Analyst · Week 6
The stats model is the foundation. This layer reads the week's news and forecasts, reports only what the model is not already counting, and moves the number by a capped amount — every claim linked to its source, every claim graded after the final.
Is the news layer helping?
Since the layer went live, over 305 graded claims:
- The adjusted forecast has been worse than the stats model alone — net change in squared error (Brier) of +0.252, where negative is better.
- 146 of 305 claims pushed the number toward the actual result.
- It changed the final pick in 5 games, and those flips went 4–1.
This is the whole test. News can't be backtested the way the base model was (2010–25), so the layer earns its place only forward, and only if it lowers the error over many games — not on any one result. Its job is to move the number toward the truth, not to rescue a pick: when it cut a heavy home pick by 10 points and the team still lost, the move was correct (it lowered the error) even though the pick was wrong — the base model had simply started too far above the market. Picks where we disagree with the market's final price are our weaker spot (about 44% in the backtest, versus 68% when we agree) — they're flagged “we differ” on the picks table so you can watch them.
What we do with the news, step by step
This page is the news layer's public notebook. In plain terms:
- Before kickoff, every run pulls the feeds and attaches new items to the games they concern. Items published after a game has started are never read: in-game news is not a prediction input.
- The reader turns new items into claims: a type (QB change, key starter out, resting starters…), a team, a player, a direction, and a confidence.
- The filters decide, in the same run, whether a claim is applied or declined. Declined if it is below the confidence floor for its type, if the model already counts it (the player is on the injury report, the QB is already the named starter), or if it is the kind of story that has no place (offseason hires, turf, "limited in practice").
- Applied claims move the probability right then, by a fixed number of points for the type, scaled by confidence, capped. That adjusted number is the pick. "Model 74% → analyst 76%" on a game below means exactly that.
- After the final, every claim is graded, applied or declined: did it point the right way, and did it lower the error? Declined claims are graded as if they had been applied, so we learn whether the filter was right to say no.
- Once a month, with enough graded cases, the rules change for future weeks: a type that keeps hurting loses weight; a rejection reason that keeps "would have helped" gets loosened. Past picks are never touched. Every rule change is dated in the changelog.
A claim only affects the game it is attached to. It does not carry into next week's model: a starter who misses Week 2 is caught by the injury report by then, and the model counts him there.
How it works
Sources: public news feeds; the National Weather Service forecast at kickoff for outdoor stadiums; the nflverse injury report and named starters are what the model already counts. The reader (one language-model call per game, only when there is new news) returns typed claims about things not already counted. A fixed table turns each claim into points, scaled by the reader's confidence, capped per type and ±10 in total. Weather is logged at zero weight until a season of grading says otherwise.
| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
Scorecard by claim type
After each final: did the move go the right way, and did it lower the squared error (Brier)? Negative Brier change is good. Types that don't earn their weight get zeroed at season's end.
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 205 | 180 | 1.8 | 84/180 | +0.303 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 56 | 52 | 0.4 | 24/52 | +0.043 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 30 | 23 | 1.1 | 13/23 | +0.017 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 21 | 21 | 5.5 | 12/21 | -0.106 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 5/8 | +0.006 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 8 | 8 | 0.7 | 4/8 | -0.003 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| coaching change | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 3/3 | -0.028 |
| suspension | 4 | 4 | 1.9 | 1/4 | +0.014 |
| key starter returning | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 0/1 | +0.006 |
Shadow scorecard — what we declined
Rejected claims are kept at zero weight and graded as if applied. If a rejection reason keeps "helping", the rule is too strict; if "other" keeps hurting, it stays out. This is how the layer learns.
