Analyst · Week 2
The stats model is the foundation. This layer reads the week's news and forecasts, reports only what the model is not already counting, and moves the number by a capped amount — every claim linked to its source, every claim graded after the final.
Is the news layer helping?
Since the layer went live, over 305 graded claims:
- The adjusted forecast has been worse than the stats model alone — net change in squared error (Brier) of +0.252, where negative is better.
- 146 of 305 claims pushed the number toward the actual result.
- It changed the final pick in 5 games, and those flips went 4–1.
This is the whole test. News can't be backtested the way the base model was (2010–25), so the layer earns its place only forward, and only if it lowers the error over many games — not on any one result. Its job is to move the number toward the truth, not to rescue a pick: when it cut a heavy home pick by 10 points and the team still lost, the move was correct (it lowered the error) even though the pick was wrong — the base model had simply started too far above the market. Picks where we disagree with the market's final price are our weaker spot (about 44% in the backtest, versus 68% when we agree) — they're flagged “we differ” on the picks table so you can watch them.
What we do with the news, step by step
This page is the news layer's public notebook. In plain terms:
- Before kickoff, every run pulls the feeds and attaches new items to the games they concern. Items published after a game has started are never read: in-game news is not a prediction input.
- The reader turns new items into claims: a type (QB change, key starter out, resting starters…), a team, a player, a direction, and a confidence.
- The filters decide, in the same run, whether a claim is applied or declined. Declined if it is below the confidence floor for its type, if the model already counts it (the player is on the injury report, the QB is already the named starter), or if it is the kind of story that has no place (offseason hires, turf, "limited in practice").
- Applied claims move the probability right then, by a fixed number of points for the type, scaled by confidence, capped. That adjusted number is the pick. "Model 74% → analyst 76%" on a game below means exactly that.
- After the final, every claim is graded, applied or declined: did it point the right way, and did it lower the error? Declined claims are graded as if they had been applied, so we learn whether the filter was right to say no.
- Once a month, with enough graded cases, the rules change for future weeks: a type that keeps hurting loses weight; a rejection reason that keeps "would have helped" gets loosened. Past picks are never touched. Every rule change is dated in the changelog.
A claim only affects the game it is attached to. It does not carry into next week's model: a starter who misses Week 2 is caught by the injury report by then, and the model counts him there.
How it works
Sources: public news feeds; the National Weather Service forecast at kickoff for outdoor stadiums; the nflverse injury report and named starters are what the model already counts. The reader (one language-model call per game, only when there is new news) returns typed claims about things not already counted. A fixed table turns each claim into points, scaled by the reader's confidence, capped per type and ±10 in total. Weather is logged at zero weight until a season of grading says otherwise.
| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
Scorecard by claim type
After each final: did the move go the right way, and did it lower the squared error (Brier)? Negative Brier change is good. Types that don't earn their weight get zeroed at season's end.
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 205 | 180 | 1.8 | 84/180 | +0.303 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 56 | 52 | 0.4 | 24/52 | +0.043 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 30 | 23 | 1.1 | 13/23 | +0.017 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 21 | 21 | 5.5 | 12/21 | -0.106 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 5/8 | +0.006 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 8 | 8 | 0.7 | 4/8 | -0.003 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| coaching change | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 3/3 | -0.028 |
| suspension | 4 | 4 | 1.9 | 1/4 | +0.014 |
| key starter returning | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 0/1 | +0.006 |
Shadow scorecard — what we declined
Rejected claims are kept at zero weight and graded as if applied. If a rejection reason keeps "helping", the rule is too strict; if "other" keeps hurting, it stays out. This is how the layer learns.
