Analyst · Week 7
The stats model is the foundation. This layer reads the week's news and forecasts, reports only what the model is not already counting, and moves the number by a capped amount — every claim linked to its source, every claim graded after the final.
Is the news layer helping?
Since the layer went live, over 305 graded claims:
- The adjusted forecast has been worse than the stats model alone — net change in squared error (Brier) of +0.252, where negative is better.
- 146 of 305 claims pushed the number toward the actual result.
- It changed the final pick in 5 games, and those flips went 4–1.
This is the whole test. News can't be backtested the way the base model was (2010–25), so the layer earns its place only forward, and only if it lowers the error over many games — not on any one result. Its job is to move the number toward the truth, not to rescue a pick: when it cut a heavy home pick by 10 points and the team still lost, the move was correct (it lowered the error) even though the pick was wrong — the base model had simply started too far above the market. Picks where we disagree with the market's final price are our weaker spot (about 44% in the backtest, versus 68% when we agree) — they're flagged “we differ” on the picks table so you can watch them.
What we do with the news, step by step
This page is the news layer's public notebook. In plain terms:
- Before kickoff, every run pulls the feeds and attaches new items to the games they concern. Items published after a game has started are never read: in-game news is not a prediction input.
- The reader turns new items into claims: a type (QB change, key starter out, resting starters…), a team, a player, a direction, and a confidence.
- The filters decide, in the same run, whether a claim is applied or declined. Declined if it is below the confidence floor for its type, if the model already counts it (the player is on the injury report, the QB is already the named starter), or if it is the kind of story that has no place (offseason hires, turf, "limited in practice").
- Applied claims move the probability right then, by a fixed number of points for the type, scaled by confidence, capped. That adjusted number is the pick. "Model 74% → analyst 76%" on a game below means exactly that.
- After the final, every claim is graded, applied or declined: did it point the right way, and did it lower the error? Declined claims are graded as if they had been applied, so we learn whether the filter was right to say no.
- Once a month, with enough graded cases, the rules change for future weeks: a type that keeps hurting loses weight; a rejection reason that keeps "would have helped" gets loosened. Past picks are never touched. Every rule change is dated in the changelog.
A claim only affects the game it is attached to. It does not carry into next week's model: a starter who misses Week 2 is caught by the injury report by then, and the model counts him there.
How it works
Sources: public news feeds; the National Weather Service forecast at kickoff for outdoor stadiums; the nflverse injury report and named starters are what the model already counts. The reader (one language-model call per game, only when there is new news) returns typed claims about things not already counted. A fixed table turns each claim into points, scaled by the reader's confidence, capped per type and ±10 in total. Weather is logged at zero weight until a season of grading says otherwise.
| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
Scorecard by claim type
After each final: did the move go the right way, and did it lower the squared error (Brier)? Negative Brier change is good. Types that don't earn their weight get zeroed at season's end.
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 205 | 180 | 1.8 | 84/180 | +0.303 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 56 | 52 | 0.4 | 24/52 | +0.043 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 30 | 23 | 1.1 | 13/23 | +0.017 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 21 | 21 | 5.5 | 12/21 | -0.106 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 5/8 | +0.006 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 8 | 8 | 0.7 | 4/8 | -0.003 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| coaching change | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 3/3 | -0.028 |
| suspension | 4 | 4 | 1.9 | 1/4 | +0.014 |
| key starter returning | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 0/1 | +0.006 |
Shadow scorecard — what we declined
Rejected claims are kept at zero weight and graded as if applied. If a rejection reason keeps "helping", the rule is too strict; if "other" keeps hurting, it stays out. This is how the layer learns.
