Analyst · Week 3
The stats model is the foundation. This layer reads the week's news and forecasts, reports only what the model is not already counting, and moves the number by a capped amount — every claim linked to its source, every claim graded after the final.
Is the news layer helping?
Since the layer went live, over 305 graded claims:
- The adjusted forecast has been worse than the stats model alone — net change in squared error (Brier) of +0.252, where negative is better.
- 146 of 305 claims pushed the number toward the actual result.
- It changed the final pick in 5 games, and those flips went 4–1.
This is the whole test. News can't be backtested the way the base model was (2010–25), so the layer earns its place only forward, and only if it lowers the error over many games — not on any one result. Its job is to move the number toward the truth, not to rescue a pick: when it cut a heavy home pick by 10 points and the team still lost, the move was correct (it lowered the error) even though the pick was wrong — the base model had simply started too far above the market. Picks where we disagree with the market's final price are our weaker spot (about 44% in the backtest, versus 68% when we agree) — they're flagged “we differ” on the picks table so you can watch them.
What we do with the news, step by step
This page is the news layer's public notebook. In plain terms:
- Before kickoff, every run pulls the feeds and attaches new items to the games they concern. Items published after a game has started are never read: in-game news is not a prediction input.
- The reader turns new items into claims: a type (QB change, key starter out, resting starters…), a team, a player, a direction, and a confidence.
- The filters decide, in the same run, whether a claim is applied or declined. Declined if it is below the confidence floor for its type, if the model already counts it (the player is on the injury report, the QB is already the named starter), or if it is the kind of story that has no place (offseason hires, turf, "limited in practice").
- Applied claims move the probability right then, by a fixed number of points for the type, scaled by confidence, capped. That adjusted number is the pick. "Model 74% → analyst 76%" on a game below means exactly that.
- After the final, every claim is graded, applied or declined: did it point the right way, and did it lower the error? Declined claims are graded as if they had been applied, so we learn whether the filter was right to say no.
- Once a month, with enough graded cases, the rules change for future weeks: a type that keeps hurting loses weight; a rejection reason that keeps "would have helped" gets loosened. Past picks are never touched. Every rule change is dated in the changelog.
A claim only affects the game it is attached to. It does not carry into next week's model: a starter who misses Week 2 is caught by the injury report by then, and the model counts him there.
How it works
Sources: public news feeds; the National Weather Service forecast at kickoff for outdoor stadiums; the nflverse injury report and named starters are what the model already counts. The reader (one language-model call per game, only when there is new news) returns typed claims about things not already counted. A fixed table turns each claim into points, scaled by the reader's confidence, capped per type and ±10 in total. Weather is logged at zero weight until a season of grading says otherwise.
| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
Scorecard by claim type
After each final: did the move go the right way, and did it lower the squared error (Brier)? Negative Brier change is good. Types that don't earn their weight get zeroed at season's end.
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 205 | 180 | 1.8 | 84/180 | +0.303 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 56 | 52 | 0.4 | 24/52 | +0.043 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 30 | 23 | 1.1 | 13/23 | +0.017 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 21 | 21 | 5.5 | 12/21 | -0.106 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 5/8 | +0.006 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 8 | 8 | 0.7 | 4/8 | -0.003 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| coaching change | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 3/3 | -0.028 |
| suspension | 4 | 4 | 1.9 | 1/4 | +0.014 |
| key starter returning | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 0/1 | +0.006 |
Shadow scorecard — what we declined
Rejected claims are kept at zero weight and graded as if applied. If a rejection reason keeps "helping", the rule is too strict; if "other" keeps hurting, it stays out. This is how the layer learns.