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key player out | 265 | 241 | 116/241 | +0.207 |
| retired: now on the injury report | key player out | 166 | 165 | 83/165 | +0.145 |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key player back | 113 | 104 | 61/104 | -0.118 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 64 | 61 | 29/61 | +0.016 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | QB change | 59 | 48 | 18/48 | +0.769 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 29 | 27 | 16/27 | -0.015 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | key player out | 27 | 25 | 15/25 | -0.004 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | QB change | 20 | 12 | 12/12 | -0.589 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 19 | 18 | 9/18 | +0.005 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out | key player out | 17 | 14 | 8/14 | -0.002 |
| soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) | key player back | 17 | 15 | 11/15 | -0.038 |
| already on the injury report | key player out | 16 | 16 | 7/16 | +0.100 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 16 | 13 | 7/13 | +0.017 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation | motivation | 15 | 14 | 6/14 | +0.010 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | suspension | 13 | 11 | 4/11 | +0.055 |
| confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out | key player out | 11 | 11 | 6/11 | -0.012 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 11 | 9 | 4/9 | +0.020 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | other | 10 | 9 | 7/9 | -0.018 |
| confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out | key player out | 9 | 7 | 1/7 | +0.037 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for other | other | 9 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.002 |
| about an earlier game, not this one | key player out | 8 | 5 | 4/5 | -0.032 |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching change | 8 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.027 |
| QB out: the model already uses the named starter | key player out | 6 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.011 |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out | key player out | 6 | 6 | 2/6 | +0.006 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out | key player out | 5 | 5 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | motivation | 5 | 5 | 1/5 | +0.039 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | travel | 5 | 5 | 3/5 | -0.010 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | turmoil | 5 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 5 | 5 | 5/5 | -0.088 |
| retired: schedule feed now names this QB | QB change | 5 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.007 |
| QB is already the named starter | QB change | 4 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.068 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 4 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 4 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.017 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | other | 4 | 4 | 1/4 | +0.004 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 3 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation | motivation | 3 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 3 | 3 | 3/3 | -0.016 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for QB change | QB change | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | -0.000 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.005 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for travel | travel | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.013 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | motivation | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.067 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.034 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.011 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.002 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for QB change | QB change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.015 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for motivation | motivation | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.009 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for travel | travel | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.005 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | suspension | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.003 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.001 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 0 | – | – |
Season: stats model 76–42, model + analyst 79–39; 98 games moved, 5 picks flipped (4 won).
DET @ BUF Thu 8:15 PM
est. model 66% home → analyst 68% (+1.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 31–41
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report DL ruled out after injuring hip in pregame | BUF | Ed Oliver | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB had back surgery, will miss significant time (estimated 12 weeks) | DET | Isiah Pacheco | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| coaching change Joe Brady hired as head coach after Sean McDermott fired | BUF | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.010 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LG Christian Mahogany out for Thursday vs. Bills | DET | Christian Mahogany | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report RT Blake Miller out for Thursday vs. Bills | DET | Blake Miller | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting LG carted off with knee injury in Week 1 vs Saints | DET | Christian Mahogany | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.011 |
| coaching change declined: offseason / logistics story, already counted Joe Brady hired as new head coach after Bills fired Sean McDermott following playoff loss | BUF | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.010 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CAR @ ATL Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 63% home → analyst 53% (-10.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 82.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 34–3
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Falcons have not named starting QB for Week 2; Tua Tagovailoa remains out of practice (Wed/Thu), Cooper Rush splitting reps with Michael Penix Jr., undrafted rookie Jack Strand not ruled out | ATL | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.071 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Cooper Rush to start for Falcons in Week 1; Tua Tagovailoa ruled out with oblique injury sustained in practice Thursday | ATL | Cooper Rush | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.071 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report DL Da'Shawn Hand placed on IR with season-ending quad injury from Week 1 | ATL | Da'Shawn Hand | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.024 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tua Tagovailoa sustained injury in practice before Week 1; Cooper Rush started Week 1 vs Steelers | ATL | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.071 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tua Tagovailoa injured in practice; Cooper Rush to start Week 1 vs. Steelers (reported Sep 13) | ATL | Cooper Rush | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.071 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Falcons have 'no updates' on Week 2 QB situation; starter Tua Tagovailoa's status unclear after Week 1 loss | ATL | 0.75 | -4.5 | helped -0.056 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Right guard in concussion protocol after Week 1, status uncertain for Week 2 | ATL | Chris Lindstrom | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Panthers defense allowed 59 points in Week 1 loss to Bears; defensive performance concerns heading into Week 2 | CAR | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.016 |
NO @ BAL Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 72% home → analyst 73% (+1.6 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 78.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Scattered Rain Showers
· final 24–17