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key player out | 265 | 241 | 116/241 | +0.207 |
| retired: now on the injury report | key player out | 166 | 165 | 83/165 | +0.145 |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key player back | 113 | 104 | 61/104 | -0.118 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 64 | 61 | 29/61 | +0.016 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | QB change | 59 | 48 | 18/48 | +0.769 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 29 | 27 | 16/27 | -0.015 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | key player out | 27 | 25 | 15/25 | -0.004 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | QB change | 20 | 12 | 12/12 | -0.589 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 19 | 18 | 9/18 | +0.005 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out | key player out | 17 | 14 | 8/14 | -0.002 |
| soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) | key player back | 17 | 15 | 11/15 | -0.038 |
| already on the injury report | key player out | 16 | 16 | 7/16 | +0.100 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 16 | 13 | 7/13 | +0.017 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation | motivation | 15 | 14 | 6/14 | +0.010 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | suspension | 13 | 11 | 4/11 | +0.055 |
| confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out | key player out | 11 | 11 | 6/11 | -0.012 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 11 | 9 | 4/9 | +0.020 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | other | 10 | 9 | 7/9 | -0.018 |
| confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out | key player out | 9 | 7 | 1/7 | +0.037 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for other | other | 9 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.002 |
| about an earlier game, not this one | key player out | 8 | 5 | 4/5 | -0.032 |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching change | 8 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.027 |
| QB out: the model already uses the named starter | key player out | 6 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.011 |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out | key player out | 6 | 6 | 2/6 | +0.006 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out | key player out | 5 | 5 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | motivation | 5 | 5 | 1/5 | +0.039 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | travel | 5 | 5 | 3/5 | -0.010 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | turmoil | 5 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 5 | 5 | 5/5 | -0.088 |
| retired: schedule feed now names this QB | QB change | 5 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.007 |
| QB is already the named starter | QB change | 4 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.068 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 4 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 4 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.017 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | other | 4 | 4 | 1/4 | +0.004 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 3 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation | motivation | 3 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 3 | 3 | 3/3 | -0.016 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for QB change | QB change | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | -0.000 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.005 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for travel | travel | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.013 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | motivation | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.067 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.034 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.011 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.002 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for QB change | QB change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.015 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for motivation | motivation | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.009 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for travel | travel | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.005 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | suspension | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.003 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.001 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 0 | – | – |
Season: stats model 76–42, model + analyst 79–39; 98 games moved, 5 picks flipped (4 won).
SEA @ DEN Thu 8:15 PM
est. model 54% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 52.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Clear
· final 14–17
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Seahawks tailoring playbook for Sam Darnold to make swift decisions and avoid turnovers; model has Drew Lock as starter but Darnold appears to be the actual QB | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.75 | +4.5 | helped -0.039 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Thursday night game vs Seahawks | DEN | Talanoa Hufanga | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Thursday night game vs Seahawks | DEN | Pat Surtain II | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.018 |
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Head Coach Sean Payton took over play-calling duties from OC Davis Webb this week | DEN | 0.70 | +1.4 | helped -0.013 | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR activated from reserve/injured list for Thursday game vs Broncos | SEA | Irv Charles | 0.75 | -1.1 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out Listed as DNP (does not practice) on Monday injury report; tight end status unclear for Thursday | SEA | Drake Thomas | 0.40 | +0.8 | helped -0.007 |
HOU @ JAX Sun 9:30 AM
est. model 61% home → analyst 58% (-2.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 62.0°F, wind 21.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 34–31
