Analyst · Week 5
The stats model is the foundation. This layer reads the week's news and forecasts, reports only what the model is not already counting, and moves the number by a capped amount — every claim linked to its source, every claim graded after the final.
Is the news layer helping?
Since the layer went live, over 305 graded claims:
- The adjusted forecast has been worse than the stats model alone — net change in squared error (Brier) of +0.252, where negative is better.
- 146 of 305 claims pushed the number toward the actual result.
- It changed the final pick in 5 games, and those flips went 4–1.
This is the whole test. News can't be backtested the way the base model was (2010–25), so the layer earns its place only forward, and only if it lowers the error over many games — not on any one result. Its job is to move the number toward the truth, not to rescue a pick: when it cut a heavy home pick by 10 points and the team still lost, the move was correct (it lowered the error) even though the pick was wrong — the base model had simply started too far above the market. Picks where we disagree with the market's final price are our weaker spot (about 44% in the backtest, versus 68% when we agree) — they're flagged “we differ” on the picks table so you can watch them.
What we do with the news, step by step
This page is the news layer's public notebook. In plain terms:
- Before kickoff, every run pulls the feeds and attaches new items to the games they concern. Items published after a game has started are never read: in-game news is not a prediction input.
- The reader turns new items into claims: a type (QB change, key starter out, resting starters…), a team, a player, a direction, and a confidence.
- The filters decide, in the same run, whether a claim is applied or declined. Declined if it is below the confidence floor for its type, if the model already counts it (the player is on the injury report, the QB is already the named starter), or if it is the kind of story that has no place (offseason hires, turf, "limited in practice").
- Applied claims move the probability right then, by a fixed number of points for the type, scaled by confidence, capped. That adjusted number is the pick. "Model 74% → analyst 76%" on a game below means exactly that.
- After the final, every claim is graded, applied or declined: did it point the right way, and did it lower the error? Declined claims are graded as if they had been applied, so we learn whether the filter was right to say no.
- Once a month, with enough graded cases, the rules change for future weeks: a type that keeps hurting loses weight; a rejection reason that keeps "would have helped" gets loosened. Past picks are never touched. Every rule change is dated in the changelog.
A claim only affects the game it is attached to. It does not carry into next week's model: a starter who misses Week 2 is caught by the injury report by then, and the model counts him there.
How it works
Sources: public news feeds; the National Weather Service forecast at kickoff for outdoor stadiums; the nflverse injury report and named starters are what the model already counts. The reader (one language-model call per game, only when there is new news) returns typed claims about things not already counted. A fixed table turns each claim into points, scaled by the reader's confidence, capped per type and ±10 in total. Weather is logged at zero weight until a season of grading says otherwise.
| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
Scorecard by claim type
After each final: did the move go the right way, and did it lower the squared error (Brier)? Negative Brier change is good. Types that don't earn their weight get zeroed at season's end.
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 205 | 180 | 1.8 | 84/180 | +0.303 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 56 | 52 | 0.4 | 24/52 | +0.043 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 30 | 23 | 1.1 | 13/23 | +0.017 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 21 | 21 | 5.5 | 12/21 | -0.106 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 5/8 | +0.006 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 8 | 8 | 0.7 | 4/8 | -0.003 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| coaching change | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 3/3 | -0.028 |
| suspension | 4 | 4 | 1.9 | 1/4 | +0.014 |
| key starter returning | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 0/1 | +0.006 |
Shadow scorecard — what we declined
Rejected claims are kept at zero weight and graded as if applied. If a rejection reason keeps "helping", the rule is too strict; if "other" keeps hurting, it stays out. This is how the layer learns.
