Analyst · Week 8
The stats model is the foundation. This layer reads the week's news and forecasts, reports only what the model is not already counting, and moves the number by a capped amount — every claim linked to its source, every claim graded after the final.
Is the news layer helping?
Since the layer went live, over 305 graded claims:
- The adjusted forecast has been worse than the stats model alone — net change in squared error (Brier) of +0.252, where negative is better.
- 146 of 305 claims pushed the number toward the actual result.
- It changed the final pick in 5 games, and those flips went 4–1.
This is the whole test. News can't be backtested the way the base model was (2010–25), so the layer earns its place only forward, and only if it lowers the error over many games — not on any one result. Its job is to move the number toward the truth, not to rescue a pick: when it cut a heavy home pick by 10 points and the team still lost, the move was correct (it lowered the error) even though the pick was wrong — the base model had simply started too far above the market. Picks where we disagree with the market's final price are our weaker spot (about 44% in the backtest, versus 68% when we agree) — they're flagged “we differ” on the picks table so you can watch them.
What we do with the news, step by step
This page is the news layer's public notebook. In plain terms:
- Before kickoff, every run pulls the feeds and attaches new items to the games they concern. Items published after a game has started are never read: in-game news is not a prediction input.
- The reader turns new items into claims: a type (QB change, key starter out, resting starters…), a team, a player, a direction, and a confidence.
- The filters decide, in the same run, whether a claim is applied or declined. Declined if it is below the confidence floor for its type, if the model already counts it (the player is on the injury report, the QB is already the named starter), or if it is the kind of story that has no place (offseason hires, turf, "limited in practice").
- Applied claims move the probability right then, by a fixed number of points for the type, scaled by confidence, capped. That adjusted number is the pick. "Model 74% → analyst 76%" on a game below means exactly that.
- After the final, every claim is graded, applied or declined: did it point the right way, and did it lower the error? Declined claims are graded as if they had been applied, so we learn whether the filter was right to say no.
- Once a month, with enough graded cases, the rules change for future weeks: a type that keeps hurting loses weight; a rejection reason that keeps "would have helped" gets loosened. Past picks are never touched. Every rule change is dated in the changelog.
A claim only affects the game it is attached to. It does not carry into next week's model: a starter who misses Week 2 is caught by the injury report by then, and the model counts him there.
How it works
Sources: public news feeds; the National Weather Service forecast at kickoff for outdoor stadiums; the nflverse injury report and named starters are what the model already counts. The reader (one language-model call per game, only when there is new news) returns typed claims about things not already counted. A fixed table turns each claim into points, scaled by the reader's confidence, capped per type and ±10 in total. Weather is logged at zero weight until a season of grading says otherwise.
| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
Scorecard by claim type
After each final: did the move go the right way, and did it lower the squared error (Brier)? Negative Brier change is good. Types that don't earn their weight get zeroed at season's end.
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 205 | 180 | 1.8 | 84/180 | +0.303 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 56 | 52 | 0.4 | 24/52 | +0.043 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 30 | 23 | 1.1 | 13/23 | +0.017 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 21 | 21 | 5.5 | 12/21 | -0.106 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 5/8 | +0.006 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 8 | 8 | 0.7 | 4/8 | -0.003 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| coaching change | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 3/3 | -0.028 |
| suspension | 4 | 4 | 1.9 | 1/4 | +0.014 |
| key starter returning | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 0/1 | +0.006 |
Shadow scorecard — what we declined
Rejected claims are kept at zero weight and graded as if applied. If a rejection reason keeps "helping", the rule is too strict; if "other" keeps hurting, it stays out. This is how the layer learns.
