Power rankings
As of Nov 4. Strength = points better than an average team on a neutral field, from Elo, opponent-adjusted EPA and the named starting QB.
What changed
The latest move for each team that moved, with the reason.
| Team | Rank | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE Cleveland Browns | 31 (was 20) | -11 | lost to PIT 6–27; QB now Shedeur Sanders (was Deshaun Watson) |
| SEA Seattle Seahawks | 15 (was 12) | -3 | lost to CHI 17–34 though we picked them; QB now Drew Lock (was Sam Darnold) |
| NO New Orleans Saints | 25 (was 27) | +2 | lost to PIT 10–16 |
| PHI Philadelphia Eagles | 28 (was 29) | +1 | lost to WAS 10–27; QB now Joe Milton III (was Tanner McKee) |
| BAL Baltimore Ravens | 21 (was 22) | +1 | lost to BUF 10–36; QB now Joe Fagnano (was Tyler Huntley) |
| LV Las Vegas Raiders | 24 (was 25) | +1 | beat NYJ 38–33 though we picked NYJ |
| GB Green Bay Packers | 13 (was 14) | +1 | beat CAR 27–19 as our pick |
| MIA Miami Dolphins | 29 (was 30) | +1 | lost to NE 19–24 |
All 32 teams
Strength: expected margin vs an average team, neutral field. Off / Def EPA: opponent-adjusted expected points added per play (offense: higher is better; defense: EPA allowed, lower is better). QB: the named starter for the next game and his shrunk EPA per dropback.
| # | Team | Division | Record | Strength | Elo | Off EPA | Def EPA | QB | QB rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 6–1 | +7.6 | 1669 | +0.117 | +0.008 | Josh Allen | +0.149 |
| 2 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 4–4 | +6.3 | 1590 | +0.060 | -0.043 | Matthew Stafford | +0.115 |
| 3 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 5–2 | +5.9 | 1620 | +0.060 | -0.035 | Trevor Lawrence | +0.096 |
| 4 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 6–1 | +5.4 | 1625 | +0.079 | +0.021 | Brock Purdy | +0.151 |
| 5 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 5–2 | +5.3 | 1583 | +0.086 | +0.023 | Jared Goff | +0.164 |
| 6 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 5–2 | +4.9 | 1572 | +0.044 | +0.049 | Joe Burrow | +0.136 |
| 7 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 6–2 | +4.7 | 1623 | +0.049 | -0.000 | Caleb Williams | +0.081 |
| 8 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 6–2 | +3.6 | 1637 | +0.012 | -0.047 | Bo Nix | +0.035 |
| 9 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 5–3 | +3.6 | 1608 | +0.051 | -0.010 | Drake Maye | +0.119 |
| 10 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 5–2 | +3.3 | 1554 | +0.051 | -0.002 | Patrick Mahomes | +0.096 |
| 11 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 6–1 | +3.0 | 1619 | -0.059 | -0.092 | Kyler Murray | -0.001 |
| 12 ▲1 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 6–2 | +2.1 | 1575 | +0.004 | -0.002 | Aaron Rodgers | -0.032 |
| 13 ▲1 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 5–3 | +1.7 | 1539 | +0.049 | -0.015 | Jordan Love | +0.133 |
| 14 ▲1 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 3–5 | +1.4 | 1501 | -0.013 | -0.038 | Baker Mayfield | -0.008 |
| 15 ▼3 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 4–4 | +1.1 | 1627 | +0.006 | -0.077 | Drew Lock | +0.033 |
| 16 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 2–5 | +0.4 | 1516 | -0.006 | -0.049 | C.J. Stroud | +0.048 |
| 17 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 3–5 | +0.2 | 1451 | +0.049 | +0.098 | Dak Prescott | +0.116 |
| 18 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 3–5 | -0.9 | 1464 | -0.033 | -0.004 | Michael Penix Jr. | +0.007 |
| 19 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 2–4–1 | -2.1 | 1443 | +0.017 | +0.058 | Jayden Daniels | +0.031 |
| 20 ▲1 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 4–2–1 | -2.9 | 1463 | -0.011 | +0.039 | J.J. McCarthy | -0.030 |
| 21 ▲1 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 4–4 | -3.2 | 1503 | +0.029 | +0.015 | Joe Fagnano | -0.058 |
| 22 ▲1 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 3–4 | -3.4 | 1437 | -0.008 | +0.050 | Bryce Young | -0.017 |
| 23 ▲1 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 2–6 | -3.5 | 1406 | -0.011 | +0.021 | Daniel Jones | -0.053 |
| 24 ▲1 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 4–4 | -3.7 | 1420 | -0.057 | +0.044 | Kirk Cousins | +0.078 |
| 25 ▲2 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 2–5 | -4.2 | 1412 | -0.039 | +0.023 | Tyler Shough | +0.007 |
| 26 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 2–6 | -4.2 | 1346 | -0.022 | +0.059 | Geno Smith | +0.013 |
| 27 ▲1 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 3–5 | -5.4 | 1400 | -0.000 | +0.048 | Gardner Minshew | +0.006 |
| 28 ▲1 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 2–6 | -5.4 | 1420 | -0.029 | -0.003 | Joe Milton III | -0.003 |
| 29 ▲1 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 1–6 | -5.6 | 1380 | -0.016 | +0.068 | Malik Willis | -0.003 |
| 30 ▲1 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0–7 | -5.6 | 1398 | -0.078 | -0.045 | Justin Herbert | -0.059 |
| 31 ▼11 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 5–3 | -5.9 | 1452 | -0.098 | -0.023 | Shedeur Sanders | -0.101 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 1–7 | -7.6 | 1308 | -0.076 | +0.066 | Cam Ward | -0.090 |
Quick answers
How are our NFL power rankings made?
Each team gets a strength rating: how many points better or worse than an average NFL team it would be on a neutral field. It comes from Elo, opponent-adjusted EPA and the named starting quarterback, and the teams are ranked by it.
How often do the NFL power rankings update?
Every week, after the games are final. The date at the top of the page is the last update, and 'What changed' says why teams moved.
How accurate are our NFL picks?
Every pick is stored before kickoff and graded after the game. The season record, week by week, is on the record page; the multi-season test against past games is on the How accurate page.
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