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key player out | 265 | 241 | 116/241 | +0.207 |
| retired: now on the injury report | key player out | 166 | 165 | 83/165 | +0.145 |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key player back | 113 | 104 | 61/104 | -0.118 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 64 | 61 | 29/61 | +0.016 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | QB change | 59 | 48 | 18/48 | +0.769 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 29 | 27 | 16/27 | -0.015 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | key player out | 27 | 25 | 15/25 | -0.004 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | QB change | 20 | 12 | 12/12 | -0.589 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 19 | 18 | 9/18 | +0.005 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out | key player out | 17 | 14 | 8/14 | -0.002 |
| soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) | key player back | 17 | 15 | 11/15 | -0.038 |
| already on the injury report | key player out | 16 | 16 | 7/16 | +0.100 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 16 | 13 | 7/13 | +0.017 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation | motivation | 15 | 14 | 6/14 | +0.010 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | suspension | 13 | 11 | 4/11 | +0.055 |
| confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out | key player out | 11 | 11 | 6/11 | -0.012 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 11 | 9 | 4/9 | +0.020 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | other | 10 | 9 | 7/9 | -0.018 |
| confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out | key player out | 9 | 7 | 1/7 | +0.037 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for other | other | 9 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.002 |
| about an earlier game, not this one | key player out | 8 | 5 | 4/5 | -0.032 |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching change | 8 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.027 |
| QB out: the model already uses the named starter | key player out | 6 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.011 |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out | key player out | 6 | 6 | 2/6 | +0.006 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out | key player out | 5 | 5 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | motivation | 5 | 5 | 1/5 | +0.039 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | travel | 5 | 5 | 3/5 | -0.010 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | turmoil | 5 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 5 | 5 | 5/5 | -0.088 |
| retired: schedule feed now names this QB | QB change | 5 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.007 |
| QB is already the named starter | QB change | 4 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.068 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 4 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 4 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.017 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | other | 4 | 4 | 1/4 | +0.004 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 3 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation | motivation | 3 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 3 | 3 | 3/3 | -0.016 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for QB change | QB change | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | -0.000 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.005 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for travel | travel | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.013 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | motivation | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.067 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.034 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.011 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.002 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for QB change | QB change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.015 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for motivation | motivation | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.009 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for travel | travel | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.005 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | suspension | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.003 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.001 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 0 | – | – |
Season: stats model 76–42, model + analyst 79–39; 98 games moved, 5 picks flipped (4 won).
TB @ DAL Thu 8:15 PM
est. model 73% home → analyst 74% (+0.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 85.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Clear
· final 24–16
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: QB is already the named starter Undrafted rookie starting for injured Baker Mayfield (right thumb injury ruled out Week 4) | TB | Jalon Daniels | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.081 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out 2-4 weeks with rib fracture suffered in Week 4 | TB | Antoine Winfield Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.028 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Injured; Jalon Daniels making first career start in Week 4 | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.028 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Expected to miss 3-6 weeks with dislocated right thumb; Jalon Daniels starting | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.028 |
4 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
PHI @ JAX Sun 9:30 AM
est. model 77% home → analyst 81% (+4.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 75.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
· final 17–19