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key player out | 265 | 241 | 116/241 | +0.207 |
| retired: now on the injury report | key player out | 166 | 165 | 83/165 | +0.145 |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key player back | 113 | 104 | 61/104 | -0.118 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 64 | 61 | 29/61 | +0.016 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | QB change | 59 | 48 | 18/48 | +0.769 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 29 | 27 | 16/27 | -0.015 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | key player out | 27 | 25 | 15/25 | -0.004 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | QB change | 20 | 12 | 12/12 | -0.589 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 19 | 18 | 9/18 | +0.005 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out | key player out | 17 | 14 | 8/14 | -0.002 |
| soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) | key player back | 17 | 15 | 11/15 | -0.038 |
| already on the injury report | key player out | 16 | 16 | 7/16 | +0.100 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 16 | 13 | 7/13 | +0.017 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation | motivation | 15 | 14 | 6/14 | +0.010 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | suspension | 13 | 11 | 4/11 | +0.055 |
| confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out | key player out | 11 | 11 | 6/11 | -0.012 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 11 | 9 | 4/9 | +0.020 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | other | 10 | 9 | 7/9 | -0.018 |
| confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out | key player out | 9 | 7 | 1/7 | +0.037 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for other | other | 9 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.002 |
| about an earlier game, not this one | key player out | 8 | 5 | 4/5 | -0.032 |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching change | 8 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.027 |
| QB out: the model already uses the named starter | key player out | 6 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.011 |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out | key player out | 6 | 6 | 2/6 | +0.006 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out | key player out | 5 | 5 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | motivation | 5 | 5 | 1/5 | +0.039 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | travel | 5 | 5 | 3/5 | -0.010 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | turmoil | 5 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 5 | 5 | 5/5 | -0.088 |
| retired: schedule feed now names this QB | QB change | 5 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.007 |
| QB is already the named starter | QB change | 4 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.068 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 4 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 4 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.017 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | other | 4 | 4 | 1/4 | +0.004 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 3 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation | motivation | 3 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 3 | 3 | 3/3 | -0.016 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for QB change | QB change | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | -0.000 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.005 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for travel | travel | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.013 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | motivation | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.067 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.034 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.011 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.002 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for QB change | QB change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.015 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for motivation | motivation | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.009 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for travel | travel | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.005 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | suspension | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.003 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.001 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 0 | – | – |
Season: stats model 76–42, model + analyst 79–39; 98 games moved, 5 picks flipped (4 won).
ATL @ GB Thu 8:15 PM
est. model 73% home → analyst 76% (+3.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Partly Cloudy
· final 35–14
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback placed on IR ahead of Week 3 | ATL | A.J. Terrell | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report DL Da'Shawn Hand placed on IR with season-ending quad injury from Week 1 | ATL | Da'Shawn Hand | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.027 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tua Tagovailoa listed as doubtful for Week 2 vs Panthers; Cooper Rush starting instead | ATL | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.080 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cooper Rush to start for Falcons vs Panthers Week 2; Tua Tagovailoa doubtful with oblique injury | ATL | Cooper Rush | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.080 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Falcons QB situation unsettled; Cooper Rush and Michael Penix Jr. splitting reps Wednesday, starter not named for Week 2 vs Packers | ATL | 0.75 | +4.5 | hurt +0.064 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Could debut for Falcons on Thursday night; Stefanski said timing of decision unclear after 34-3 loss to Panthers | ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 0.65 | -3.9 | helped -0.057 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Left guard ruled out vs. Falcons | GB | Aaron Banks | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.029 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Right tackle out for season with torn patellar tendon | GB | Zach Bako-Bewele | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.029 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tore patellar tendon vs. Jets in Week 2 | GB | Zach Bako-Bewele | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.028 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR remains in New Jersey being evaluated after back injury sustained in Week 2 OT win; status unclear for Thursday | GB | Jayden Reed | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerstone cornerback dealing with groin issue heading into Thursday night game | ATL | A.J. Terrell | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out of Jets game Week 2; status for Thursday vs Falcons unclear | GB | Jayden Reed | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DL passed concussion protocol and will play Week 3 vs Falcons | GB | Javon Hargrave | 0.85 | +1.3 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out CB making 2026 debut tonight after being unavailable to start season | ATL | Billy Bowman | 0.70 | -1.1 | helped -0.015 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
LAC @ BUF Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 82% home → analyst 85% (+3.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 12.0 mph, Partly Sunny
· final 16–24
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Tight end placed on injured reserve | LAC | David Njoku | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report DB placed on IR | BUF | Jordan Hancock | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report OL ruled out for Week 3 vs Bills | LAC | Kayode Awosika | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out for Week 3 vs Bills | LAC | Brenen Thompson | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Tight end placed on injured reserve | LAC | Charlie Kolar | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report DT underwent appendectomy, out for game | BUF | T.J. Sanders | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') AC joint shoulder injury suffered in Week 2 vs Lions; status for Week 3 vs Chargers in doubt | BUF | D.J. Moore | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DT underwent appendectomy; status for Week 3 unclear | BUF | T.J. Sanders | 0.70 | -1.4 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Added to injury report as questionable for Sunday; backup QB status uncertain | LAC | Trey Lance | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.004 |
9 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CAR @ CLE Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 54% home → analyst 57% (+3.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 67.0°F, wind 12.0 mph, Sunny
· final 18–21
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB placed on IR with core muscle injury, out at least 6 weeks | CAR | Jonathon Brooks | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.017 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Browns plan to re-evaluate QB situation after Week 2, opening door for potential Sanders start; Watson had shaky Week 2 performance | CLE | Shedeur Sanders | 0.65 | -3.9 | hurt +0.037 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Linebacker ruled out for Week 3 | CAR | Devin Lloyd | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB aggravated groin injury in Week 2, week-to-week status | CAR | Jonathon Brooks | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.013 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
NYJ @ DET Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 81% home → analyst 84% (+3.8 pts)
· final 24–31
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR underwent season-ending surgery | NYJ | Arian Smith | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report DL placed on injured reserve this week after core muscle surgery; expected back this season | NYJ | David Onyemata | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | DET | Avonte Maddox | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie WR placed on injured reserve, will miss at least four games with ankle injury from Week 1 | NYJ | Omar Cooper Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out for Week 2 vs. Packers | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety will not return to practice this week | DET | Kerby Joseph | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety will not return to practice this week | DET | Brian Branch | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') TE week-to-week with thumb injury; status uncertain for Week 3 | NYJ | Mason Taylor | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out WR added to injury report as limited participant; status uncertain for Week 3 | NYJ | Adonai Mitchell | 0.45 | +0.9 | helped -0.003 |
HOU @ IND Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 49% home → analyst 48% (-1.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Sunny
· final 17–19
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR to make roster room for Darius Slayton signing | IND | Micheal Clemons | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Placed on injured reserve after aggravating surgically repaired left heel; no timetable for return | IND | Alec Pierce | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs. Bengals with hamstring injury suffered in Wednesday practice | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.019 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR faces minimum three-game suspension after arrest; blood-alcohol level nearly three times legal limit | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Misses practice Thursday; expected to be out again this weekend | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR signed to reunite with QB Daniel Jones after Alec Pierce injury | IND | Darius Slayton | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) OT returns to practice Thursday after missing time | HOU | Trent Brown | 0.75 | -1.1 | hurt +0.012 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
NE @ JAX Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 58% home → analyst 62% (+4.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 82.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 6–35