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie WR placed on IR with fractured wrist, will miss at least a month | BAL | Ja'Kobi Lane | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR, will miss multiple weeks | NO | Audric Estime | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB not expected to play Sunday vs. Ravens | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.80 | +1.6 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Listed questionable but practice squad WR elevation signals likely absence from Baltimore game | NO | Chris Olave | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rookie WR suffered wrist injury in Week 1, will not return to game | BAL | Ja'Kobi Lane | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.020 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out All-Pro edge rusher will play through broken finger | BAL | Trey Hendrickson | 0.92 | +1.4 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ravens WR hamstring injury from Week 1; status day-to-day but not ruled out for Week 2 | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR exited Week 1 game with hamstring injury; status for Week 2 unclear but injury occurred in-week | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Running back making 2026 debut after practicing fully; Saints feel good about him playing | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.018 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
MIN @ CHI Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 54% home → analyst 61% (+7.6 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 15.0 mph, Showers And Thunderstorms
· final 9–3
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Kyler Murray ruled out with concussion in Week 1; Schefter reports not likely to play Week 2 vs Bears | MIN | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.063 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with thumb injury after Week 1 | MIN | Jordan Mason | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.021 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) wind 20 mph at kickoff (Showers And Thunderstorms) | CHI | 1.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: schedule feed now names this QB Kyler Murray ruled out for Week 2 with concussion protocol; Wentz to start | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.063 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: QB is already the named starter Murray ruled out with concussion in Week 1 vs Packers; Carson Wentz entered the game | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.063 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kyler Murray remained limited in Thursday practice; Wentz set to start if Murray does not clear concussion protocol | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.75 | +4.5 | hurt +0.050 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs. Bears; remains in concussion protocol after Week 1 injury | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Concussion suffered in Week 1; unlikely to play against Bears per Schefter | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.92 | +1.8 | hurt +0.020 |
CIN @ HOU Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 56% home → analyst 54% (-1.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 89.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 20–6
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with shoulder injury from Week 1 game vs Bills | HOU | Henry To'oTo'o | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 with hamstring injury suffered in Wednesday practice | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Hamstring injury sustained in Wednesday practice; limited participant status indicates game availability uncertain | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DE making season debut Sunday vs. Houston | CIN | Shemar Stewart | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.014 |
PIT @ NE Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 68% home → analyst 66% (-2.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 58.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Chance Light Rain
· final 3–20
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Wide receiver placed on injured reserve, expected to miss more than 4 games | NE | A.J. Brown | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out vs. Patriots with foot injury | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out with foot injury for Week 2 vs. Patriots | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out vs. Patriots with foot injury | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out with foot injury for Week 2 vs. Patriots | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out vs. Patriots with foot injury | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Cornerback ruled out for Week 2 vs. Patriots (back issue) | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') OT left Week 1 game vs. Falcons with injury | PIT | Troy Fautanu | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out CB exited Thursday practice early with medical staff; status unclear but practice participation limited due to conditioning | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.45 | +0.9 | helped -0.006 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
GB @ NYJ Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 37% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Periods Of Light Rain
· final 20–17
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out for Week 2 vs Packers | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR week-to-week with ankle sprain from Week 1; expected to miss time | NYJ | Omar Cooper | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Defensive lineman downgraded to non-participant due to knee injury and concussion | GB | Javon Hargrave | 0.80 | +1.6 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR week-to-week with ankle sprain from Week 1, first-round pick | NYJ | Omar Cooper Jr. | 0.80 | -1.6 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Removed from injury report, cleared to play | GB | Lukas Van Ness | 0.90 | -1.4 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Key defensive contributor added to injury report Thursday | NYJ | Will McDonald | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback suffered injury in first quarter of Week 1 vs. Titans; status unclear for Week 2 | NYJ | Jarvis Brownlee | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety suffered injury in first quarter of Week 1 vs. Titans; status unclear for Week 2 | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver suffered injury in first quarter of Week 1 vs. Titans; status unclear for Week 2 | NYJ | Omar Cooper | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.009 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CLE @ TB Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 70% home → analyst 74% (+3.7 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 86.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 23–19
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB placed on IR (Tuesday, Sept 15) | CLE | Dylan Sampson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.026 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') HC Todd Monken said Browns will 'evaluate everything' before facing Tampa Bay after Watson's poor Week 1 performance (34-10 loss); starter status uncertain | CLE | Deshaun Watson | 0.65 | +3.9 | hurt +0.054 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') TE will not return to Browns or NFL this year; league suspension | CLE | Dae'Quan Wright | 0.90 | +1.8 | hurt +0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback did not practice Thursday with ankle injury; already thin at cornerback position | CLE | Tyson Campbell | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR McMillan fully participated in Thursday practice after missing Week 1 with knee injury, on track to play | TB | Jalen McMillan | 0.85 | +1.3 | hurt +0.018 |
8 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
PHI @ TEN Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 27% home → analyst 29% (+1.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 92.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 24–20
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Guard placed on injured reserve after Week 1 | PHI | Landon Dickerson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Edge rusher ruled out for Eagles-Titans | PHI | Jonathan Greenard | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.011 |
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Robert Saleh hired as head coach, makes debut against former team Jets in Week 1 | TEN | 0.70 | +1.4 | hurt +0.008 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
JAX @ DEN Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 50% home → analyst 51% (+1.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 72.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 13–20