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB placed on IR after core muscle surgery | PHI | Tank Bigsby | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Right tackle inactive Week 4 for personal reasons; status murky for upcoming game | PHI | Lane Johnson | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out with hamstring injury suffered vs. Rams in Week 4 | PHI | Saquon Barkley | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR Dontayvion Wicks injured hamstring, out of practice Thursday | PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left guard entered concussion protocol on Monday; status unclear for Week 5 | PHI | Cam Jurgens | 0.70 | +1.4 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Hamstring injury status uncertain for Week 5 vs Jaguars; coach said more answers Wednesday | PHI | Saquon Barkley | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Scratched Week 4 due to personal matter; availability for Week 5 vs Jaguars unknown | PHI | Lane Johnson | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.006 |
4 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CIN @ MIA Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 33% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 90.0°F, wind 9.0 mph, Sunny
· final 31–24
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Declared out after suffering concussion vs. Jaguars on Oct 4 | CIN | Ja'Marr Chase | 0.99 | +2.0 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Sunday's loss with an adductor injury; status unclear for Week 5 | CIN | Tee Higgins | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Dolphins activate DE Kenneth Grant from injured reserve for 2026 debut | MIA | Kenneth Grant | 0.85 | +1.3 | hurt +0.009 |
LV @ NE Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 66% home → analyst 67% (+1.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 60.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Cloudy
· final 17–45
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back ruled out for Week 5 vs. Patriots (was questionable, downgraded through practice week) | LV | Ashton Jeanty | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Rookie cornerback ruled out for Week 4 vs Bills | NE | Christian Gonzalez | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Defensive lineman ruled out for Week 4 vs Bills | NE | Christian Barmore | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Raiders starting guard out for Week 4 vs Chiefs | LV | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.011 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end dealing with personal tragedy (son's death); likely unavailable Week 4 | NE | Eli Raridon | 0.70 | -1.4 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out Running back questionable for Sunday vs. Patriots; downgraded to limited practice Thursday | LV | Ashton Jeanty | 0.45 | +0.9 | helped -0.006 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
MIN @ NO Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 37% home → analyst 39% (+1.9 pts)
· final 23–13
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for Week 5 vs Vikings | NO | Nathan Shepherd | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for Week 5 vs Vikings | NO | Vernon Broughton | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for Week 5 vs Saints | MIN | Odell Beckham Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for Week 5 vs Saints | MIN | Jordan Addison | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Torn meniscus, ruled out | MIN | Donovan Jackson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Torn meniscus, out | MIN | Donovan Jackson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') In concussion protocol, status unclear for Week 5 | MIN | Christian Darrisaw | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Suffered knee injury in Week 4 game vs Falcons; status for Week 5 unclear but injury reported | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Elevated from practice squad; could make debut Sunday | MIN | Odell Beckham Jr. | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out Wide receiver questionable for Sunday; sat out Wednesday practice, limited Thursday | MIN | Jordan Addison | 0.45 | +0.9 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out Wide receiver questionable for Sunday; limited practice participation | MIN | Justin Jefferson | 0.40 | +0.8 | hurt +0.006 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CLE @ NYJ Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 43% home → analyst 41% (-2.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 63.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Rain
· final 12–17
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive end out for season with torn pectoral suffered in Week 4 loss to Bears | NYJ | Braiden McGregor | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Defensive tackle ruled out for a few weeks with MCL sprain and ankle sprain suffered vs. Steelers | CLE | Mason Graham | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Did not play against Chicago Bears due to quad injury sustained in Week 3 | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR activated from injured reserve | NYJ | Tim Patrick | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Safety returned from injury, recorded 16 tackles and interception vs Bears | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.014 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
IND @ PIT Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 56% home → analyst 55% (-0.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 60.0°F, wind 12.0 mph, Rain Showers
· final 22–34
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive lineman placed on injured reserve for at least four games | PIT | Derrick Harmon | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting defensive end will be out for a while | IND | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.010 | |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Colts played in London last week; short turnaround to Pittsburgh road game adds fatigue disadvantage | IND | 0.75 | +0.8 | helped -0.007 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report CB ruled out for multiple weeks | PIT | Jamel Dean | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback to miss multiple weeks | PIT | Jamel Dean | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.016 |
4 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
HOU @ TEN Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 30% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 26–3
