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Pro › NBA › Season · 2026-27

Season · 2026-27

Each team's strength comes from its current roster's lineup ratings, minutes-weighted; the rest of the schedule is simulated 5,000 times. 107 games already played count as final. Updated 2026-11-04.

NBA · 2026-27 · after 107 games

Where every team lands

Eastern Conference

15 teams · top 6 in, 7-10 play-in
#TeamEst. WMost likely finishPlayoffs
1 Boston Celtics 58 Likely #1–2 · 95% >99%

Where Boston Celtics can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

95%#1–2
5%#3–4
<1%#5–6
<1%Play-in
<1%Out

Tap any % for the math.

2 Detroit Pistons 54 Likely #1–2 · 79% >99%

Where Detroit Pistons can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

79%#1–2
19%#3–4
3%#5–6
<1%Play-in
<1%Out

Tap any % for the math.

3 Toronto Raptors 48 Likely #3–4 · 51% 98%

Where Toronto Raptors can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

12%#1–2
51%#3–4
26%#5–6
11%Play-in
<1%Out

Tap any % for the math.

4 New York Knicks 46 Likely #3–4 · 40% 95%

Where New York Knicks can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

6%#1–2
40%#3–4
34%#5–6
19%Play-in
<1%Out

Tap any % for the math.

5 Cleveland Cavaliers 44 Likely #5–6 · 34% 91%

Where Cleveland Cavaliers can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

3%#1–2
31%#3–4
34%#5–6
31%Play-in
<1%Out

Tap any % for the math.

6 Philadelphia 76ers 43 Likely Play-in · 37% 86%

Where Philadelphia 76ers can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

2%#1–2
24%#3–4
35%#5–6
37%Play-in
2%Out

Tap any % for the math.

7 Atlanta Hawks 43 Likely Play-in · 39% 86%

Where Atlanta Hawks can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

2%#1–2
22%#3–4
35%#5–6
39%Play-in
2%Out

Tap any % for the math.

8 Orlando Magic 40 Likely Play-in · 64% 64%

Where Orlando Magic can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
6%#3–4
20%#5–6
64%Play-in
9%Out

Tap any % for the math.

9 Charlotte Hornets 36 Likely Play-in · 62% 30%

Where Charlotte Hornets can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
6%#5–6
62%Play-in
32%Out

Tap any % for the math.

10 Miami Heat 36 Likely Play-in · 62% 29%

Where Miami Heat can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
6%#5–6
62%Play-in
31%Out

Tap any % for the math.

11 Indiana Pacers 34 Likely Out · 52% 17%

Where Indiana Pacers can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
2%#5–6
46%Play-in
52%Out

Tap any % for the math.

12 Washington Wizards 30 Likely Out · 86% 3%

Where Washington Wizards can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
<1%#5–6
14%Play-in
86%Out

Tap any % for the math.

13 Milwaukee Bucks 28 Likely Out · 93% 1%

Where Milwaukee Bucks can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
<1%#5–6
7%Play-in
93%Out

Tap any % for the math.

14 Brooklyn Nets 27 Likely Out · 95% 1%

Where Brooklyn Nets can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
<1%#5–6
5%Play-in
95%Out

Tap any % for the math.

15 Chicago Bulls 25 Likely Out · 98% <1%

Where Chicago Bulls can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
<1%#5–6
2%Play-in
98%Out

Tap any % for the math.

Western Conference

15 teams · top 6 in, 7-10 play-in
#TeamEst. WMost likely finishPlayoffs
1 Oklahoma City Thunder 65 Likely #1–2 · 99% >99%

Where Oklahoma City Thunder can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

99%#1–2
1%#3–4
<1%#5–6
<1%Play-in
<1%Out

Tap any % for the math.

2 Houston Rockets 60 Likely #1–2 · 90% >99%

Where Houston Rockets can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

90%#1–2
10%#3–4
<1%#5–6
<1%Play-in
<1%Out

Tap any % for the math.

3 San Antonio Spurs 53 Likely #3–4 · 78% >99%

Where San Antonio Spurs can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

10%#1–2
78%#3–4
10%#5–6
2%Play-in
<1%Out

Tap any % for the math.

4 Denver Nuggets 49 Likely #3–4 · 53% 96%

Where Denver Nuggets can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

1%#1–2
53%#3–4
31%#5–6
14%Play-in
<1%Out

Tap any % for the math.

