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Record

Every pick is stored before tip-off and graded against the final score after the game ends. Every graded pick is listed below; nothing is edited or removed.

67–40

2026-27 record · 62.6% of 107 games

0.210

Brier score (lower is better; a coin flip is 0.250)

0.603

log loss (lower is better; a coin flip is 0.693)

13 of 13

hit rate on est. 80%+ picks (13)

longest streak · current 2

11.5

avg. margin miss (points)

One season record: v2.3 made the picks from opening night until the switch to v2.4 (new player ratings, October 2026); every pick is graded exactly as it was stored.

For comparison: our v2.4 model went 68.0% (Brier 0.206) in a walk-forward replay of the last three seasons, 2023-24 66.9%, 2024-25 68.4%, 2025-26 68.8%. How accurate NBA models are

Does confidence mean anything?

Stated est. win chance vs. how often the pick was right. When we say 70%, are we right about 70% of the time?

80–90% (13)

13 of 13

70–80% (22)

73%

60–70% (34)

65%

50–60% (38)

42%

Month by month

Month	Games	Right	Rate
2026-10	88	55	62%
2026-11	19	12	63%

Every graded pick

107 graded, newest first. "Stored" is when the pick of record was saved, always before tip-off.

Date	Game	Our pick	Est.	Final	Result	Stored
11-02	MIA at LAL	LAL	54%	117–138	Our pick right	Nov 2, 9:04 PM ET
11-02	TOR at LAC	TOR	58%	125–118	Our pick right	Nov 2, 9:04 PM ET
11-02	PHX at GSW	PHX	52%	113–116	Our pick wrong	Nov 2, 9:04 PM ET
11-02	POR at DEN	DEN	65%	118–110	Our pick wrong	Nov 2, 8:04 PM ET
11-02	UTA at SAS	SAS	90%	97–119	Our pick right	Nov 2, 7:34 PM ET
11-02	BOS at HOU	HOU	61%	93–109	Our pick right	Nov 2, 7:34 PM ET
11-02	MIL at MIN	MIN	84%	100–112	Our pick right	Nov 2, 7:04 PM ET
11-02	NOP at MEM	MEM	63%	135–134	Our pick wrong	Nov 2, 7:04 PM ET
11-02	SAC at DAL	DAL	70%	115–100	Our pick wrong	Nov 2, 7:04 PM ET
11-02	CHI at PHI	PHI	75%	107–126	Our pick right	Nov 2, 6:34 PM ET
11-02	WAS at ORL	ORL	65%	103–94	Our pick wrong	Nov 2, 6:34 PM ET
11-02	BKN at NYK	NYK	85%	90–103	Our pick right	Nov 2, 6:34 PM ET
11-02	ATL at IND	ATL	83%	108–104	Our pick right	Nov 2, 6:34 PM ET
11-02	DET at CHA	DET	68%	124–91	Our pick right	Nov 2, 6:34 PM ET
11-02	OKC at CLE	CLE	56%	117–112	Our pick wrong	Nov 2, 6:04 PM ET
11-01	TOR at LAL	LAL	64%	125–131	Our pick right	Nov 1, 8:04 PM ET
11-01	LAC at GSW	GSW	52%	112–124	Our pick right	Nov 1, 7:34 PM ET
11-01	BKN at IND	IND	57%	98–90	Our pick wrong	Nov 1, 4:00 PM ET
11-01	BOS at ORL	BOS	66%	108–97	Our pick right	Nov 1, 2:34 PM ET
10-31	OKC at HOU	OKC	55%	98–119	Our pick wrong	Oct 31, 7:34 PM ET
10-31	MIN at SAS	SAS	76%	111–121	Our pick right	Oct 31, 7:04 PM ET
10-31	CLE at MIL	CLE	75%	136–111	Our pick right	Oct 31, 7:04 PM ET
10-31	SAC at MEM	MEM	77%	105–136	Our pick right	Oct 31, 7:04 PM ET
10-31	ATL at NOP	ATL	60%	99–121	Our pick wrong	Oct 31, 6:04 PM ET
10-31	PHI at CHA	PHI	54%	109–104	Our pick right	Oct 31, 5:04 PM ET