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety placed on injured reserve | NE | Dell Pettus | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Right guard placed on injured reserve with ankle fracture | NE | Mike Onwenu | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety out for Week 3 | NE | Craig Woodson | 0.90 | +1.8 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Linebacker ruled out for Week 3 | NE | Dre'Mont Jones | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Guard suffered broken ankle in Week 2 game vs. Steelers (Sep 20) | NE | Mike Onwenu | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety injured; Patriots exploring free agency replacements | NE | Dell Pettus | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety injured; Patriots exploring free agency replacements | NE | Craig Woodson | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Linebacker out of practice Thursday; defensive starter sidelined | NE | Dre'Mont Jones | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Joins New England's sidelined group per Thursday injury report | NE | Eli Raridon | 0.70 | +1.4 | helped -0.011 |
KC @ MIA Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 40% home → analyst 40% (-0.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 83.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Sunny
· final 24–10
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out for Week 3 | MIA | Caleb Douglas | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LT ruled out; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson to start at left tackle | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left tackle (2025 1st-round pick) week-to-week with back injury; missed Week 1 | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kicker struggling; Dolphins bringing in kickers for tryouts ahead of Week 3 | MIA | Riley Patterson | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver departed Week 2 game with heel injury; availability for Week 3 unclear | MIA | Alec Pierce | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.010 |
4 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
TEN @ NYG Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 69% home → analyst 59% (-9.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 63.0°F, wind 20.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers
· final 7–12
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Jaxson Dart ruled out for season with knee injury; Jameis Winston becomes starting QB | NYG | 0.99 | -5.9 | hurt +0.042 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Season-ending knee surgery for full meniscus tear; Jameis Winston now starter | NYG | Jaxson Dart | 1.00 | -2.0 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker expected to miss time with sprained ankle; missed Thursday practice | NYG | Brian Burns | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.010 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) wind 20 mph at kickoff (Chance Rain Showers) | NYG | 1.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: schedule feed now names this QB Jaxson Dart ruled out for season with severe knee injury; Jameis Winston becomes starting QB | NYG | Jameis Winston | 0.95 | -5.7 | hurt +0.040 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jaxson Dart suffered severe knee injury; Jameis Winston becomes starting QB | NYG | Jameis Winston | 0.95 | -5.7 | hurt +0.040 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Sprained MCL, expected 2-to-4 week absence from Week 2 game vs Rams | NYG | Jaxson Dart | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Week 2 game with left ankle injury in fourth quarter vs Rams | NYG | Brian Burns | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Injured in fourth quarter of Week 2 game vs Rams | NYG | Andrew Thomas | 0.80 | -1.6 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Headed for MRI after injury in Week 2 vs Rams; status unclear | NYG | Malik Nabers | 0.70 | -1.4 | hurt +0.009 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CIN @ PIT Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 41% home → analyst 38% (-2.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 67.0°F, wind 14.0 mph, Sunny
· final 27–30
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback inactive vs Bengals due to contract impasse; will not play Week 3 | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR ruled out with foot injury for Week 2 vs. Patriots; will miss Week 3 matchup vs. Bengals | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs. Bengals | CIN | Jadeveon Clowney | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Won't play in Week 3 | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Placed on IR with torn ligament in thumb | CIN | Andrei Iosivas | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Headed to IR with torn ligament in thumb | CIN | Andrei Iosivas | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Offensive lineman suffers bone break | PIT | Spencer Anderson | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') CB unlikely to play in Week 3; hasn't played this season despite limited practice participation | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB exited Week 2 game vs. Patriots with toe injury; status for Week 3 vs. Bengals unclear | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') OT seen in walking boot after Week 2 loss to Patriots; injury status unclear but suggests potential availability concern | PIT | Troy Fautanu | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DL exited Week 2 vs Patriots with shoulder injury; status for Week 3 unclear | PIT | Dre'Mont Jones | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Cornerback expected to return Week 3 vs. Cincinnati after contract/availability issue | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.013 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
SEA @ WAS Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 28% home → analyst 20% (-8.2 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 62.0°F, wind 13.0 mph, Slight Chance Light Rain
· final 31–33