5 Portland Trail Blazers 46 Likely #5–6 · 38% 85%

Where Portland Trail Blazers can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
26%#3–4
38%#5–6
33%Play-in
3%Out

Tap any % for the math.

6 Los Angeles Lakers 42 Likely Play-in · 55% 64%

Where Los Angeles Lakers can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
8%#3–4
26%#5–6
55%Play-in
11%Out

Tap any % for the math.

7 Golden State Warriors 42 Likely Play-in · 54% 63%

Where Golden State Warriors can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
7%#3–4
27%#5–6
54%Play-in
11%Out

Tap any % for the math.

8 Minnesota Timberwolves 42 Likely Play-in · 55% 59%

Where Minnesota Timberwolves can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
6%#3–4
25%#5–6
55%Play-in
14%Out

Tap any % for the math.

9 Phoenix Suns 41 Likely Play-in · 58% 52%

Where Phoenix Suns can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
5%#3–4
18%#5–6
58%Play-in
20%Out

Tap any % for the math.

10 Dallas Mavericks 41 Likely Play-in · 59% 49%

Where Dallas Mavericks can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
4%#3–4
17%#5–6
59%Play-in
20%Out

Tap any % for the math.

11 Memphis Grizzlies 38 Likely Play-in · 50% 27%

Where Memphis Grizzlies can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
1%#3–4
8%#5–6
50%Play-in
41%Out

Tap any % for the math.

12 LA Clippers 32 Likely Out · 89% 3%

Where LA Clippers can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
<1%#5–6
11%Play-in
89%Out

Tap any % for the math.

13 Utah Jazz 32 Likely Out · 92% 2%

Where Utah Jazz can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
<1%#5–6
8%Play-in
92%Out

Tap any % for the math.

14 New Orleans Pelicans 28 Likely Out · 99% <1%

Where New Orleans Pelicans can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
<1%#5–6
1%Play-in
99%Out

Tap any % for the math.

15 Sacramento Kings 26 Likely Out · >99% <1%

Where Sacramento Kings can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)

<1%#1–2
<1%#3–4
<1%#5–6
<1%Play-in
>99%Out

Tap any % for the math.

Tap a team for every place it can finish. % are estimates from 5,000 simulated seasons; nothing here is proven.
Why?

Each cell is how often the team ended the regular season in that seed band in 5,000 simulated seasons: an estimate, never a promise. Seeds 7-10 play the play-in; 11-15 are out. Title chances: how far each team went in the same seasons. We don't run exact playoff math for the NBA, so no team is marked In or Out here.

est. 55%
title chance #1 · Oklahoma City Thunder
est. 18%
title chance #2 · Boston Celtics
est. 16%
title chance #3 · Houston Rockets
est. 5%
title chance #4 · Detroit Pistons

Power rankings est.

Strength = points per 100 possessions better (or worse) than an average team this roster projects to be: a +5 team beats an average team by about five points a game on a neutral floor. A projection of the roster on paper, not a ranking of how good the team has looked. Range = 10th to 90th percentile of 5,000 simulated seasons, so about one team in five finishes outside its own range. Every chance is est.
#TeamStrengthEst. winsRangeLast yearPreseasonPlayoffsTitle
1OKC Thunder +11.865 60–69 6466 -1 >99%55%
2HOU Rockets +8.560 55–66 5259 +2 >99%16%
3BOS Celtics +7.758 53–63 5659 -1 >99%18%
4SAS Spurs +5.153 47–58 6152 +1 >99%2%
5DET Pistons +5.054 49–59 5949 +5 >99%5%
6DEN Nuggets +3.949 43–53 5444 +5 96%1%
7TOR Raptors +3.148 42–52 4641 +7 98%1%
8NYK Knicks +2.646 40–51 5249 -3 95%<1%
9POR Trail Blazers +1.546 40–51 4244 +1 85%<1%
10CLE Cavaliers +1.444 39–50 5245 -0 91%<1%
11ATL Hawks +0.743 38–48 4641 +2 86%<1%
12PHX Suns +0.641 36–46 4540 +1 52%<1%
13MIN Timberwolves +0.442 37–47 4938 +3 59%<1%
14GSW Warriors +0.342 37–48 3740 +2 63%<1%
15LAL Lakers 0.042 37–47 5338 +4 64%<1%
16ORL Magic -0.240 35–45 4443 -3 64%<1%
17DAL Mavericks -0.241 36–46 2641 -0 49%<1%
18PHI 76ers -0.443 38–49 4541 +3 86%<1%
19MEM Grizzlies -2.038 33–44 2433 +6 27%<1%
20MIA Heat -2.236 31–41 4339 -3 29%<1%
21CHA Hornets -2.236 31–41 4437 -1 30%<1%
22IND Pacers -2.434 29–40 1936 -2 17%<1%
23UTA Jazz -3.032 27–37 2237 -5 2%<1%
24LAC Clippers -3.232 27–38 4239 -7 3%<1%
25MIL Bucks -5.628 23–34 3231 -3 1%<1%
26BKN Nets -6.027 23–33 2030 -3 1%<1%
27NOP Pelicans -6.028 23–33 2629 -2 <1%<1%
28SAC Kings -6.126 22–32 2230 -3 <1%<1%
29WAS Wizards -6.230 25–35 1728 +1 3%<1%
30CHI Bulls -6.825 20–31 3130 -5 <1%<1%
Each team's strength comes from its players' ratings and expected minutes; the team page lists them with both numbers.

