Analyst · Week 4
The stats model is the foundation. This layer reads the week's news and forecasts, reports only what the model is not already counting, and moves the number by a capped amount — every claim linked to its source, every claim graded after the final.
Is the news layer helping?
Since the layer went live, over 305 graded claims:
- The adjusted forecast has been worse than the stats model alone — net change in squared error (Brier) of +0.252, where negative is better.
- 146 of 305 claims pushed the number toward the actual result.
- It changed the final pick in 5 games, and those flips went 4–1.
This is the whole test. News can't be backtested the way the base model was (2010–25), so the layer earns its place only forward, and only if it lowers the error over many games — not on any one result. Its job is to move the number toward the truth, not to rescue a pick: when it cut a heavy home pick by 10 points and the team still lost, the move was correct (it lowered the error) even though the pick was wrong — the base model had simply started too far above the market. Picks where we disagree with the market's final price are our weaker spot (about 44% in the backtest, versus 68% when we agree) — they're flagged “we differ” on the picks table so you can watch them.
What we do with the news, step by step
This page is the news layer's public notebook. In plain terms:
- Before kickoff, every run pulls the feeds and attaches new items to the games they concern. Items published after a game has started are never read: in-game news is not a prediction input.
- The reader turns new items into claims: a type (QB change, key starter out, resting starters…), a team, a player, a direction, and a confidence.
- The filters decide, in the same run, whether a claim is applied or declined. Declined if it is below the confidence floor for its type, if the model already counts it (the player is on the injury report, the QB is already the named starter), or if it is the kind of story that has no place (offseason hires, turf, "limited in practice").
- Applied claims move the probability right then, by a fixed number of points for the type, scaled by confidence, capped. That adjusted number is the pick. "Model 74% → analyst 76%" on a game below means exactly that.
- After the final, every claim is graded, applied or declined: did it point the right way, and did it lower the error? Declined claims are graded as if they had been applied, so we learn whether the filter was right to say no.
- Once a month, with enough graded cases, the rules change for future weeks: a type that keeps hurting loses weight; a rejection reason that keeps "would have helped" gets loosened. Past picks are never touched. Every rule change is dated in the changelog.
A claim only affects the game it is attached to. It does not carry into next week's model: a starter who misses Week 2 is caught by the injury report by then, and the model counts him there.
How it works
Sources: public news feeds; the National Weather Service forecast at kickoff for outdoor stadiums; the nflverse injury report and named starters are what the model already counts. The reader (one language-model call per game, only when there is new news) returns typed claims about things not already counted. A fixed table turns each claim into points, scaled by the reader's confidence, capped per type and ±10 in total. Weather is logged at zero weight until a season of grading says otherwise.
| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
Scorecard by claim type
After each final: did the move go the right way, and did it lower the squared error (Brier)? Negative Brier change is good. Types that don't earn their weight get zeroed at season's end.
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 205 | 180 | 1.8 | 84/180 | +0.303 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 56 | 52 | 0.4 | 24/52 | +0.043 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 30 | 23 | 1.1 | 13/23 | +0.017 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 21 | 21 | 5.5 | 12/21 | -0.106 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 5/8 | +0.006 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 8 | 8 | 0.7 | 4/8 | -0.003 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| coaching change | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 3/3 | -0.028 |
| suspension | 4 | 4 | 1.9 | 1/4 | +0.014 |
| key starter returning | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 0/1 | +0.006 |
Shadow scorecard — what we declined
Rejected claims are kept at zero weight and graded as if applied. If a rejection reason keeps "helping", the rule is too strict; if "other" keeps hurting, it stays out. This is how the layer learns.