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key player out | 265 | 241 | 116/241 | +0.207 |
| retired: now on the injury report | key player out | 166 | 165 | 83/165 | +0.145 |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key player back | 113 | 104 | 61/104 | -0.118 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 64 | 61 | 29/61 | +0.016 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | QB change | 59 | 48 | 18/48 | +0.769 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 29 | 27 | 16/27 | -0.015 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | key player out | 27 | 25 | 15/25 | -0.004 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | QB change | 20 | 12 | 12/12 | -0.589 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 19 | 18 | 9/18 | +0.005 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out | key player out | 17 | 14 | 8/14 | -0.002 |
| soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) | key player back | 17 | 15 | 11/15 | -0.038 |
| already on the injury report | key player out | 16 | 16 | 7/16 | +0.100 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 16 | 13 | 7/13 | +0.017 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation | motivation | 15 | 14 | 6/14 | +0.010 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | suspension | 13 | 11 | 4/11 | +0.055 |
| confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out | key player out | 11 | 11 | 6/11 | -0.012 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 11 | 9 | 4/9 | +0.020 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | other | 10 | 9 | 7/9 | -0.018 |
| confidence 0.40 below floor for key player out | key player out | 9 | 7 | 1/7 | +0.037 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for other | other | 9 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.002 |
| about an earlier game, not this one | key player out | 8 | 5 | 4/5 | -0.032 |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching change | 8 | 8 | 5/8 | -0.027 |
| QB out: the model already uses the named starter | key player out | 6 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.011 |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key player out | key player out | 6 | 6 | 2/6 | +0.006 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out | key player out | 5 | 5 | 0/5 | +0.000 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | motivation | 5 | 5 | 1/5 | +0.039 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | travel | 5 | 5 | 3/5 | -0.010 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | turmoil | 5 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 5 | 5 | 5/5 | -0.088 |
| retired: schedule feed now names this QB | QB change | 5 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.007 |
| QB is already the named starter | QB change | 4 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.068 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 4 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 4 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.017 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | other | 4 | 4 | 1/4 | +0.004 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 3 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation | motivation | 3 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 3 | 3 | 3/3 | -0.016 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for QB change | QB change | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | -0.000 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for other | other | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.005 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for travel | travel | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.013 |
| retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) | motivation | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.067 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.034 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.011 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 2 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching change | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.002 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for QB change | QB change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.015 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.003 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for motivation | motivation | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.009 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for travel | travel | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.005 |
| offseason / logistics story, already counted | coaching change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.014 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | suspension | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.008 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.024 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.004 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.003 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.018 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.001 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.006 |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | key player out | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | QB change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: same player already counted in this game | other | 1 | 0 | – | – |
Season: stats model 76–42, model + analyst 79–39; 98 games moved, 5 picks flipped (4 won).
CAR @ GB Thu 8:15 PM
est. model 71% home → analyst 73% (+1.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 51.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Clear
· final 19–27
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Right tackle placed on injured reserve | CAR | Taylor Moton | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Won't play Thursday night | GB | Zaire Franklin | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Thursday night | CAR | Jaelan Phillips | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Linebacker likely to miss time after Week 7 injury | GB | Zaire Franklin | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Offensive lineman left Week 7 game vs Lions and unable to return; status for Week 8 unclear but injury occurred | GB | Jacob Monk | 0.70 | -1.4 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Center left Week 7 game vs Lions and unable to return; status for Week 8 unclear but injury occurred | GB | Sean Rhyan | 0.70 | -1.4 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Running back returned to Packers this week after missing six games on Commissioner's Exempt List; eligible to play Week 7 | GB | Josh Jacobs | 0.90 | +1.4 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key player out CB placed on injured reserve (already listed Out, but IR placement confirms extended absence) | CAR | Akayleb Evans | 0.30 | +0.6 | helped -0.003 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
