cade Mays | 0.85 | +1.7 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') All-Pro LB carted off on backboard with serious injury vs Vikings (Nov 1); status for Miami game unclear but injury severity suggests likely out | DET | Jack Campbell | 0.75 | +1.5 | after the final |
CLE @ NO Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 66% home → analyst 65% (-1.7 pts)
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coaching change Saints fired offensive run game coordinator T.J. Paganetti during bye week | NO | 0.85 | -1.7 | after the final | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Watson placed in concussion protocol Monday after helmet-to-helmet hit Sunday; Shedeur Sanders preparing to start | CLE | Deshaun Watson | 0.95 | +5.7 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Deshaun Watson placed in concussion protocol after helmet-to-helmet hit Monday; Sanders preparing to start | CLE | Shedeur Sanders | 0.95 | +5.7 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') In concussion protocol after helmet-to-helmet hit Sunday; status unclear for Sunday but Shedeur Sanders preparing to start | CLE | Deshaun Watson | 0.75 | +1.5 | after the final |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching change Saints fired offensive run game coordinator T.J. Paganetti during bye week | NO | 0.60 | -1.2 | after the final | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Injured in Week 8 vs Steelers (1st half); status for Saints game unclear but recent injury in last 7 days | CLE | Tyson Campbell | 0.60 | +1.2 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Injured in Week 8 vs Steelers (1st half); status for Saints game unclear but recent injury in last 7 days | CLE | Maliek Collins | 0.60 | +1.2 | after the final |
NYG @ PHI Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 37% home → analyst 36% (-1.1 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 58.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts out for season with blood clots; Tanner McKee taking over as starting QB | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.99 | -5.9 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts out for season with blood clots; Tanner McKee taking over as starting QB | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.99 | -5.9 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Joe Milton starting Week 9 vs Giants after Sirianni said Monday no QB change would be made; Milton making first career start | PHI | Joe Milton III | 0.95 | -5.7 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts out for season with blood clots; McKee taking over as starting QB | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.95 | -5.7 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts out for season with blood clots; McKee taking over as starting QB | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.95 | -5.7 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts out for season with blood clots; Tanner McKee starting | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.95 | -5.7 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts out for season with blood clots; Tanner McKee starting | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.95 | -5.7 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts out for season with blood clots; Tanner McKee taking over as starting QB | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.95 | -5.7 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: QB is already the named starter Blood clots reported; potential season-ending injury to named starter | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.75 | -4.5 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: about an earlier game, not this one Top wide receiver ruled out for Week 8 vs Commanders | PHI | DeVonta Smith | 0.99 | -2.0 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back began practice off to the side with trainer after bye; status uncertain for Week 9 | NYG | Cam Skattebo | 0.65 | +1.3 | after the final |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
LA @ WAS Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 33% home → analyst 29% (-4.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 59.0°F, wind 12.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back placed on IR with foot injury | WAS | Jeremy McNichols | 0.99 | -2.0 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive lineman placed on IR | WAS | Daron Payne | 0.99 | -2.0 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive tackle placed on IR after MCL surgery, expected to miss rest of season | WAS | Javon Kinlaw | 0.99 | -2.0 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback placed on season-ending IR after shoulder surgery | LA | Jaylen Watson | 0.99 | +2.0 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Foot injury; Commanders may need to add running back help this week | WAS | Jeremy McNichols | 0.65 | -1.3 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Throwing arm soreness with ice on right elbow after Week 8; limited to 25 passes | LA | Matthew Stafford | 0.65 | +1.3 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Opening 21-day practice window; status for Week 9 vs Commanders unclear, decision to come later in week | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.65 | +1.3 | after the final |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Will practice this week; Rams to decide on Week 9 status later in the week | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.60 | -0.9 | after the final |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
HOU @ LAC Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 31% home → analyst 30% (-1.1 pts)
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB ruled out for this week; coach DeMeco Ryans called him 'week-to-week' with groin injury | HOU | David Montgomery | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on Injured Reserve after hamstring setback | LAC | Derwin James | 0.95 | -1.9 | after the final |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out LB: Chargers opened 21-day practice window; eligible to return this week | LAC | Denzel Perryman | 0.75 | +1.1 | after the final |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out TE: Chargers opened 21-day practice window; expected to return to practice this week | LAC | David Njoku | 0.70 | +1.1 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out TE expected to return to practice this week; currently sidelined but not yet cleared for game action | LAC | David Njoku | 0.30 | -0.6 | after the final |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
LV @ SF Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 83% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 72.0°F, wind 3.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
No claims shown: nothing concrete in the news beyond what the model already counts.