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key player out | 265 | 241 | 116/241 | +0.207 |
| retired: now on the injury report | key player out | 166 | 165 | 83/165 | +0.145 |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key player back | 113 | 104 | 61/104 | -0.118 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 64 | 61 | 29/61 | +0.016 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | QB change | 59 | 48 | 18/48 | +0.769 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 29 | 27 | 16/27 | -0.015 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | key player out | 27 | 25 | 15/25 | -0.004 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | QB change | 20 | 12 | 12/12 | -0.589 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 19 | 18 | 9/18 | +0.005 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out | key player out | 17 | 14 | 8/14 | -0.002 |
| soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) | key player back | 17 | 15 | 11/15 | -0.038 |
| already on the injury report | key player out | 16 | 16 | 7/16 | +0.100 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 16 | 13 | 7/13 | +0.017 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation | motivation | 15 | 14 | 6/14 | +0.010 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | suspension | 13 | 11 | 4/11 | +0.055 |
| confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out | key player out | 11 | 11 | 6/11 | -0.012 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 11 | 9 | 4/9 | +0.020 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | other | 10 | 9 | 7/9 | -0.018 |
| confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out | key player out | 9 | 7 | 1/7 | +0.037 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for other | other | 9 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.002 |
| about an earlier game, not this one | key player out | 8 | 5 | 4/5 | -0.032 |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching change | 8 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.027 |
| QB out: the model already uses the named starter | key player out | 6 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.011 |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out | key player out | 6 | 6 | 2/6 | +0.006 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out | key player out | 5 | 5 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | motivation | 5 | 5 | 1/5 | +0.039 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | travel | 5 | 5 | 3/5 | -0.010 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | turmoil | 5 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 5 | 5 | 5/5 | -0.088 |
| retired: schedule feed now names this QB | QB change | 5 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.007 |
| QB is already the named starter | QB change | 4 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.068 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 4 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 4 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.017 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | other | 4 | 4 | 1/4 | +0.004 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 3 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation | motivation | 3 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 3 | 3 | 3/3 | -0.016 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for QB change | QB change | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | -0.000 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.005 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for travel | travel | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.013 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | motivation | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.067 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.034 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.011 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.002 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for QB change | QB change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.015 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for motivation | motivation | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.009 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for travel | travel | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.005 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | suspension | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.003 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.001 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 0 | – | – |
Season: stats model 76–42, model + analyst 79–39; 98 games moved, 5 picks flipped (4 won).
PIT @ CLE Thu 8:15 PM
est. model 52% home → analyst 56% (+3.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 78.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Cloudy
· final 24–27
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback traded to Dallas Cowboys; ruled out for Thursday Night Football due to back injury | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting center ruled out for Thursday vs. Steelers | CLE | Elgton Jenkins | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | PIT | Gennings Dunker | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Won't play in Week 3 | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Traded to Cowboys before Week 4; no longer on Steelers roster | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RG suffers bone break | PIT | Spencer Anderson | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Browns offensive starter likely to miss Week 4 vs Steelers | CLE | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.012 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') OT seen in walking boot after Week 2 loss; status unclear for Week 3 | PIT | Troy Fautanu | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB Rico Dowdle misses practice Monday after missing Week 3 game | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 0.50 | +1.0 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out CB nursing injury after Week 3 win; status unclear for Week 4 | PIT | Jalen Ramsey | 0.45 | +0.9 | helped -0.009 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