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key player out | 265 | 241 | 116/241 | +0.207 |
| retired: now on the injury report | key player out | 166 | 165 | 83/165 | +0.145 |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key player back | 113 | 104 | 61/104 | -0.118 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 64 | 61 | 29/61 | +0.016 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | QB change | 59 | 48 | 18/48 | +0.769 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 29 | 27 | 16/27 | -0.015 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | key player out | 27 | 25 | 15/25 | -0.004 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | QB change | 20 | 12 | 12/12 | -0.589 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 19 | 18 | 9/18 | +0.005 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out | key player out | 17 | 14 | 8/14 | -0.002 |
| soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) | key player back | 17 | 15 | 11/15 | -0.038 |
| already on the injury report | key player out | 16 | 16 | 7/16 | +0.100 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 16 | 13 | 7/13 | +0.017 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation | motivation | 15 | 14 | 6/14 | +0.010 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | suspension | 13 | 11 | 4/11 | +0.055 |
| confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out | key player out | 11 | 11 | 6/11 | -0.012 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 11 | 9 | 4/9 | +0.020 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | other | 10 | 9 | 7/9 | -0.018 |
| confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out | key player out | 9 | 7 | 1/7 | +0.037 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for other | other | 9 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.002 |
| about an earlier game, not this one | key player out | 8 | 5 | 4/5 | -0.032 |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching change | 8 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.027 |
| QB out: the model already uses the named starter | key player out | 6 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.011 |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out | key player out | 6 | 6 | 2/6 | +0.006 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out | key player out | 5 | 5 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | motivation | 5 | 5 | 1/5 | +0.039 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | travel | 5 | 5 | 3/5 | -0.010 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | turmoil | 5 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 5 | 5 | 5/5 | -0.088 |
| retired: schedule feed now names this QB | QB change | 5 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.007 |
| QB is already the named starter | QB change | 4 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.068 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 4 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 4 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.017 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | other | 4 | 4 | 1/4 | +0.004 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 3 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation | motivation | 3 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 3 | 3 | 3/3 | -0.016 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for QB change | QB change | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | -0.000 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.005 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for travel | travel | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.013 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | motivation | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.067 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.034 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.011 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.002 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for QB change | QB change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.015 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for motivation | motivation | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.009 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for travel | travel | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.005 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | suspension | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.003 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.001 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 0 | – | – |
Season: stats model 76–42, model + analyst 79–39; 98 games moved, 5 picks flipped (4 won).
NE @ CHI Thu 8:15 PM
est. model 56% home → analyst 56% (-0.2 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 60.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Clear
· final 24–30
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| suspension Defensive end suspended for two games | CHI | Montez Sweat | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR ruled out; DeMario Douglas stepping up in his absence | NE | Romeo Doubs | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Significant offensive contributor ruled out for Week 7 vs Patriots | CHI | Kyle Monangai | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Starting guard ruled out for Week 7 vs Bears | NE | Ben Brown | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Starting guard ruled out for Week 7 vs Bears | NE | Alijah Vera-Tucker | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Thursday night game vs Bears | NE | Carlton Davis | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Patriots don't expect starting left guard to play Thursday vs Bears | NE | Alijah Vera-Tucker | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Week-to-week with hip flexor injury; left Sunday's game in second half | CHI | Jonah Jackson | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: about an earlier game, not this one Offensive lineman ruled out in Week 6 game vs Jets | NE | Ben Brown | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left tackle exited Patriots game against Raiders with knee injury | NE | Will Campbell | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Activated off injured reserve Saturday; returns after missing 4 games with high ankle sprain | NE | A.J. Brown | 0.95 | -1.4 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Defensive back returned to lineup in Week 6 win vs Falcons | CHI | Kyler Gordon | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR left game vs Jets on 10/18 with shoulder injury; status for CHI game unclear | NE | Romeo Doubs | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out Cornerback listed as questionable with illness; practice status does not meet 'ruled out' threshold | NE | Christian Gonzalez | 0.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