BAL @ BUF Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 78% home → analyst 81% (+2.7 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 65.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 10–36
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Season-ending pectoral injury; outside linebacker depth will need to step up | BAL | Tavius Robinson | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.008 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Lamar Jackson ruled out for Week 7 vs. Bengals with high-ankle sprain (third consecutive game missed); Tyler Huntley starting instead | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 1.00 | +6.0 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Guard ruled out for Week 8 vs Bills | BAL | Olaivavega Ioane | 1.00 | +2.0 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Guard ruled out for Week 8 | BAL | Vega Ioane | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.008 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety available after successful appeal of one-game suspension; will play vs Ravens | BUF | Sam Franklin | 0.90 | +1.8 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') First-round guard Vega Ioane suffered injury; Ravens signed Michael Jordan to practice squad for OL depth | BAL | Vega Ioane | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Confirmed to start Sunday after missing 3 games with high ankle sprain; full practice participation | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 0.95 | -1.4 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Bills safety Sam Franklin available after successful appeal of one-game suspension | BUF | Sam Franklin | 0.90 | +1.4 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Cornerback activated from IR, returning to play for first time since Week 1 | BAL | T.J. Tampa | 0.85 | -1.3 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Defensive lineman returning from injury, expected to play vs Ravens | BUF | Ed Oliver | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.005 |
3 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
TEN @ CIN Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 88% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 70.0°F, wind 3.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 36–43
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report 3-time All-Pro DT traded to Bears on Oct 29; will not play vs Bengals | TEN | Jeffery Simmons | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Tight end placed on IR after injury in Week 7 win vs Ravens | CIN | Erick All | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Traded to Chicago Bears on Oct 29; no longer available for Titans | TEN | Jeffery Simmons | 1.00 | +2.0 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report P ruled out for Week 8 vs Bengals | TEN | Tommy Townsend | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report RB ruled out for Week 8 vs Bengals | TEN | Tyjae Spears | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out (shoulder) for Week 8 vs Bengals | TEN | Carnell Tate | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) WR cleared to play vs Titans after injury; full participant in practice | CIN | Ja'Marr Chase | 0.95 | +1.4 | helped -0.003 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
ARI @ DAL Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 77% home → analyst 79% (+2.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 78.0°F, wind 0.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 33–30
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on season-ending IR Tuesday | ARI | Jalen Brooks | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.029 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Cowboys vs Cardinals | DAL | Dee Winters | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.030 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Cowboys vs Cardinals | DAL | KaVontae Turpin | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.030 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: about an earlier game, not this one Ruled out for Week 7 vs. Broncos | ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.029 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Safety activated from IR to active roster | DAL | P.J. Locke | 0.85 | +1.3 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end added to injury report Thursday | DAL | Luke Schoonmaker | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Guard added to injury report Thursday | DAL | Tyler Smith | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Cardinals expect RB to play Sunday; returned to limited practice Wed/Thu after injury | ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.017 |
1 other item read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
MIN @ DET Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 60% home · no adjustment
· final 15–19
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback added to injury report Friday; starting CB status questionable vs Vikings | DET | Roger McCreary | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Shoulder injury, missed Wednesday practice | DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Ankle injury from Sunday; not expected to practice Wednesday | DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback left Week 7 game with ankle injury, unable to return; status for Week 8 unclear but injury occurred in most recent game | DET | Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB aggravated knee injury in Week 7 vs Colts, did not return late in game; status unclear for Week 8 | MIN | Aaron Jones | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out All-Pro safety opened to practice window (21-day clock started); eligible to return this week | DET | Kerby Joseph | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.010 |
IND @ JAX Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 79% home → analyst 81% (+1.7 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 76.0°F, wind 16.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers
· final 7–42