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Left tackle placed on injured reserve; arthroscopic knee surgery scheduled | JAX | Anton Harrison | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.023 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) wind 21 mph at kickoff (Mostly Sunny) | JAX | 1.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety will not travel to London; ruled out for Week 6 | HOU | Jalen Pitre | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Running back will not travel to London; ruled out for Week 6 | HOU | David Montgomery | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Wide receiver will not travel to London; ruled out for Week 6 | HOU | Tank Dell | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Cornerback ruled out for Week 6 | JAX | Montaric Brown | 0.90 | -1.8 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Long snapper ruled out for Week 6 | JAX | Ross Matiscik | 0.90 | -1.8 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Long snapper lost in Week 5 game vs Eagles; Jaguars bringing healthy replacement for Week 6 | JAX | Ross Matiscik | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jaguars lost offensive lineman Anton Harrison during Week 5 game vs. Eagles in London | JAX | Anton Harrison | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Wide receiver making Texans debut this week after trade from Cardinals | HOU | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.95 | -1.4 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety considered week-to-week after Sunday's win over Titans | HOU | Jalen Pitre | 0.70 | +1.4 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back considered week-to-week after Sunday's win over Titans | HOU | David Montgomery | 0.70 | +1.4 | hurt +0.017 |
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Head coach DeMeco Ryans took over defensive play-calling duties from coordinator Matt Burke | HOU | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.017 | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Offensive tackle activated from IR and back on active roster | HOU | Braden Smith | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Defensive end ejected on opening kickoff vs Eagles; suspension status for next game unclear | JAX | Bryan Thomas Jr. | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Long snapper injured on first snap Sunday in London; Jacob Bobenmoyer signed as replacement for Week 6 | JAX | Ross Matiscik | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Listed as questionable for London game; practice status indicates game-time decision uncertainty | HOU | Wade Woodaz | 0.30 | +0.6 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Listed as questionable for London game; practice status indicates game-time decision uncertainty | HOU | Henry To'oTo'o | 0.30 | +0.6 | hurt +0.007 |
5 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CHI @ ATL Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 64% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 57.0°F, wind 15.0 mph, Sunny
· final 31–23
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| suspension Montez Sweat suspended two games | CHI | Montez Sweat | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report LB placed on IR with hamstring injury | ATL | Yasir Abdullah | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.024 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tyson Bagent benched mid-game vs. Packers; Case Keenum replaced him in 4th quarter after 2 INTs | CHI | Case Keenum | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.073 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Caleb Williams progressing from hamstring injury but Bears have not determined starter if he cannot play; Tyson Bagent benched in Week 5 loss | CHI | Caleb Williams | 0.70 | +4.2 | hurt +0.054 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Defensive end activated from injured reserve then placed back on IR | CHI | Dayo Odeyingbo | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.024 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Two-game suspension announced | CHI | Montez Sweat | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Suspended two games for PED violation; out for Week 6 | CHI | Montez Sweat | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) RB will not play Week 5 due to ankle injury | ATL | Savion Williams | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Running back ruled out for Week 5 with ankle injury | ATL | Savion Williams | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Running back ruled out for Week 5 due to ankle injury | CHI | Savion Williams | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Ruled out for Week 5 due to ankle injury | ATL | Savion Williams | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rib injury suffered late in regulation vs Ravens; unable to play in overtime; status uncertain for Week 6 | ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Activated from PUP list; defensive end returns to availability | CHI | Shemar Turner | 0.95 | -1.4 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Cornerback activated from injured reserve, expected to play vs Falcons | CHI | Kyler Gordon | 0.90 | -1.4 | helped -0.017 |
BAL @ CLE Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 33% home → analyst 37% (+3.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 55.0°F, wind 8.0 mph, Sunny
· final 10–13
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Tyler Huntley starting for second straight week with Lamar Jackson ruled out | BAL | Tyler Huntley | 0.95 | +5.7 | helped -0.075 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back placed on IR after Week 5 | CLE | Raheim Sanders | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.025 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Lamar Jackson ruled out with ankle injury; Tyler Huntley starting vs. Falcons in Week 5 | BAL | Tyler Huntley | 0.95 | +5.7 | helped -0.075 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Lamar Jackson ruled out with ankle injury for Week 5; will miss Ravens-Falcons SNF game | BAL | 0.95 | +5.7 | helped -0.075 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Lamar Jackson ruled out for Week 5 vs Falcons with ankle injury; Tyler Huntley to start | BAL | Tyler Huntley | 0.95 | +5.7 | helped -0.075 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: QB is already the named starter Lamar Jackson ruled out for Week 5 vs Falcons (ankle injury); Tyler Huntley to start | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.95 | +5.7 | helped -0.075 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Center ruled out for Week 6 vs. Browns | BAL | Cam Jurgens | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Lamar Jackson out with ankle injury; Tyler Huntley started Week 5 vs. Falcons | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Browns WR KC Concepcion concussed by Minkah Fitzpatrick hit on Sunday, status unclear for Week 6 | CLE | KC Concepcion | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Week 5 game vs. Jets in walking boots; injury status unclear for Week 6 vs. Ravens | CLE | Carson Schwesinger | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Week 5 game vs. Jets in walking boots; injury status unclear for Week 6 vs. Ravens | CLE | Quinshon Judkins | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out Added to injury report as limited participant Thursday | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.45 | +0.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game QB out for Week 5 game vs Falcons; status for Week 6 vs Browns uncertain but improving per HC Jesse Minter (status uncertain: counted at 35%) | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.65 | +0.5 | helped -0.006 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for QB change Lamar Jackson ruled out with ankle injury for Week 5; backup QB will start vs Falcons (not vs Browns) | BAL | 0.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 |