PIT @ NO Sun 9:30 AM
est. model 38% home → analyst 43% (+4.9 pts)
· final 16–10
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive lineman placed on injured reserve | PIT | Sebastian Joseph-Day | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve due to finger injury | PIT | Roman Wilson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Paris protests force cancellation of Steelers fan events; security increased for game at Stade de France | PIT | 0.75 | +0.8 | hurt +0.006 | |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Saints game in Paris amid ongoing local unrest and riots; potential disruption to team preparation and focus | NO | 0.70 | -0.7 | helped -0.005 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out (calf) for Paris game | PIT | Ben Skowronek | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report CB ruled out (hamstring) for Paris game | PIT | Brandin Echols | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change Head coach Mike McCarthy suffered sprained ankle during Week 6 game vs Buccaneers, missed halftime; status for Saints game unclear | PIT | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.010 | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Safety activated to roster after being out; team plans to ease him back into lineup | PIT | DeShon Elliott | 0.70 | -1.1 | helped -0.008 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Game played in Paris; local unrest/protests reported but subsided as of Oct 18 | PIT | 0.70 | +0.7 | hurt +0.005 | |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Game moved to Paris, France; potential travel/logistics impact on Steelers preparation and performance | PIT | 0.70 | +0.7 | hurt +0.005 | |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for travel QB expressed unhappiness with Steelers' travel timing to Paris; arrived Friday morning instead of earlier in week | PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 0.65 | +0.7 | hurt +0.005 |
10 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
SF @ ATL Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 40% home → analyst 38% (-1.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 15.0 mph, Sunny
· final 20–29
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie LB ruled out after stretcher injury vs Bears; alert with movement in extremities | ATL | Kendal Daniels | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Falcons signed Andy Dalton and released Cooper Rush; Dalton is backup QB competition for Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | Andy Dalton | 0.60 | -3.6 | hurt +0.044 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Wide receiver ruled out for Week 7 vs Falcons | SF | Mike Evans | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Defensive end ruled out for Week 7 vs Falcons | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Ruled out for Monday Night Football | SF | Christian Kirk | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Ruled out for Monday Night Football vs. Commanders | SF | Christian Kirk | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR suffered Achilles injury in Monday game vs Commanders; status uncertain for Sunday | SF | Mike Evans | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR activated from IR on Friday, October 24 | SF | Christian Kirk | 0.95 | -1.4 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Defensive end missed Wednesday and Thursday practices; status uncertain for Sunday | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB missed Thursday practice, uncertain for Week 7 | ATL | Brian Robinson Jr. | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Cornerback designated for return from injured reserve | ATL | A.J. Terrell | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.015 |
CIN @ BAL Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 43% home → analyst 39% (-4.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 60.0°F, wind 2.0 mph, Sunny
· final 35–13
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Lamar Jackson ruled out for Week 7 vs. Bengals; Tyler Huntley confirmed starter | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.99 | -5.9 | helped -0.047 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR after bye week | CIN | Tanner Hudson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Lamar Jackson ruled out for Week 6 vs. Browns; Tyler Huntley starting | BAL | Tyler Huntley | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.045 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Lamar Jackson ruled out for Week 6 vs. Browns; Tyler Huntley to start | BAL | Tyler Huntley | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.045 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Lamar Jackson ruled out for Week 6 vs. Browns; Tyler Huntley to start | BAL | Tyler Huntley | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.045 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Lamar Jackson missed Week 6 with ankle injury; head coach Jesse Minter offered no clarity on Week 7 return, only said he could 'potentially' return to practice this week | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.75 | -4.5 | helped -0.036 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report OLB placed on injured reserve with pectoral injury for season | BAL | Tavius Robinson | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: QB out: the model already uses the named starter Ruled out for Week 6 vs. Browns with ankle injury; Tyler Huntley starting instead | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: about an earlier game, not this one Ruled out for Week 6 vs. Browns | BAL | Cam Jurgens | 0.90 | -1.8 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Center listed as full participant in practice Wednesday after being traded while in concussion protocol; expected to make debut vs. Bengals | BAL | Cam Jurgens | 0.75 | +1.1 | hurt +0.010 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