IND @ WAS Sun 9:30 AM
est. model 47% home → analyst 50% (+2.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 63.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Rain Showers Likely
· final 30–13
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR ruled out with groin injury for London game | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker placed on IR with season-ending neck fracture suffered in Week 3 vs Seahawks | WAS | Leo Chenal | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR out for London game | IND | Alec Pearce | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.016 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: schedule feed now names this QB Jayden Daniels ruled out; Marcus Mariota confirmed to start vs. Colts | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.050 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Ruled out for Week 4 vs. Colts; will not play despite returning to limited practice | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 4 vs. Colts; will not play despite returning to practice | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out for Week 4 | WAS | Nick Cross | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Guard ruled out for Week 4 | WAS | Sam Cosmi | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB carted off on backboard with neck injury during Week 3 game vs Seahawks; status unclear for Week 4 | WAS | Leo Chenal | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kicker injured groin in pregame warmups Week 3; played through injury but status for Week 4 uncertain | IND | Spencer Shrader | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out QB traveling to London and expected to practice this week after elbow injury; playing prospects vs Colts uncertain but not ruled out | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 0.65 | +1.0 | hurt +0.009 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for QB change Jayden Daniels dislocated left elbow in Week 2, ruled out for Week 3; Mariota starting vs. Seahawks (not vs. Colts) | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 |
5 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
TEN @ BAL Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 86% home → analyst 89% (+3.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Areas Of Drizzle
· final 18–24
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve | TEN | Jackson Slater | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve | TEN | Fernando Carmona | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 4 vs. Titans; underwent procedure for broken finger | BAL | Trey Hendrickson | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Center placed on injured reserve with fractured fibula, out for extended period | BAL | Jovaughn Gwyn | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Center expected to miss extended time with injury from Week 3 game | BAL | Ethan Pocic | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back did not practice Wednesday; status unclear but practice absence in week of game | TEN | Tyjae Spears | 0.55 | +1.1 | helped -0.003 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back did not practice Wednesday; status unclear but practice absence in week of game | TEN | Tony Pollard | 0.55 | +1.1 | helped -0.003 |
4 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
NE @ BUF Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 74% home → analyst 78% (+4.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 14.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 29–26
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Veteran OL placed on injured reserve with thigh injury from Week 3 | NE | Greg Van Roten | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.028 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Benched in 4th quarter of Week 3 game vs Jaguars after 3 turnovers; backup took over | NE | Drake Maye | 0.85 | +5.1 | hurt +0.073 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Safety ruled out for Week 4 | NE | Brenden Schooler | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.028 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Defensive tackle ruled out for Week 4 | NE | Christian Barmore | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.028 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Cornerback ruled out for Week 4 | NE | Christian Gonzalez | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.028 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Suffered thigh injury in Week 3; offensive line usage affected | NE | Greg Van Roten | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Benched in fourth quarter of Week 3 loss to Jaguars after three turnovers; showing regression and turnover issues | NE | Drake Maye | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Week 3 game vs Chargers with injury; may need backup cornerback | BUF | Christian Benford | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end's son died; personal tragedy may affect player availability or focus | NE | Eli Raridon | 0.70 | +1.4 | hurt +0.021 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Returning from suspension, Bills must make roster room | BUF | Phidarian Mathis | 0.70 | +1.4 | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Defensive lineman returning from suspension, roster spot to be determined | BUF | Phidarian Mathis | 0.85 | +1.3 | hurt +0.019 |
6 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
NYJ @ CHI Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 77% home → analyst 67% (-9.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 67.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Sunny
· final 12–23