TEN @ IND Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 79% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 54.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Sunny
· final 26–20
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with hamstring injury, will miss multiple weeks | IND | Arden Key | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out Added to injury report Friday as questionable; Jones's most frequent target | IND | Tyler Warren | 0.35 | -0.7 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out Limited at Wednesday practice; status unclear for Sunday | IND | Josh Downs | 0.35 | -0.7 | helped -0.011 |
7 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
NYJ @ NE Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 80% home → analyst 75% (-4.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 49.0°F, wind 2.0 mph, Sunny
· final 19–26
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB sidelined with high ankle sprain, will miss multiple weeks | NE | TreVeyon Henderson | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Fullback placed on injured reserve | NE | Reggie Gilliam | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on injured reserve | NE | Mack Hollins | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report LT week-to-week with knee injury; not ruled out but status uncertain for Week 6 (status uncertain: counted at 35%) | NE | Will Campbell | 0.65 | -0.5 | hurt +0.002 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 6 game vs Patriots; had finger procedure | NYJ | Adonai Mitchell | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB out multiple weeks with high ankle sprain suffered in Week 5 vs Raiders | NE | TreVeyon Henderson | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Did not play Week 5 due to quad injury sustained in Week 3; still week-to-week | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Had procedure on finger, return timetable uncertain, expected out another week | NYJ | Adonai Mitchell | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rookie TE in concussion protocol after head injury vs Browns | NYJ | Kenyon Sadiq | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Activated off injured reserve after 4-game absence due to high ankle sprain; expected to play Sunday vs Jets | NE | A.J. Brown | 0.95 | +1.4 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LT week-to-week with knee injury; status unclear for Week 6 game | NE | Will Campbell | 0.70 | -1.4 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR activated from injured reserve | NYJ | Tim Patrick | 0.90 | -1.4 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Safety returned from injury, recorded 16 tackles and interception vs Bears | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.85 | -1.3 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Offensive player returning after injury absence | NYJ | Kenyon Sadiq | 0.75 | -1.1 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Offensive lineman returning after injury absence | NYJ | Omar Cooper Jr. | 0.75 | -1.1 | hurt +0.005 |
NO @ NYG Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 63% home → analyst 62% (-0.7 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 53.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Sunny
· final 34–27
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out Missed second straight practice Thursday with illness; status uncertain for Sunday | NO | Chris Olave | 0.45 | +0.9 | hurt +0.011 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CAR @ PHI Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 43% home → analyst 35% (-7.7 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 52.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Sunny
· final 25–14
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Jalen Hurts placed on IR with blood clot; Tanner McKee confirmed as starter | PHI | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.044 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Panthers defensive tackle placed on injured reserve | CAR | Cam Jackson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ejected on opening kickoff of Week 5 game vs. Jaguars; will miss Week 6 vs. Panthers due to ejection suspension | PHI | Jeremiah Trotter Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: schedule feed now names this QB Jalen Hurts ruled out with superficial blood clot in calf; Tanner McKee starting instead | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.99 | -5.9 | helped -0.046 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Placed on injured reserve with blood clot; will miss at least four weeks | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 1.00 | -2.0 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | PHI | Will Shipley | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out with hamstring injury for Week 6 vs Panthers | PHI | Saquon Barkley | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) WR ruled out for Week 5 vs Jaguars | PHI | DeVonta Smith | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) RB ruled out for Week 5 vs Jaguars | PHI | Saquon Barkley | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB out multiple weeks with foot injury | PHI | Will Shipley | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said it would be 'miraculous' if Hunt plays Week 6; not expected to play | PHI | Jalyx Hunt | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Wide receiver cleared from injury report and will play | PHI | DeVonta Smith | 0.90 | +1.4 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Ejected on opening kickoff of Week 5 game; suspension status for Week 6 unclear but ejection creates immediate depth chart impact | PHI | Jeremiah Trotter Jr. | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Offensive tackle activated and set to make 2026 debut after blood clot recovery | CAR | Taylor Moton | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Panthers designated RB Trevor Etienne for return from injured reserve | CAR | Trevor Etienne | 0.80 | -1.2 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Edge rusher left London game in walking boot; injury status unclear for next week | PHI | Jalyx Hunt | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Offensive lineman activated | CAR | Turk Wharton | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.009 |