TB @ CAR Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 72% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 63.0°F, wind 12.0 mph, Sunny
· final 43–13
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Mayfield missed third straight game Week 6; expected to practice Wednesday but status unclear for Week 7 vs Panthers | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.65 | +3.9 | hurt +0.055 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR Emeka Egbuka ruled out with concussion | TB | Emeka Egbuka | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR Emeka Egbuka listed with concussion after first practice of Week 7. | TB | Emeka Egbuka | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.024 |
NYG @ HOU Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 76% home → analyst 77% (+0.6 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 76.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 27–21
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Giants working through QB decision between Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy after benching Winston mid-game Sunday; McCarthy nearly led comeback | NYG | 0.75 | +4.5 | hurt +0.066 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') J.J. McCarthy replaced Jameis Winston in Giants' Week 6 game vs Saints (entered in 4th quarter with Saints up 34-10) | NYG | J.J. McCarthy | 0.60 | +3.6 | hurt +0.053 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Ruled out for remainder of 2026 season with right shoulder injury suffered in Week 6 | NYG | Tremaine Edmunds | 1.00 | +2.0 | hurt +0.030 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report DB out for Sunday | HOU | Jalen Pitre | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report RB out for Sunday | HOU | David Montgomery | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Starting LB ruled out for Week 7, out for season with shoulder injury | NYG | Tremaine Edmunds | 0.99 | +2.0 | hurt +0.030 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Tight end ruled out for Week 7 | NYG | Theo Johnson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.029 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out for Week 7; in concussion protocol | NYG | Jevon Holland | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.029 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Top three offensive tackles missing practice Wednesday; Giants made emergency roster move for depth at tackle | NYG | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.023 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left tackle benched in Week 6 after clearing concussion protocol; unclear if available for Week 7 | NYG | Andrew Thomas | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR Tank Dell planned to return from 2024 knee injury in Week 7 vs Giants after missing all of 2025 season | HOU | Tank Dell | 0.85 | +1.3 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out OT returned to practice Thursday after missing Wednesday | HOU | Trent Brown | 0.75 | +1.1 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out TE returned to practice Thursday after missing Wednesday | HOU | Dalton Schultz | 0.75 | +1.1 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out LB returned to practice Thursday after missing Wednesday | HOU | Azeez Al-Shaair | 0.75 | +1.1 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Paulson Adebo returned to practice, opening window for return from IR | NYG | Paulson Adebo | 0.70 | -1.1 | helped -0.016 |
8 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
IND @ MIN Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 80% home → analyst 84% (+3.9 pts)
· final 10–16
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coaching change General Manager Chris Ballard fired on Oct 19 after Week 6 loss to Titans | IND | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Player ruled out for Sunday vs Vikings | IND | Anthony Gould | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Cornerback ruled out for Sunday vs Vikings | IND | Sauce Gardner | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB released by Vikings on Friday | MIN | Deejay Dallas | 0.80 | -1.6 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback week-to-week with mild calf strain; departed Sunday game | IND | Sauce Gardner | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end did not practice Wednesday with groin injury; status unclear for Sunday | IND | Tyler Warren | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out RB designated to return to practice; getting healthier on offense | MIN | Jordan Mason | 0.70 | +1.1 | helped -0.004 |
4 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
MIA @ NYJ Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 56% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 61.0°F, wind 2.0 mph, Sunny
· final 28–25
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Starting WR set to return to lineup after missing since Week 2 with finger injury | NYJ | Adonai Mitchell | 0.95 | +1.4 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Did not play against Patriots in Week 6 due to quad injury sustained in Week 3 | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.015 |
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Frank Reich replaced Tanner Engstrand as offensive coordinator after Week 6 | NYJ | 0.70 | +1.4 | hurt +0.016 | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Safety activated off injured reserve to active roster | MIA | Kyle Louis | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Rookie pass catcher could return this weekend; head coach Jeff Hafley is optimistic | MIA | Caleb Douglas | 0.60 | -0.9 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Rookie pass catcher could return this weekend but status uncertain; head coach optimistic but not confirmed | MIA | Caleb Douglas | 0.30 | +0.6 | hurt +0.007 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CLE @ TEN Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 40% home → analyst 39% (-1.1 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 69.0°F, wind 0.0 mph, Sunny