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB placed on IR on Oct 27 | IND | Cam Taylor-Britt | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report LT ruled out for season with torn ACL | JAX | Anton Harrison | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled Out for Week 8 vs Colts | JAX | Antonio Johnson | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DT traded to 49ers on Oct 27; no longer available | IND | DeForest Buckner | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') All-Pro guard traded to Seahawks on Oct 27; no longer available for Colts | IND | Quenton Nelson | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
12 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
LV @ NYJ Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 54% home → analyst 55% (+1.1 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 59.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Sunny
· final 38–33
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Head coach Klint Kubiak said Raiders are 'thinking about everything' including potential QB change to Fernando Mendoza after 4th straight loss | LV | 0.65 | +3.9 | hurt +0.043 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak said 'we're thinking about everything' regarding QB change after four straight losses; Mendoza being considered to replace Kirk Cousins | LV | Fernando Mendoza | 0.65 | +3.9 | hurt +0.043 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Placed on injured reserve, out for at least 4 weeks | NYJ | T'Vondre Sweat | 1.00 | -2.0 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Starting WR set to return this Sunday vs Dolphins after missing since Week 2 with finger injury | NYJ | Adonai Mitchell | 0.90 | +1.4 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR activated off IR on Oct 27 | LV | Dont'e Thornton | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key player out Running back could miss fourth consecutive game with quadriceps injury; returned to practice but status uncertain | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.45 | -0.9 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for key player out Rookie RB held out of practice with groin injury (practice status, not ruled out) | NYJ | David Bailey | 0.00 | 0.0 | after the final +0.000 |
8 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CLE @ PIT Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 63% home → analyst 68% (+5.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 62.0°F, wind 0.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 6–27
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR on Oct 24 | CLE | Teven Jenkins | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report OT ruled out after injury in Week 7 vs Titans | CLE | Tytus Howard | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report DT ruled out after injury in Week 7 vs Titans | CLE | Mason Graham | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') OT injured in Week 7 vs Titans (2nd half) | CLE | Tytus Howard | 0.70 | +1.4 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DT injured in Week 7 vs Titans (2nd half) | CLE | Mason Graham | 0.70 | +1.4 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Activated to active roster on Oct 24 | PIT | DeShon Elliott | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out RB activated from IR | CLE | Dylan Sampson | 0.85 | -1.3 | hurt +0.010 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
ATL @ TB Sun 1:00 PM
est. model 50% home → analyst 52% (+1.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 81.0°F, wind 12.0 mph, Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms
· final 0–16
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback ruled out for Sunday's game | ATL | Billy Bowman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.019 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Baker Mayfield returning from 3-game absence (dislocated thumb); fully practiced Wed/Thu; expected to start Week 7 vs Panthers, then faces Falcons Week 8 | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.85 | -5.1 | hurt +0.054 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Wide receiver will miss Sunday's game with foot injury | TB | Emeka Egbuka | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Running back ruled out for Sunday vs. Buccaneers | ATL | Brian Robinson | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Missed Sunday's game against Falcons with Achilles tendinitis; working to manage condition | TB | Mike Evans | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out QB returned from dislocated right thumb, started Week 7 vs Panthers after missing 3 games | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.95 | +1.4 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Cornerback activated from IR on Oct 24 | ATL | A.J. Terrell | 0.90 | -1.4 | hurt +0.014 |
LAC @ LA Sun 4:05 PM
est. model 81% home → analyst 79% (-1.7 pts)
· final 9–24
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker will not return to practice this week, ruled out for Week 8 | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Won't return to practice this week; remains on injured reserve | LA | Terrance Ferguson | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out vs. Rams after hamstring setback; could land on IR | LAC | Derwin James | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Ruled out for Rams vs. Raiders (Week 7) | LA | Nate Landman | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Knee injury; return timeline unknown as of Oct 26 | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Linebacker trending to play in Week 8 | LA | Nate Landman | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Cornerback trending to play in Week 8 | LA | Trent McDuffie | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.004 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
KC @ DEN Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 56% home → analyst 61% (+5.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 62.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 24–28