4 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
PIT @ TB Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 50% home → analyst 46% (-3.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 75.0°F, wind 15.0 mph, Sunny
· final 26–19
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Baker Mayfield ruled out; Jalon Daniels to start per OC Zac Robinson confirmation | TB | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.053 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.019 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) wind 20 mph at kickoff (Mostly Sunny) | TB | 1.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Mayfield missed last two games with dislocated thumb; testing thumb Wednesday with throwing session; Jalon Daniels is current starter | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.70 | -4.2 | helped -0.040 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out vs Buccaneers | PIT | Ben Skowronek | 0.90 | +1.8 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR expected to miss multiple weeks with finger injury sustained vs Colts | PIT | Roman Wilson | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR will be without vs. Buccaneers | PIT | Ben Skowronek | 0.80 | +1.6 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR opened 21-day return-to-practice window, eligible to return | TB | David Sills | 0.70 | +1.1 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Late addition to injury report, listed as questionable | TB | Josiah Trotter | 0.30 | -0.6 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Missed practice with illness, questionable status for Sunday | PIT | DK Metcalf | 0.30 | +0.6 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out QB missed last two games with dislocated thumb; testing status Wednesday but not yet cleared | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.30 | -0.6 | helped -0.006 |
5 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
ARI @ LA Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 85% home → analyst 85% (+0.3 pts)
· final 18–16
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| suspension Suspended one game for punch incident; will miss Cardinals game Sunday | LA | Alaric Jackson | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.035 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback ruled inactive for Week 6 due to groin injury suffered in Thursday practice | LA | Trent McDuffie | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.034 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | ARI | Isaiah Adams | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Out for season with torn left biceps | ARI | Paris Johnson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.031 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cardinals discussing making Carson Beck active on game day; Brissett is named starter but team considering QB change | ARI | Carson Beck | 0.60 | +3.6 | hurt +0.056 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Star receiver traded to Texans; will not play for Cardinals | ARI | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.99 | +2.0 | hurt +0.032 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Left tackle suspended for punching Bills' Bradley Chubb; David Quessenberry starting at LT | LA | Alaric Jackson | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.034 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Suspension reduced to 1 game after appeal for postgame punch; will miss Week 6 vs Cardinals | LA | Alaric Jackson | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.034 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Running back ruled out for Week 6 due to ankle injury | ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Traded away; inactive vs. Lions, no longer with Cardinals | ARI | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Star WR traded away; inactive vs Lions, will not play for Cardinals going forward | ARI | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Wide receiver traded away; inactive vs. Lions this week | ARI | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Star WR traded away; inactive vs Lions, will not play for Cardinals going forward | ARI | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Traded away; inactive vs Lions per report, will not play for Cardinals going forward | ARI | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Traded away; no longer on roster | ARI | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.031 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Not expected to return to practice this week; remains on injured reserve | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.030 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left tackle threw punch at Bills' Bradley Chubb in postgame altercation Monday; facing NFL discipline | LA | Alaric Jackson | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.026 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Did not practice Wednesday due to lingering ankle issue; status uncertain for Sunday | ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback injured in practice with groin injury, questionable status for Sunday | LA | Trent McDuffie | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.021 |
7 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
LAC @ KC Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 81% home → analyst 87% (+7.2 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 12.0 mph, Sunny
· final 6–22