· final 27–24
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB listed as questionable with hand injury Friday; inactives report on game day (Oct 25) indicates status determination | CLE | Denzel Ward | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Titans lose two offensive players on game day per inactives report | TEN | 0.55 | -1.1 | helped -0.009 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Defensive tackle released by Titans on Oct 20 after incident at team facility | TEN | Jordan Elliott | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out RB activated from IR | CLE | Dylan Sampson | 0.95 | -1.4 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver listed with injury concern on Thursday injury report | CLE | Calvin Ridley | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Linebacker listed with injury concern on Thursday injury report | CLE | Quincy Williams | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out CB listed as questionable with hand injury; practice status indicates game-time decision but not ruled out | CLE | Denzel Ward | 0.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 |
4 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
DEN @ ARI Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 31% home → analyst 33% (+2.1 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 81.0°F, wind 0.0 mph, Sunny
· final 30–16
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback ruled out for Week 7 vs. Cardinals; will miss third straight game due to ankle injury | DEN | Pat Surtain II | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report RB ruled out for Week 7 vs. Broncos | ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Cardinals ruled out RB Jeremiyah Love for Week 6 vs Broncos | ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Cardinals ruled out RB Jeremiyah Love for Week 6 vs Rams | ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Star cornerback unlikely to play today vs. Cardinals; ankle injury from 49ers game | DEN | Pat Surtain II | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.011 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') OLB removed from Commissioner's Exempt List; still facing felony charge and misdemeanors; potential suspension remains | DEN | Jonathon Cooper | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Broncos OLB Jonathon Cooper removed from Commissioner's Exempt List, eligible to play vs Cardinals Week 7 | DEN | Jonathon Cooper | 0.90 | -1.4 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Linebacker reinstated from Commissioner Exempt list but still facing felony charge and three misdemeanors; suspension possible | DEN | Jonathon Cooper | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out RB designated to return from injured reserve, full practice participant Wednesday | DEN | Jonah Coleman | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out RB designated to return from IR, full practice participant Wednesday | DEN | Jonah Colman | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) CB full practice participant Wednesday, trending for return | DEN | Riley Moss | 0.80 | -1.2 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Returns to Broncos practice Wednesday after previous absence | DEN | Pat Surtain II | 0.70 | -1.1 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) RB ruled out for Week 6 (Rams game); status unclear for Week 7 vs. Broncos (status uncertain: counted at 35%) | ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 0.70 | -0.5 | helped -0.003 |
4 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
GB @ DET Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 68% home → analyst 66% (-1.7 pts)
· final 17–20
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Lions placed 3 players on IR during bye week: OL Ben Bartch, WR Tom Kennedy, LB Devin White | DET | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.011 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Linebacker ruled out for Week 7 with shin injury suffered in practice | GB | Zaire Franklin | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Defensive end will not practice this week; won't return until Week 8 at earliest | GB | Micah Parsons | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RG made healthy scratch for Lions game; Aaron Banks active in his place | GB | Kevin Zeitler | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Packers ruled out 4 players vs Dallas Cowboys (Week 6) | GB | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.010 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Packers ruled out 4 players for Week 6 vs Cowboys; defense very thin | GB | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.010 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Packers ruled out 4 players for Week 6 vs Cowboys; defense very thin | GB | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.010 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Lions placed OL Ben Bartch, WR Tom Kennedy, LB Devin White on injured reserve during bye week | DET | 0.80 | -1.6 | hurt +0.011 | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Center returning to lineup this week after recent return to practice | DET | Cade Mays | 0.90 | +1.4 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Safety returning to lineup this week after recent return to practice | DET | Brian Branch | 0.90 | +1.4 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out RB Josh Jacobs removed from commissioner exempt list, eligible to play Week 7 (not Week 6) | GB | Josh Jacobs | 0.90 | -1.4 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Removed from Commissioner Exempt list; eligibility to play restored but status for Week 6 unclear pending investigation resolution | GB | Josh Jacobs | 0.30 | -0.6 | hurt +0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out WR limited Thursday with ankle injury; practice status does not meet 'ruled out' threshold | GB | Christian Watson | 0.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
LA @ LV Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 36% home → analyst 41% (+4.4 pts)
· final 35–21