Projected standings · East est.

Top 6 = playoff spots; 7 to 10 = play-in. Chances are est. from the simulations; nobody is "in" or "out" until it's mathematically settled.
#TeamEst. winsPlayoffsPlay-in1 seedConf. champ
1BOS58 >99%<1%71%52%
2DET54 >99%<1%25%23%
3TOR48 98%11%2%10%
4NYK46 95%19%<1%7%
5CLE44 91%31%<1%4%
6PHI43 86%37%<1%1%
7ATL43 86%39%<1%2%
8ORL40 64%64%<1%<1%
9CHA36 30%62%<1%<1%
10MIA36 29%62%<1%<1%
11IND34 17%46%<1%<1%
12WAS30 3%14%<1%<1%
13MIL28 1%7%<1%<1%
14BKN27 1%5%<1%<1%
15CHI25 <1%2%<1%<1%

Projected standings · West est.

Top 6 = playoff spots; 7 to 10 = play-in. Chances are est. from the simulations; nobody is "in" or "out" until it's mathematically settled.
#TeamEst. winsPlayoffsPlay-in1 seedConf. champ
1OKC65 >99%<1%79%67%
2HOU60 >99%<1%20%24%
3SAS53 >99%2%<1%5%
4DEN49 96%14%<1%3%
5POR46 85%33%<1%<1%
6LAL42 64%55%<1%<1%
7GSW42 63%54%<1%<1%
8MIN42 59%55%<1%<1%
9PHX41 52%58%<1%<1%
10DAL41 49%59%<1%<1%
11MEM38 27%50%<1%<1%
12LAC32 3%11%<1%<1%
13UTA32 2%8%<1%<1%
14NOP28 <1%1%<1%<1%
15SAC26 <1%<1%<1%<1%

Up since the preseason projection

The preseason run of 2026-10-19 stays on the record.
TeamPreseasonNowChange
TOR41 (#12)48 (#7)+6.6
MEM33 (#24)38 (#19)+5.8
DEN44 (#9)49 (#6)+5.0
DET49 (#6)54 (#5)+4.9
LAL38 (#20)42 (#15)+4.4

Down since the preseason projection

 
TeamPreseasonNowChange
LAC39 (#18)32 (#24)-6.8
UTA37 (#21)32 (#23)-4.9
CHI30 (#26)25 (#30)-4.8
MIA39 (#19)36 (#20)-3.4
MIL31 (#25)28 (#25)-3.3

Biggest risers vs last season

Est. wins against last season's actual wins.
TeamLastEst.Change
IND1934+15
DAL2641+15
MEM2438+14
WAS1730+13
UTA2232+10

Biggest fallers vs last season

 
TeamLastEst.Change
LAL5342-11
LAC4232-10
SAS6153-8
CHA4436-8
CLE5244-8

Projections are estimates with wide error bars; injuries, trades and rookies will move them. In our four-season test the preseason projection missed final wins by about 8 on average. Refreshed after every game day once the season starts.

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