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Chargers signed QB Jake Browning; Trey Lance on IR with groin injury | LAC | Jake Browning | 0.90 | +5.4 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Fullback placed on IR, will miss minimum four games | LAC | Alec Ingold | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Wide receiver placed on IR | KC | Tyquan Thornton | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Inactive for Week 6 game | LAC | Bud Dupree | 0.90 | +1.8 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Left tackle ruled out for Week 6 vs. Chargers | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Wide receiver ruled out for Week 6 vs. Chargers | KC | Rashee Rice | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: QB out: the model already uses the named starter QB placed on IR with groin injury | LAC | Trey Lance | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR suffered hamstring injury vs. Broncos on Oct 11 | LAC | Tre' Harris | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Off injury report, set to play vs. Chiefs | LAC | Quentin Johnston | 0.95 | -1.4 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR did not practice Wednesday; status uncertain for Sunday | KC | Rashee Rice | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR active for emergency in Week 5, could return in Week 6 | LAC | Ladd McConkey | 0.65 | -1.0 | hurt +0.004 |
BUF @ LV Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 28% home → analyst 33% (+5.5 pts)
· final 33–30
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Inactive for Bills vs. Raiders | BUF | Ed Oliver | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Inactive for Bills vs. Raiders | BUF | DJ Moore | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter returning 21-day practice window opened Wednesday; eligible to return from IR | LV | Carter Runyon | 0.70 | +1.1 | hurt +0.006 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Bills staying on West Coast after Monday OT win vs Rams; short week before Sunday game in Las Vegas | BUF | 0.70 | +0.7 | hurt +0.004 | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Coach Klint Kubiak confirmed RB will play Sunday vs Bills after injury concern | LV | Ashton Jeanty | 0.95 | +1.4 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out TE Carter Runyon's 21-day practice window opened; eligible to return from IR | LV | Carter Runyon | 0.65 | +1.0 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out WR DJ Moore remains questionable for Week 6 after first full practice; status uncertain | BUF | DJ Moore | 0.45 | +0.9 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Top running back listed as questionable for Sunday vs. Patriots; status uncertain for game | LV | Ashton Jeanty | 0.30 | -0.6 | helped -0.003 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
DAL @ GB Sun 8:20 PM
est. model 61% home → analyst 60% (-1.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 58.0°F, wind 12.0 mph, Clear
· final 13–23
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report LB downgraded to out for Sunday night game vs Packers | DAL | DeMarvion Overshown | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB placed on injured reserve, eligible to return Week 9 | GB | Chris Brooks | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Edge rusher not expected to return to practice this week; will not play against Cowboys despite earlier speculation about potential return | GB | Micah Parsons | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back has missed five games on paid leave due to domestic violence investigation; status remains in limbo. | GB | Josh Jacobs | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Defensive lineman ruled out for season with torn Achilles | GB | Javon Hargrave | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Defensive end not expected to return from ACL tear for this game | GB | Micah Parsons | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Believed to have suffered a torn Achilles tendon | GB | Javon Hargrave | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.012 |
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Defensive coordinator Christian Parker moved to booth; Mike Pettine added as senior defensive assistant | DAL | 0.70 | +1.4 | helped -0.011 | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out RB reinstated from Commissioner Exempt list, eligible to play | GB | Josh Jacobs | 0.90 | +1.4 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report DE listed as Doubtful; Packers placed 3 on IR before Week 6 | GB | Jordon Riley | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Linebacker listed as questionable but head coach Schottenheimer indicated he is closer to doubtful for Sunday | DAL | DeMarvion Overshown | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.010 |
6 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
WAS @ SF Mon 8:15 PM
est. model 81% home → analyst 80% (-1.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 13.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 17–23
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR ruled out for Monday Night Football | SF | Christian Kirk | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| suspension Starting linebacker suspended for Week 6 after headbutt incident; appeal denied | SF | Dre Greenlaw | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Running back ruled out for Monday night vs. 49ers | WAS | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Hamstring injury; will miss time in coming weeks | SF | Deebo Samuel | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Suspended 1 game for headbutting incident; ineligible for Week 6 vs Washington | SF | Dre Greenlaw | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| suspension declined: retired: same player already counted in this game Suspended one game for head-butting incident; eligible for Week 6 vs WAS only if appeal is granted before Monday | SF | Dre Greenlaw | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') One-game suspension for headbutting incident; appeal pending but ineligible for Week 6 vs Washington unless appeal succeeds | SF | Dre Greenlaw | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Fullback set to return after one-game absence from knee injury | SF | Kyle Juszczyk | 0.95 | +1.4 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB was unavailable Thursday (DNP) to prep for Monday Night Football vs 49ers | WAS | Bill Croskey-Merritt | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR practice window opened; eligible to return from injury | SF | Christian Kirk | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Could return this week after injury | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out WR misses practice with Achilles soreness; status unclear for Monday | SF | Mike Evans | 0.45 | -0.9 | hurt +0.003 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
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