10-31	POR at UTA	POR	73%	112–90	Our pick right	Oct 31, 2:04 PM ET
10-30	DEN at PHX	DEN	62%	127–120	Our pick right	Oct 30, 9:04 PM ET
10-30	LAL at GSW	LAL	58%	95–112	Our pick wrong	Oct 30, 9:04 PM ET
10-30	LAC at MIN	MIN	64%	101–127	Our pick right	Oct 30, 7:04 PM ET
10-30	HOU at DAL	HOU	75%	111–116	Our pick wrong	Oct 30, 7:04 PM ET
10-30	IND at MIA	MIA	71%	125–145	Our pick right	Oct 30, 7:04 PM ET
10-30	ORL at TOR	TOR	65%	121–114	Our pick wrong	Oct 30, 6:34 PM ET
10-30	NYK at PHI	PHI	54%	93–98	Our pick right	Oct 30, 6:34 PM ET
10-30	DET at BKN	DET	69%	110–94	Our pick right	Oct 30, 6:34 PM ET
10-30	CHI at BOS	BOS	88%	111–125	Our pick right	Oct 30, 6:34 PM ET
10-30	CHA at WAS	CHA	62%	79–95	Our pick wrong	Oct 30, 6:04 PM ET
10-29	MEM at POR	POR	70%	124–103	Our pick wrong	Oct 29, 9:04 PM ET
10-29	SAC at NOP	NOP	59%	120–132	Our pick right	Oct 29, 7:04 PM ET
10-29	CLE at ATL	CLE	51%	111–114	Our pick wrong	Oct 29, 7:04 PM ET
10-28	LAL at LAC	LAC	61%	103–87	Our pick wrong	Oct 28, 9:34 PM ET
10-28	OKC at DAL	OKC	76%	96–120	Our pick wrong	Oct 28, 8:34 PM ET
10-28	SAS at UTA	SAS	78%	117–111	Our pick right	Oct 28, 8:04 PM ET
10-28	DEN at NOP	DEN	66%	104–91	Our pick right	Oct 28, 7:04 PM ET
10-28	GSW at MIN	MIN	72%	119–114	Our pick wrong	Oct 28, 7:04 PM ET
10-28	HOU at MIL	HOU	78%	132–100	Our pick right	Oct 28, 7:04 PM ET
10-28	NYK at CHI	NYK	65%	133–127	Our pick right	Oct 28, 7:04 PM ET
10-28	ORL at TOR	TOR	61%	99–129	Our pick right	Oct 28, 6:34 PM ET
10-28	PHI at IND	PHI	63%	114–109	Our pick right	Oct 28, 6:04 PM ET
10-28	CHA at DET	DET	65%	89–97	Our pick right	Oct 28, 6:04 PM ET
10-28	WAS at CLE	CLE	85%	111–121	Our pick right	Oct 28, 6:04 PM ET
10-28	MIA at ATL	ATL	66%	129–117	Our pick wrong	Oct 28, 6:04 PM ET
10-27	POR at LAL	LAL	56%	136–129	Our pick wrong	Oct 27, 10:04 PM ET
10-27	SAC at SAS	SAS	88%	103–130	Our pick right	Oct 27, 7:04 PM ET
10-27	DET at NYK	NYK	54%	97–111	Our pick right	Oct 27, 7:04 PM ET
10-27	BKN at BOS	BOS	83%	124–125	Our pick right	Oct 27, 6:34 PM ET
10-26	GSW at DEN	DEN	79%	134–114	Our pick wrong	Oct 26, 9:04 PM ET
10-26	MEM at UTA	MEM	57%	110–105	Our pick right	Oct 26, 8:04 PM ET
10-26	ATL at HOU	HOU	64%	110–120	Our pick right	Oct 26, 7:34 PM ET
10-26	PHX at OKC	OKC	79%	114–125	Our pick right	Oct 26, 7:04 PM ET
10-26	IND at MIL	IND	58%	102–110	Our pick wrong	Oct 26, 7:04 PM ET
10-26	DAL at MIA	MIA	72%	113–109	Our pick wrong	Oct 26, 6:34 PM ET
10-26	CHI at BOS	BOS	86%	99–134	Our pick right	Oct 26, 6:34 PM ET
10-26	MIN at CLE	CLE	61%	125–127	Our pick right	Oct 26, 6:04 PM ET
10-26	WAS at CHA	CHA	72%	103–110	Our pick right	Oct 26, 6:04 PM ET
10-25	MEM at SAC	SAC	52%	123–112	Our pick wrong	Oct 25, 8:04 PM ET
10-25	DET at PHI	DET	64%	106–93	Our pick right	Oct 25, 6:34 PM ET
10-25	LAC at OKC	OKC	82%	101–108	Our pick right	Oct 25, 6:04 PM ET
10-25	TOR at MIN	MIN	53%	94–117	Our pick right	Oct 25, 6:04 PM ET
10-25	ORL at NYK	NYK	67%	111–102	Our pick wrong	Oct 25, 6:04 PM ET