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Jayden Daniels ruled out with dislocated elbow; Marcus Mariota named starter for Week 3 | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.98 | -5.9 | hurt +0.082 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Jayden Daniels out for at least this week's game vs Seahawks; Marcus Mariota to start | WAS | 0.95 | -5.7 | hurt +0.080 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out of Cardinals game (Week 2) | SEA | Anthony Bradford | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.028 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Key defensive player ruled out for Seahawks (safety injuries continue per injury report) | SEA | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.022 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jayden Daniels dislocated left elbow in Week 2; Mariota to start Week 3 | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.95 | -5.7 | hurt +0.080 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Marcus Mariota expected to start in place of injured Jayden Daniels | WAS | 0.85 | -5.1 | hurt +0.072 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Darnold optimistic he'll be starting QB on Sunday; ramping up practice reps this week after injury | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.75 | +4.5 | helped -0.066 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Jayden Daniels out for at least this week's game against Seahawks with elbow injury | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DB Nick Cross suffered internal injury in Week 2, remained in Dallas | WAS | Nick Cross | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.022 |
ARI @ SF Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 81% home → analyst 79% (-1.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Sunny
· final 30–36
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback placed on injured reserve | ARI | Will Johnson | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | SF | C.J. West | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report TE tore MCL in Week 2 vs Dolphins, out for season | SF | Jake Tonges | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for multiple weeks with pulled calf; will not play Sunday | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out with high ankle sprain, expected to miss 3-6 weeks | SF | Demarcus Robinson | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Sunday | SF | Romello Height | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Top draft pick moved to Injured Reserve | SF | De'Zhaun Stribling | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rookie suffered injury, potentially missing more than a month | SF | Romello Height | 0.80 | -1.6 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') CB Will Johnson has a neck injury that could end his season | ARI | Will Johnson | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR carted off with ankle injury vs Dolphins on 9/20; status for Cardinals game unclear but injury occurred this week | SF | Demarcus Robinson | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR expected to play Sunday per latest report (Sep 27), contradicting earlier questionable status; model may not have updated | SF | Mike Evans | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Added to injury report Thursday with calf issue; status unclear for Sunday | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Expected to play Sunday after being questionable with hip injury | SF | Mike Evans | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.004 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
MIN @ TB Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 41% home → analyst 46% (+5.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 84.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 23–16
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Kyler Murray ruled out for Week 2 with concussion protocol; Wentz to start vs Bears | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.051 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive lineman ruled out for Week 3 vs Vikings | TB | Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back placed on IR with thumb injury | MIN | Jordan Mason | 0.90 | +1.8 | hurt +0.015 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Murray suffered concussion in Week 1; Carson Wentz started Week 2; Murray expected to return Week 3 | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.051 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kyler Murray expected to return Week 3; Wentz starting Week 3 game vs TB | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.051 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Rookie starter ruled out for Sunday vs Vikings | TB | Josiah Trotter | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Rookie outside linebacker ruled out for Sunday vs Vikings | TB | Rueben Bain | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Punter set to miss some time with hamstring injury; Johnny Hekker added to practice squad | MIN | Brett Thorson | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB did not travel with team to Tampa; questionable for game | MIN | Ivan Pace Jr. | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out RB suffered knee injury in Week 2 vs Bears; worked to full practice Friday but hit hard enough to knock helmet off in game | MIN | Aaron Jones | 0.35 | +0.7 | hurt +0.006 |
5 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
BAL @ DAL Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 36% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 94.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers
· final 34–31
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Cowboys traveling to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for Sunday game; unprecedented international travel scenario for both teams | DAL | 0.75 | -0.8 | helped -0.005 | |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Ravens traveling to Brazil for Sunday game; unprecedented international travel scenario | BAL | 0.75 | +0.8 | hurt +0.006 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report OT ruled out for Ravens vs Cowboys | BAL | Ronnie Stanley | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Torn plantar fascia in right foot, suffered Week 2 | DAL | P.J. Locke | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report S will miss a few weeks with torn plantar fascia in right foot | DAL | P.J. Locke | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report CB will miss a few weeks with injuries sustained in Week 2 | DAL | Cobie Durant | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Remains out of practice on Thursday; status unclear for Sunday game | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') S absent from practice Wednesday; status unclear but not on official injury report yet | DAL | Malik Hooker | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB absent from practice Wednesday; status unclear but not on official injury report yet | DAL | DeMarvion Overshown | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DL full practice participant for first time this season; was out since Week 2 last season with neck injury | BAL | Nnamdi Madubuike | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.008 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for travel International game in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Kyle Hamilton states team has plan to mitigate travel impact | BAL | 0.65 | -0.7 | helped -0.005 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