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back ruled out/inactive for Week 2 game vs Jacksonville | DEN | RJ Harvey | 0.99 | -2.0 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR Wednesday | JAX | B.J. Green | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.019 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Deshaun Watson started vs. Browns (first start in almost 2 years, not Trevor Lawrence) | JAX | Deshaun Watson | 0.90 | +5.4 | helped -0.051 |
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Todd Monken named head coach (debut vs. Browns Week 1) | JAX | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.017 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back unlikely to play vs. Jaguars; hamstring issue | DEN | R.J. Harvey | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver held out of practice Thursday with foot injury; status unclear for Sunday | DEN | Marvin Mims Jr. | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.013 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
LV @ LAC Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 66% home → analyst 64% (-1.9 pts)
· final 26–14
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on Injured Reserve with hamstring injury from Week 1; out at least one month | LAC | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Listed out vs. Raiders | LAC | Elijah Molden | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Doubtful to play Week 2; missed Week 1 after knee surgery (meniscus trim) | LV | Brock Bowers | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver exited Week 1 game after taking big hit over the middle; injury status unclear for Week 2 | LAC | Ladd McConkey | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.019 |
SEA @ ARI Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 32% home → analyst 31% (-0.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 97.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Partly Sunny
· final 31–7
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve after Week 1 | ARI | Kitan Crawford | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Darnold out with injury suffered in Week 1 vs. New England; Drew Lock is replacement starter | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.041 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 with glute injury; Drew Lock is named starter | SEA | Sam Darnold | 1.00 | +2.0 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out of Cardinals game with hip and knee injury; Christian Haynes starting at left tackle | SEA | Anthony Bradford | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Seahawks QB injured in Week 1; could miss 4-6 weeks | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Placed on injured reserve early in season | ARI | Myles Garrett | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out WR limited in practice Wednesday with back injury; status unclear for Sunday | SEA | Cooper Kupp | 0.40 | +0.8 | hurt +0.005 |
6 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
WAS @ DAL Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 57% home → analyst 56% (-0.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 94.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Partly Sunny
· final 20–37
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker placed on injured reserve with hamstring injury from Week 1 vs Eagles | WAS | Jordan Magee | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB out for the year after hip surgery | DAL | Malik Davis | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs Cowboys | WAS | Chig Okonkwo | 0.99 | +2.0 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs Cowboys | WAS | Frankie Luvu | 0.99 | +2.0 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety will miss 1-2 weeks with fractured forearm suffered in Week 1 | DAL | Malik Hooker | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Linebacker will miss 1-2 weeks with hamstring injury suffered in Week 1 | DAL | DeMarvion Overshown | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety fractured bone in forearm in Week 1; unclear return timeline | DAL | Malik Hooker | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out EDGE reinstated Monday after serving one-game suspension | WAS | Dorance Armstrong | 0.90 | -1.4 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB groin strain, status up in the air for Week 2 road game vs Cowboys | WAS | Frankie Luvu | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end held out of Wednesday practice; status for Week 2 vs Dallas unclear | WAS | Chig Okonkwo | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Returns to Dallas on Sunday after missing Week 1 | DAL | Dorance Armstrong | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.010 |
5 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
MIA @ SF Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 78% home → analyst 78% (-0.1 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 69.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 13–35
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report TE tore MCL in Week 1, out for season | SF | Jake Tonges | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety out for a few weeks with MCL sprain | MIA | Kyle Louis | 0.90 | +1.8 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') TE tore MCL in Week 1, final play of season | SF | Jake Tonges | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR placed on injured reserve, out at least 4 games (ankle injury) | SF | De'Zhaun Stribling | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR to miss at least a month with ankle injury suffered in Week 1 vs. Rams | SF | De'Zhaun Stribling | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kicker questionable with illness; team signing backup kicker to practice squad as insurance | SF | Eddy Piñeiro | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.006 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
IND @ KC Sun 8:20 PM
est. model 67% home → analyst 66% (-1.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 73.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 30–33
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Chiefs defensive starter ruled out for at least four games after Wednesday roster moves | KC | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.010 | |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR faces minimum three-game suspension after arrest; blood-alcohol level nearly three times legal limit | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Sunday night's matchup with the Chiefs | IND | Ashton Dulin | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LT ruled out vs. Broncos; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson to start at LT | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Linebacker injured; Chiefs looking for linebackers after injury | KC | Cooper McDonald | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Formally charged with two misdemeanors (DUI-related) from August arrest; BAC measured at 0.224% | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') CB to have MRI on shoulder after Week 1 injury; status unclear for Week 2 | KC | Mansoor Delane | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.008 |
5 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
NYG @ LA Mon 8:15 PM
est. model 70% home → analyst 68% (-2.0 pts)
· final 6–28
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB ruled out (inactive) for Week 2 vs. Rams | NYG | Deonte Banks | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR ruled out (inactive) with hip injury for Week 2 vs. Giants | LA | Puka Nacua | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback Paulson Adebo placed on IR | NYG | Paulson Adebo | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out with hamstring injury | LA | Kam Kinchels | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive end ruled out or unavailable for Rams-Giants game | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.008 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Rams played in Australia last week; short turnaround for Monday night game | LA | 0.75 | -0.8 | hurt +0.005 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rams DL undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery, headed to IR after Week 1 | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Sean McVay says TBD if Aaron Donald plays vs. Giants in Week 2; did not travel to Australia for Week 1 | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Returning from retirement; Sean McVay hopeful he will play Week 2 vs Giants | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.007 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
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