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Linebacker ruled out for Week 4 vs. Cowboys | HOU | Azeez Al-Shaair | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change Head coach DeMeco Ryans took over defensive play-calling duties from coordinator Matt Burke on Oct 7 | HOU | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.008 | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Practice window opened; getting closer to return from injury | HOU | Tank Dell | 0.60 | -0.9 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Cam Ward struggled in Week 4 loss to Ravens; ankle injury concern from game vs. Baltimore | TEN | Cam Ward | 0.30 | -0.6 | helped -0.004 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
NYG @ WAS Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 49% home → analyst 54% (+4.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 67.0°F, wind 14.0 mph, Rain Showers
· final 27–27
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR; fractured and dislocated ankle, done for season | WAS | Jaylin Lane | 0.95 | -1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with foot injury; out for at least 4 weeks | NYG | Braxton Berrios | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Out for rest of regular season with knee injury | NYG | Brian Burns | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Out for rest of regular season with knee injury | NYG | Jaxson Dart | 0.95 | +1.9 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jayden Daniels already out Week 4; Marcus Mariota injured knee in London game, third-string Athan Kaliakmanis now in for Commanders | WAS | 0.95 | -5.7 | after the final | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jayden Daniels ruled out; Marcus Mariota confirmed to start vs. Colts in London Week 4 | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.95 | -5.7 | after the final |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Dan Quinn says goal is to have Daniels start vs Giants; plan for full practice this week; hope for Week 5 return if not ready | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 0.75 | +4.5 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') MCL injury to right knee, will not return vs Colts in Week 4 | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.95 | -1.9 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Fractured, dislocated ankle; severity confirmed | WAS | Jaylin Lane | 0.90 | -1.8 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Out for Commanders in London game vs Colts Week 4 | WAS | Terry McLaurin | 0.90 | -1.8 | after the final |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out Week 4 with right knee MCL injury; status for Giants game uncertain | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.85 | -1.7 | after the final |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CHI @ GB Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 47% home → analyst 45% (-1.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 72.0°F, wind 13.0 mph, Sunny
· final 7–31
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker tore Achilles, out for season | GB | Edgerrin Cooper | 0.99 | -2.0 | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Left tackle placed on injured reserve | CHI | Braxton Jones | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report DT ruled out; groin injury will cause him to miss significant time | GB | Warren Brinson | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.019 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Bagent expected to start Week 4 vs Jets; Case Keenum moves to backup | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.85 | +5.1 | helped -0.052 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Linebacker tore Achilles in Week 4, season over | GB | Edgerrin Cooper | 0.99 | -2.0 | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out LB activated from PUP list, eligible to play Week 5 | CHI | Noah Sewell | 0.90 | -1.4 | hurt +0.015 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
DEN @ LAC Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 40% home → analyst 36% (-3.6 pts)
· final 23–17
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR ruled out with foot injury suffered vs. Seahawks | LAC | Ladd McConkey | 0.92 | -1.8 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rashawn Slater placed on injured reserve after ankle surgery | LAC | Rashawn Slater | 0.90 | -1.8 | helped -0.014 |
| coaching change Sean Payton takes over play-calling duties from Davis Webb | DEN | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.012 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Wide receiver expected to miss time with sprained ankle | DEN | Pat Bryant | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Trey Lance placed on injured reserve | LAC | Trey Lance | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report All-Pro CB ruled out with non-contact ankle injury suffered vs. 49ers | DEN | Patrick Surtain II | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Cornerback ruled out with hamstring injury suffered vs. Seahawks | LAC | Donte Jackson | 0.92 | -1.8 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Left guard ruled out with concussion suffered vs. Seahawks | LAC | Trevor Penning | 0.92 | -1.8 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Right tackle ruled out with neck injury suffered vs. Seahawks | LAC | Joe Alt | 0.92 | -1.8 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report CB ruled out with injured ribs | DEN | Riley Moss | 0.90 | +1.8 | hurt +0.015 |
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Sean Payton resumes offensive play-calling duties from Davis Webb, effective this week | DEN | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.013 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver suffered foot injury in Week 4 vs. Seahawks | LAC | Ladd McConkey | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback suffered hamstring injury in Week 4 vs. Seahawks | LAC | Donte Jackson | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left guard suffered concussion in Week 4 vs. Seahawks | LAC | Trevor Penning | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Right tackle suffered neck injury in Week 4 vs. Seahawks | LAC | Joe Alt | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left tackle suffered ankle injury in Week 4 vs. Seahawks | LAC | Rashawn Slater | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback suffered non-contact ankle injury in Week 4 vs. 49ers; avoided long-term injury but status unclear for Week 5 | DEN | Pat Surtain II | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR carted off in third quarter vs 49ers; status for Chargers game unclear but injury occurred 10/4 | DEN | Pat Bryant | 0.70 | +1.4 | hurt +0.011 |