LV @ NO Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 66% home → analyst 63% (-2.9 pts)
· final 35–27
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Left tackle suffered severe high ankle sprain, will have surgery; out for Saints vs Raiders | NO | Kelvin Banks Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Saints ruled out two players for Sunday vs. Raiders (specific names not detailed in headline) | NO | 0.50 | -1.0 | helped -0.013 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Saints LT carted off with ankle injury in Week 2 game vs Ravens (Sep 20); status for Week 3 vs Raiders unclear but injury occurred within 7 days | NO | Kelvin Banks Jr. | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LT carted off with ankle injury in Week 1; status for Week 2 vs Raiders unclear but injury occurred within 7 days | NO | Kelvin Banks | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Tight end was 'very close' to playing in Week 2; expected to return for Week 3 vs Saints | LV | Brock Bowers | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out Saints ruled out two players for Sunday vs Raiders (specific names not stated in available excerpt) | NO | 0.30 | -0.6 | helped -0.008 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
LA @ DEN Sun 8:20 PM
est. model 51% home → analyst 51% (-0.1 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 80.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Slight Chance Rain Showers
· final 26–30
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back inactive for Week 3 | DEN | RJ Harvey | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Wide receiver inactive for Week 3; was game-time decision | DEN | Marvin Mims Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR on Wednesday | LA | Ronnie Rivers | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report DPOY expected to miss up to 6 weeks following surgery | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.90 | +1.8 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Rookie RB ruled out for SNF game vs. Rams; ankle injury kept him out of practice all week | DEN | Jonah Coleman | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Star receiver unavailable for Week 3 vs Denver; McVay unsure of availability | LA | Puka Nacua | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Defensive tackle Aaron Donald confirmed to return for Week 2 after missing 2024 season; makes season debut Monday vs Giants | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.95 | -1.4 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Did not participate in practice (DNP); running back injury from Week 2 win vs Jacksonville | DEN | Jonah Coleman | 0.70 | -1.4 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out Left Week 2 game vs Jacksonville with hamstring injury; status unclear for Week 3 | DEN | JK Dobbins | 0.40 | -0.8 | hurt +0.008 |
PHI @ CHI Mon 8:15 PM
est. model 43% home → analyst 34% (-10.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Clear
· final 7–27
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Caleb Williams ruled out; Tyson Bagent questionable; Case Keenum likely starter | CHI | 0.92 | -5.5 | hurt +0.064 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Hamstring injury in Week 2; week-to-week status, may miss time but not ruled out for Week 3 | CHI | Caleb Williams | 0.75 | -4.5 | hurt +0.052 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report QB non-participant in practice Thursday and Friday; will not play Monday | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.80 | -1.6 | hurt +0.018 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Case Keenum will start at QB for Bears; Tyson Bagent cleared concussion protocol but insufficient prep time | CHI | Case Keenum | 0.95 | -5.7 | hurt +0.066 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tyson Bagent (named starter) placed in concussion protocol; Case Keenum likely to start Week 3 | CHI | 0.95 | -5.7 | hurt +0.066 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Caleb Williams suffered hamstring injury in Week 2; Tyson Bagent is named starter but Williams' status for Week 3 uncertain—reports indicate he 'could play' but is 'week-to-week' and 'will likely miss some time' | CHI | Caleb Williams | 0.75 | -4.5 | hurt +0.052 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Bagent cleared from concussion protocol, returned to practice Saturday; could start instead of Case Keenum | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.65 | +3.9 | helped -0.043 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report TE ruled out for Week 3 vs Bears | PHI | Dallas Goedert | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report QB out of practice Thursday and Friday; not expected to play Monday vs Eagles | CHI | Caleb Williams | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') In concussion protocol; estimated non-participant Thursday | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.80 | -1.6 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Right hamstring injury suffered Week 2 vs Vikings; status uncertain for Week 3 | CHI | Caleb Williams | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Tight end elevated for Monday night game; first appearance since Week 6 of 2021 season | PHI | Zach Ertz | 0.85 | -1.3 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Outside linebacker active for Monday Night Football; making 2026 debut | PHI | Jonathan Greenard | 0.80 | -1.2 | hurt +0.014 |
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