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Tyson Bagent expected to start Week 4 for Bears; Caleb Williams ruled out | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.75 | -4.5 | hurt +0.024 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Caleb Williams ruled out; Tyson Bagent expected to start instead of named starter Case Keenum | CHI | 0.75 | -4.5 | hurt +0.024 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Case Keenum will start at QB for Bears vs. Eagles (Caleb Williams out 3-4 weeks with Grade 2 hamstring strain); Tyson Bagent is backup | CHI | Case Keenum | 0.92 | -5.5 | hurt +0.031 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Caleb Williams recovering from hamstring injury; Bagent may start Sunday vs Jets instead of Case Keenum | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.65 | -3.9 | hurt +0.021 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Case Keenum named starter uncertain; Tyson Bagent may start vs Jets with Caleb Williams recovering from hamstring injury | CHI | 0.65 | -3.9 | hurt +0.021 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Offensive lineman out for Chicago | CHI | Braxton Jones | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Running back ruled out for Week 4 vs Bears | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Wide receiver ruled out for Week 4 vs Bears | NYJ | Adonai Mitchell | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Week-to-week with quad injury suffered in Week 3 loss to Lions | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback left Week 3 game with left leg injury, unable to return | CHI | Cam Lewis | 0.80 | -1.6 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Safety has really good chance of returning to Jets lineup for Week 4 game vs Bears | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.70 | -1.1 | hurt +0.005 |
JAX @ CIN Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 50% home → analyst 48% (-2.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 1.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 22–17
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB placed on IR (announced Sep 29) | CIN | Jalen Davis | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR Mitchell Tinsley being brought back to Bengals this week after being away | CIN | Mitchell Tinsley | 0.85 | +1.3 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Listed DNP in injury report; status unclear but practice participation suggests questionable rather than ruled out | CIN | Dalton Risner | 0.30 | -0.6 | helped -0.006 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
DAL @ HOU Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 59% home → analyst 62% (+3.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 80.0°F, wind 15.0 mph, Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
· final 34–30
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive lineman placed on injured reserve Wednesday | HOU | Mario Edwards | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive tackle placed on injured reserve Wednesday | DAL | Jonathan Bullard | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety placed on injured reserve Wednesday | DAL | Jalen Thompson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Linebacker ruled out for Week 4 vs Cowboys | HOU | Azeez Al-Shaair | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Linebacker ruled out for Week 4 vs Texans | DAL | DeMarvion Overshown | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Cornerback ruled out for Week 4 vs Texans | DAL | Cobie Durant | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DE listed as questionable for Sunday; status uncertain for game vs Cowboys | HOU | Jadeveon Clowney | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Traded from Steelers Wednesday; missed all of training camp, preseason, and first 3 games with back injury; uncertain availability for Sunday vs Texans | DAL | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Texans WR Nico Collins unavailable in Week 3; status for Week 4 vs Cowboys unclear | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out S returns to lineup after being out | DAL | Malik Hooker | 0.80 | -1.2 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Acquired via trade from Steelers on Oct 1; has chance to play Sunday after missing first 3 weeks | DAL | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.70 | -1.1 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Returns to Texans practice after injury absence | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.70 | +1.1 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out Did not participate (DNP) in Thursday practice | DAL | DeMarvion Overshown | 0.40 | +0.8 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out Did not participate (DNP) in Thursday practice | DAL | Shavon Revel | 0.40 | +0.8 | hurt +0.009 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
ARI @ NYG Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 60% home → analyst 60% (+0.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 65.0°F, wind 8.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers
· final 24–36
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Giants acquired J.J. McCarthy from Vikings in trade; Jaxson Dart ruled out for season | NYG | J.J. McCarthy | 0.75 | +4.5 | helped -0.034 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report LB Brian Burns tore ACL and meniscus, season-ending knee injury | NYG | Brian Burns | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Season-ending injury; Giants traded for J.J. McCarthy as replacement | NYG | Jaxson Dart | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.015 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for QB change Giants traded for QB J.J. McCarthy from Vikings; Jameis Winston named starter for this week but McCarthy acquired and in building phase | NYG | J.J. McCarthy | 0.30 | -1.8 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left tackle missed second straight practice as of Oct 1; status uncertain for Sunday | NYG | Andrew Thomas | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Outside linebacker did not practice this week with ankle injury; questionable to return status suggests game-time decision but practice absence is notable | NYG | Brian Burns | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out Listed as questionable with groin injury; practice status does not meet 'ruled out' threshold | ARI | Josh Sweat | 0.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
LA @ PHI Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 44% home → analyst 46% (+2.1 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers
· final 24–20