10-25	IND at BKN	IND	62%	136–109	Our pick right	Oct 25, 5:04 PM ET
10-25	LAL at UTA	LAL	69%	132–123	Our pick right	Oct 25, 4:00 PM ET
10-24	GSW at PHX	PHX	71%	122–131	Our pick right	Oct 24, 9:04 PM ET
10-24	NOP at DEN	DEN	84%	135–141	Our pick right	Oct 24, 8:04 PM ET
10-24	HOU at ATL	HOU	53%	121–114	Our pick right	Oct 24, 7:34 PM ET
10-24	SAS at DAL	SAS	77%	122–106	Our pick right	Oct 24, 7:04 PM ET
10-24	WAS at CHI	CHI	66%	124–120	Our pick wrong	Oct 24, 7:04 PM ET
10-24	MIL at PHI	PHI	83%	116–127	Our pick right	Oct 24, 6:34 PM ET
10-24	BKN at CLE	CLE	81%	121–125	Our pick right	Oct 24, 6:34 PM ET
10-24	MIA at CHA	MIA	53%	110–115	Our pick wrong	Oct 24, 5:04 PM ET
10-23	POR at SAC	POR	69%	128–120	Our pick right	Oct 23, 9:04 PM ET
10-23	LAC at LAL	LAL	64%	117–125	Our pick right	Oct 23, 9:04 PM ET
10-23	MEM at GSW	GSW	64%	111–108	Our pick wrong	Oct 23, 9:04 PM ET
10-23	NOP at UTA	UTA	52%	119–120	Our pick right	Oct 23, 9:04 PM ET
10-23	HOU at SAS	SAS	52%	114–110	Our pick wrong	Oct 23, 9:04 PM ET
10-23	DET at MIA	DET	57%	128–111	Our pick right	Oct 23, 4:01 PM ET
10-23	TOR at WAS	TOR	80%	112–102	Our pick right	Oct 23, 4:01 PM ET
10-23	MIN at ORL	ORL	58%	115–93	Our pick wrong	Oct 23, 4:01 PM ET
10-23	DAL at IND	IND	59%	121–105	Our pick wrong	Oct 23, 4:01 PM ET
10-23	ATL at CHA	ATL	53%	128–81	Our pick right	Oct 23, 4:01 PM ET
10-23	NYK at BOS	BOS	67%	103–107	Our pick right	Oct 23, 4:01 PM ET
10-23	CHI at MIL	MIL	53%	132–125	Our pick wrong	Oct 23, 3:07 PM ET
10-22	DEN at OKC	OKC	62%	84–96	Our pick right	Oct 22, 4:02 PM ET
10-22	CLE at PHI	CLE	56%	106–114	Our pick wrong	Oct 22, 4:02 PM ET
10-21	SAC at LAC	LAC	72%	96–121	Our pick right	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-21	PHX at POR	POR	56%	83–124	Our pick right	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-21	GSW at LAL	LAL	52%	105–127	Our pick right	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-21	DAL at HOU	HOU	75%	110–128	Our pick right	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-21	IND at NOP	NOP	52%	123–120	Our pick wrong	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-21	UTA at MEM	UTA	53%	103–123	Our pick wrong	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-21	CHI at TOR	TOR	72%	92–135	Our pick right	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-21	CHA at BKN	CHA	68%	110–103	Our pick right	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-21	MIN at MIA	MIA	56%	131–106	Our pick wrong	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-21	MIL at WAS	MIL	58%	116–128	Our pick wrong	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-21	ATL at ORL	ATL	51%	132–125	Our pick right	Oct 21, 4:01 PM ET
10-20	OKC at SAS	SAS	53%	116–104	Our pick wrong	Oct 20, 4:00 PM ET
10-20	PHI at NYK	NYK	67%	106–100	Our pick wrong	Oct 20, 4:00 PM ET
10-20	BOS at DET	BOS	52%	113–121	Our pick wrong	Oct 20, 12:23 PM ET

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