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback inactive for Week 7 vs Raiders | LA | Trent McDuffie | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with hamstring rupture; expected to miss 6-10 weeks | LA | Davante Adams | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Kicker suffered torn ACL in Week 6, out for season | LA | Blake Grupe | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | LA | Poona Ford | 0.90 | +1.8 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | LA | Kobie Turner | 0.90 | +1.8 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 7 | LA | Nate Landman | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DT projected to miss 4-6 weeks with injury | LA | Kobie Turner | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kicker left stadium on crutches with leg brace after Week 6; likely unavailable for Week 7 | LA | Blake Grupe | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Week 6 game vs Cardinals with non-contact injury | LA | Davante Adams | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting linebacker downgraded to questionable for Week 7 | LV | Quay Walker | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out Left practice early with calf injury; availability for Sunday unclear | LA | Puka Nacua | 0.40 | +0.8 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Not spotted during Thursday practice media viewing; status unclear | LV | Mike Washington Jr. | 0.30 | -0.6 | helped -0.004 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
KC @ SEA Sun 8:20 PM
est. model 58% home → analyst 59% (+0.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 53.0°F, wind 2.0 mph, Chance Light Rain
· final 3–20
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Left tackle placed on injured reserve, not eligible to return until Week 11 | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Tight end expected to miss time with shoulder injury | SEA | Elijah Arroyo | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.015 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Traveling separately to Seattle; injury-related travel arrangement | KC | L'Jarius Sneed | 0.70 | +0.7 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: QB out: the model already uses the named starter Inactive for game; will not be available unless both Darnold and Milroe get injured | SEA | Drew Lock | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback released by Seahawks, will not be on active roster for Sunday | SEA | Trevon Diggs | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Running back ruled out for Sunday's game vs. Chiefs | SEA | Zach Charbonnet | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: about an earlier game, not this one Offensive lineman ruled out for Week 6 vs. Chargers | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: about an earlier game, not this one Wide receiver ruled out for Week 6 vs. Chargers | KC | Rashee Rice | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Running back activated off PUP list and on track to play vs. Chiefs | SEA | Zach Charbonnet | 0.90 | +1.4 | helped -0.011 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for travel Traveling separately to Seattle | KC | L'Jarius Sneed | 0.60 | +0.6 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Right tackle ruled out with concussion after Week 6 game vs. Chargers; status for Week 7 unclear but concussion protocol ongoing (status uncertain: counted at 35%) | KC | Jaylon Moore | 0.70 | +0.5 | helped -0.004 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
DAL @ PHI Mon 8:15 PM
est. model 46% home → analyst 40% (-5.7 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 59.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Clear
· final 38–21
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Jalen Hurts will not play; Eagles starting backup QB instead | PHI | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.048 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jalen Hurts sidelined by blood clots in lungs; Tanner McKee starting | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.99 | -5.9 | helped -0.050 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jalen Hurts replaced; backup QB (likely Sean Mannion) will start | PHI | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.048 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Ruled out for the season with blood clots in his lungs | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 1.00 | -2.0 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game QB ruled out with blood clots in lungs; likely out for rest of year | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 7; three straight DNP designations | PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 7; did not practice all week | PHI | DeVonta Smith | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Out for season with blood clots in lungs | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Out for season with deep vein thrombosis and multiple pulmonary embolisms (blood clots in lungs) | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Out for season with blood clots in lungs (deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolisms) | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Out for season with deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolisms in lungs | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game QB out for season undergoing treatment for DVT and blood clots in lungs | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Ruled out for the season with blood clots in his lungs | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Ruled out for the season with blood clots in his lungs (Week 5) | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Linebacker strained Achilles in loss to Packers, will not play this week | DAL | Dee Winters | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out with rib injury suffered on opening kickoff return in Week 6 | DAL | KaVontae Turpin | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Achilles strain injury reported after Week 6 loss to Packers | DAL | Dee Winters | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Unlikely to play in Week 7 vs Eagles | DAL | KaVontae Turpin | 0.80 | +1.6 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Unable to practice Thursday due to knee issue; status unclear for Monday | PHI | Dallas Goedert | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.011 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
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