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Knee injury; no specific timeline but expected to miss multiple weeks | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Right tackle ruled out for Week 4 game vs Rams (inactive list) | PHI | Lane Johnson | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 4 vs Rams with hamstring injury | PHI | DeVonta Smith | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Placed on injured reserve, out for Sunday vs Eagles | LA | Terrance Ferguson | 0.99 | +2.0 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 4 vs Eagles | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.99 | +2.0 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Cornerback suffered dislocated shoulder in Week 3; may be back in October but out for Week 4 vs Eagles | LA | Jaylen Watson | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback suffered dislocated shoulder in Week 3; may return in October but status uncertain for Week 4 vs Eagles | LA | Jaylen Watson | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB remains out of practice Thursday with concussion; described as 'in danger of missing' Rams game | PHI | Zack Baun | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR remains out of practice Thursday with hamstring injury; described as 'legitimately questionable' for Rams game | PHI | DeVonta Smith | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Underwent concussion evaluation during Monday night loss to Bears; status for Sunday unclear pending protocol clearance | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Expected to play Sunday after missing two games with hip injury | LA | Puka Nacua | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end injured during Sunday's loss to Broncos; status unclear but reported as injured this week | LA | Terrance Ferguson | 0.60 | +1.2 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end injured during Sunday's loss to Broncos; status unclear but reported as injured this week | LA | Colby Parkinson | 0.60 | +1.2 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out Sore back, day-to-day status; missed practice Wednesday | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.35 | +0.7 | hurt +0.006 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
GB @ TB Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 44% home → analyst 35% (-9.1 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 87.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 17–14
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Baker Mayfield (starting QB) ruled out with dislocated right thumb; Jalon Daniels confirmed as starter | TB | 1.00 | -6.0 | helped -0.048 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Elevated from practice squad as backup QB with starter Baker Mayfield ruled out | TB | Easton Stick | 0.85 | -5.1 | helped -0.041 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on injured reserve for season-ending neck surgery | GB | Jayden Reed | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker not expected back until November; out for this game | GB | Micah Parsons | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Right tackle placed on injured reserve Monday | GB | Zach Bako-Bewele | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie defensive starter ruled out for Buccaneers vs Vikings | TB | Josiah Trotter | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Wide receiver placed on injured reserve | TB | Jalen McMillan | 0.90 | -1.8 | helped -0.015 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Undrafted rookie Jalen Daniels to start for Buccaneers; Baker Mayfield out minimum three weeks with thumb dislocation | TB | Jalen Daniels | 0.99 | -5.9 | helped -0.047 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Baker Mayfield out minimum 3 weeks with thumb dislocation; undrafted rookie Daniels to start vs. Green Bay | TB | Jalon Daniels | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.046 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Baker Mayfield out minimum 3 weeks with thumb dislocation; Jalen Daniels (rookie) expected to start | TB | 0.95 | -5.7 | helped -0.046 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Starting QB ruled out with dislocated right thumb | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Starting guard ruled out for Week 4 vs Tampa Bay | GB | Jacob Monk | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Starting guard ruled out for Week 4 vs Tampa Bay | GB | Aaron Banks | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report DL ruled out for significant time with groin injury (in addition to prior calf injury) | GB | Warren Brinson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Rookie defensive starter ruled out for Buccaneers vs Vikings | TB | Rueben Bain | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Defensive tackle to miss significant time with groin injury | GB | Warren Brinson | 0.90 | +1.8 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Dislocated thumb in Week 3 game vs Vikings; MRI scheduled to determine return timeline | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR had MRI on left knee after aggravating injury in Week 3; status unclear | TB | Jalen McMillan | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.011 |
MIA @ MIN Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 80% home → analyst 80% (+0.4 pts)
· final 10–15
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Tight end placed on IR | MIN | Josh Oliver | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back out for season with ACL tear | MIA | De'Von Achane | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out with ankle sprain for Week 4 game vs. Dolphins | MIN | Justin Jefferson | 0.99 | -2.0 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back injury mentioned in mailbag context; Dolphins signed Carlos Washington as replacement | MIA | De'Von Achane | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.005 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
KC @ LV Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 38% home → analyst 37% (-1.9 pts)
· final 30–27