GB @ NE Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 63% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 56.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Coach LaFleur stated 'intention' for Parsons to practice this week, indicating he remains unavailable for Week 9 game | GB | Micah Parsons | 0.70 | +1.4 | after the final |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Multiple abuse allegations reported; Jacobs states he is not worried about league suspension but situation remains unresolved | GB | Josh Jacobs | 0.65 | +1.3 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Additional allegations against RB released; credibility/legal issues may affect availability or team decision | GB | Josh Jacobs | 0.60 | +1.2 | after the final |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Green Bay's Mike linebacker could be back for Week 9 matchup against New England Patriots | GB | Zaire Franklin | 0.70 | -1.1 | after the final |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR expected to return to practice Wednesday, 21-day IR window opening | NE | Mack Hollins | 0.65 | +1.0 | after the final |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Coach LaFleur stated intention for Parsons to practice this week (Week 9) | GB | Micah Parsons | 0.65 | -1.0 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out Did not practice Wednesday; status unclear for Sunday | NE | A.J. Brown | 0.40 | -0.8 | after the final |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
ARI @ SEA Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 72% home → analyst 76% (+4.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 55.0°F, wind 9.0 mph, Slight Chance Light Rain
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on IR | ARI | Kendrick Bourne | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB placed on IR with high-ankle sprain; out minimum 4 weeks | ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cardinals LT Jayden Williams ruled out | ARI | Jayden Williams | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett at QB in Week 8 game vs Cowboys | ARI | Gardner Minshew | 0.90 | +5.4 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jacoby Brissett traded to Ravens; Gardner Minshew remains starter but backup depth affected | ARI | 0.85 | +5.1 | after the final | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rookie RB injured ankle in Week 8 vs Cowboys (same ankle from preseason); status unclear for Week 9 | ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 0.65 | +1.3 | after the final |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
TB @ CHI Sun 8:20 PM
est. model 69% home → analyst 65% (-3.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 49.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Clear
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report DL placed on injured reserve with knee injury from Week 8 | CHI | Kentavius Street | 0.95 | -1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report OT underwent knee surgery, out for rest of season | CHI | Braxton Jones | 0.95 | -1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) RB ruled out, will miss fourth consecutive game | CHI | Kyle Monangai | 0.95 | -1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Grade 2 MCL sprain, set to miss time | TB | YaYa Diaby | 0.85 | +1.7 | after the final |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Defensive tackle acquired via trade from Titans on Thursday; played in Week 8 vs Seahawks with immediate impact (6 tackles, 1 sack, game ball) | CHI | Jeffery Simmons | 0.95 | +1.4 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB believed to have MCL sprain suffered in Week 8 win vs. Falcons | TB | Yaya Diaby | 0.65 | +1.3 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: about an earlier game, not this one Inactive for Week 8 game vs Seahawks | CHI | Malik Muhammad II | 0.60 | -1.2 | after the final |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
BUF @ MIN Mon 8:15 PM
est. model 43% home → analyst 42% (-0.4 pts)
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kyler Murray has sore hamstring from Week 8 game; Vikings plan to start him if healthy but status uncertain | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.65 | -3.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety released by Bills after one-game suspension for spitting incident; no longer on roster | BUF | C.J. Gardner-Johnson | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Developed hamstring tightness late in Sunday's loss to Lions; status unclear for Monday night game | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.65 | -1.3 | after the final |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
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