DET @ ARI Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 31% home → analyst 27% (-3.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 82.0°F, wind 20.0 mph, Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
· final 45–21
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR inactive vs. Lions; Cardinals finalizing trade, player informed of decision | ARI | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Left tackle out for season with torn left biceps | ARI | Paris Johnson | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) wind 20 mph at kickoff (Chance Showers And Thunderstorms) | ARI | 1.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 | |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB received major fine; suspension possible if repeated three times | DET | Jack Campbell | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.010 |
SF @ SEA Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 52% home → analyst 49% (-3.2 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 56.0°F, wind 9.0 mph, Sunny
· final 32–29
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve with chest injury; will miss at least four games | SEA | Jadarian Price | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Running back ruled out versus 49ers | SEA | Zach Charbonnet | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back will not have for game vs 49ers | SEA | Zach Charbonnet | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.017 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Fined twice for actions in Chargers game; one fine carries significance toward automatic suspension | SEA | Nick Emmanwori | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety fined twice in Chargers game; one fine carries significance toward automatic suspension | SEA | Nick Emmanwori | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Fullback suffered knee injury in Week 4 vs Broncos; status for Week 5 unclear but injury occurred this week | SF | Kyle Juszczyk | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out S active after hamstring injury, Seahawks secondary at full strength for first time this season | SEA | Ty Okada | 0.85 | +1.3 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out TE active despite illness | SF | George Kittle | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Activated from reserve/physically unable to perform list; making 2026 debut Sunday | SF | Mykel Williams | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Signed to active roster after practice squad debut last week; now permanent roster addition | SEA | Trevon Diggs | 0.80 | +1.2 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Star defensive lineman exited Week 4 vs Chargers with ankle injury; believed to have avoided serious injury but status uncertain | SEA | Leonard Williams | 0.55 | -1.1 | helped -0.011 |
5 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
BAL @ ATL Sun 8:20 PM
est. model 68% home → analyst 68% (-0.2 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Partly Cloudy
· final 30–23
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Left tackle ruled out with groin injury during Week 4 game vs Saints; will not return | ATL | Jake Matthews | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.026 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RG ruled out; Emery Jones to start at right guard | BAL | Andrew Vorhees | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.023 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Lamar Jackson suffered ankle injury in Week 4 vs Titans, left in boot, day-to-day status; Tyler Huntley took over second half | BAL | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.076 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report LB ruled out for Week 5 vs Falcons | BAL | Trey Hendrickson | 1.00 | +2.0 | hurt +0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Center ruled out for Week 5; expected ready Week 6 after trade acquisition | BAL | Cam Jurgens | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.026 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ankle injury sustained vs Titans on 10/4; day-to-day status but not ruled out for Week 5 vs Falcons | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out Ankle injury sustained vs Titans on 10/4; questionable to return status reported but no ruling out for next game yet | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.35 | +0.7 | hurt +0.009 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
BUF @ LA Mon 8:15 PM
est. model 58% home → analyst 62% (+4.0 pts)
· final 37–34
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB inactive for Monday Night Football vs Rams | BUF | Dee Alford | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR inactive for Monday Night Football vs Rams | BUF | DJ Moore | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rams DE unlikely to return to practice this week; not expected to play Monday | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rams coach Sean McVay says he doesn't anticipate Myles Garrett practicing this week after being eligible to return from injured reserve; likely will not return to practice | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Rams DT expects to play Monday vs Bills after missing Eagles game with back injury; reports no setbacks | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.90 | +1.4 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Has a 'pre-hernia' condition; missed two games earlier with hip/groin issues | LA | Puka Nacua | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Shoulder injury sustained vs. Patriots Week 4; not believed to be long-term but status unclear for Week 5 | BUF | DJ Moore | 0.60 | +1.2 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Bills CB on track to return; participated in second straight practice session | BUF | Christian Benford | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.013 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
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