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on IR | LV | Jack Bech | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR broke forearm in Week 3 win, headed to injured reserve | LV | Jack Bech | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting left tackle unavailable; Andy Reid has not provided return timeline as of Sept 29 | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DB set to make 2026 season debut Sunday | KC | Chamarri Conner | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.010 |
LAC @ SEA Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 76% home → analyst 77% (+1.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 3.0 mph, Sunny
· final 23–30
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety ruled inactive for Week 4 vs. Chargers | SEA | Ty Okada | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety ruled inactive for Week 4 vs. Seahawks | LAC | Derwin James | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve Saturday | LAC | Trey Pipkins III | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting safety out against Commanders; practice squad replacement called up | SEA | Julian Love | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Sat out Thursday practice with foot injury; status unclear for Sunday | LAC | Ladd McConkey | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.006 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Sam Darnold cleared and set to start for Seahawks in Week 3 after glute/hip injury; Drew Lock was the named starter | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.85 | +5.1 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report RB will miss Sunday's game vs. Chargers | SEA | Jadarian Price | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB did not practice Thursday with chest injury; downgraded from limited to out of practice | SEA | Jadarian Price | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Safety returns to Seahawks secondary after absence | SEA | Julian Love | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Designated to return to practice after ACL tear; eligible for Week 4 | SEA | Zach Charbonnet | 0.70 | +1.1 | helped -0.005 |
DEN @ SF Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 63% home → analyst 63% (+0.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 87.0°F, wind 3.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 14–24
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out with rib injury suffered vs Cardinals on Sep 27 | SF | Mike Evans | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie RB placed on IR with high ankle sprain | DEN | Jonah Coleman | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Defensive end remains out with calf injury; return date unclear for Week 4 vs Broncos | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Defensive end out for Sunday with calf injury, expected to miss more time | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left game on cart vs Cardinals Week 3; status unclear for Week 4 | SF | Trent Williams | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.012 |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change Sean Payton handed away playcalling duties | DEN | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.009 | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DE elevated to active roster for Sunday's game; 49ers debut | SF | Matt Judon | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR signed to active roster from practice squad Thursday | SF | Brandin Cooks | 0.80 | +1.2 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') 49ers WR injuries mentioned; Dante Pettis signed to practice squad due to WR depth issues | SF | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.009 | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DE practice window opened this week; eligible to make season debut in Week 5 | SF | Mykel Williams | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Won't practice Wednesday | SF | Dre Greenlaw | 0.55 | -1.1 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out WR considered day-to-day with rib injury after leaving Sunday's game on cart; status unclear for Week 4 | SF | Mike Evans | 0.45 | -0.9 | hurt +0.007 |
6 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
DET @ CAR Sun 8:20 PM
est. model 38% home → analyst 34% (-3.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 0.0 mph, Cloudy
· final 26–32
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting CB placed on IR (groin injury), will miss extended time | CAR | Mike Jackson | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting CB placed on IR (quad injury), will miss extended time | CAR | Jaycee Horn | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out for Week 4 | CAR | Xavier Legette | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting offensive lineman out at least Week 4 with UCL injury | CAR | Damien Lewis | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.024 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report G ruled out at least Week 4 with UCL injury | CAR | Damien Lewis | 0.92 | -1.8 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting QB sore with lower body injury, undergoing tests this week | CAR | Bryce Young | 0.70 | -1.4 | hurt +0.017 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
ATL @ NO Mon 8:15 PM
est. model 48% home → analyst 44% (-4.0 pts)
· final 45–24
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report TE ruled out / inactive for Monday Night Football | NO | Noah Fant | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB placed on injured reserve with hamstring injury | NO | Travis Etienne Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie WR still weeks away from return; will not play Monday | NO | Jordyn Tyson | 0.90 | -1.8 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LB ruled out for Monday night game | NO | Kaden Elliss | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report LB ruled out for Monday night game | NO | Anfernee Jennings | 0.90 | -1.8 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB left Week 3 game vs Raiders with hamstring injury; status for Week 4 unclear but injury occurred within 7 days | NO | Travis Etienne | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.012 |
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