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB ruled out for Sunday | KC | Mansoor Delane | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB placed on IR | KC | L'Jarius Sneed | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back placed on IR ahead of Seahawks game | KC | Brashard Smith | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Wide receiver ruled out for Week 8 vs. Chiefs after being listed questionable | DEN | Jaylen Waddle | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: QB out: the model already uses the named starter Running back ruled out for Sunday's game vs. Chiefs due to knee injury | DEN | RJ Harvey | 0.99 | -2.0 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety officially ruled out for Sunday's game vs. Chiefs | DEN | Talanoa Hufanga | 0.99 | -2.0 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Cornerback out for third straight game (ankle injury); reports suggest return next week vs KC | DEN | Pat Surtain II | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Cornerback ruled out for third straight game; ankle injury | DEN | Pat Surtain II | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Hamstring injury sustained in Week 7; did not participate in Wednesday practice | DEN | Zach Allen | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR returns from hamstring injury | KC | Rashee Rice | 0.85 | -1.3 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR suffered apparent injury in Week 7 game vs Cardinals (Oct 25), status for KC game unclear | DEN | Jaylen Waddle | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Expected to return next week vs. KC after missing third straight game vs. Arizona | DEN | Pat Surtain II | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.010 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Traveling separately to Seattle due to injury | KC | L'Jarius Sneed | 0.85 | +0.8 | helped -0.007 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Cornerback traveling separately to Seattle; injury-related travel arrangement | KC | L'Jarius Sneed | 0.75 | +0.8 | helped -0.007 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) CB traveling separately to Seattle; injury management | KC | L'Jarius Sneed | 0.75 | +0.8 | helped -0.007 |
5 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
NE @ MIA Sun 4:25 PM
est. model 28% home → analyst 32% (+3.8 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 79.0°F, wind 14.0 mph, Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
· final 24–19
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back ruled out for Week 8 vs Dolphins | NE | TreVeyon Henderson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Wide receiver ruled out for Week 8 vs Dolphins | NE | A.J. Brown | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Punter released from injured reserve on 10/26 | NE | Bryce Baringer | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Offensive lineman in concussion protocol | MIA | Kadyn Proctor | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB added to injury report Thursday due to illness, unable to practice | NE | TreVeyon Henderson | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Starting cornerback returns after missing last three games | NE | Carlton Davis III | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Starting cornerback ready to return after missing last three games | NE | Carlton Davis | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver pushing through ankle injury; status unclear for Sunday | NE | A.J. Brown | 0.55 | +1.1 | hurt +0.006 |
2 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
PHI @ WAS Sun 8:20 PM
est. model 61% home → analyst 68% (+6.6 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 52.0°F, wind 1.0 mph, Mostly Clear
· final 10–27
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Jalen Hurts out for season with blood clots; Tanner McKee taking over as starting QB | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.99 | +5.9 | helped -0.041 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR, will miss rest of season after Week 6 loss | WAS | Terry McLaurin | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB placed on injured reserve Wednesday | PHI | Dameon Pierce | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.014 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts ruled out for rest of season with deep vein thrombosis and blood clots in lungs; backup QB will start | PHI | 0.99 | +5.9 | helped -0.041 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts ruled out for rest of season with deep vein thrombosis and blood clots in lungs; backup QB will start | PHI | 0.99 | +5.9 | helped -0.041 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts ruled out for rest of season with deep vein thrombosis and blood clots in lungs; backup QB will start | PHI | 0.99 | +5.9 | helped -0.041 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts ruled out for rest of season with deep vein thrombosis and blood clots in lungs; backup QB will start | PHI | 0.99 | +5.9 | helped -0.041 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: read before this team's previous game (old news) Jalen Hurts ruled out for rest of season with deep vein thrombosis and blood clots in lungs; backup QB will start | PHI | 0.99 | +5.9 | helped -0.041 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jalen Hurts sidelined by blood clots in lungs; McKee taking over as starting QB | PHI | Tanner McKee | 0.95 | +5.7 | helped -0.040 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Daron Payne ruled out with season-ending foot fracture | WAS | Daron Payne | 0.99 | -2.0 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 8 vs. Commanders | PHI | DeVonta Smith | 0.99 | +2.0 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out with knee injury in Week 7 game vs Cowboys | PHI | Britain Covey | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Recovering from life-threatening blood clot condition; cleared to play despite clot and flew long-haul | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Suffered new injury (back/hamstring) in Week 7 game vs Cowboys; uncertain availability for upcoming games | PHI | Saquon Barkley | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.011 |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching change Steve Wilks's role expanded to include game days; defensive coordinator duties expanded this week | WAS | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.010 |
6 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
CHI @ SEA Mon 8:15 PM
est. model 61% home → analyst 63% (+1.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 51.0°F, wind 1.0 mph, Cloudy
· final 34–17
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Inactive for Bears vs. Seahawks | CHI | Malik Muhammad II | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report RB ruled out, will miss fourth consecutive game | CHI | Kyle Monangai | 1.00 | +2.0 | hurt +0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Left tackle out with high-ankle sprain, expected to miss 1-2 weeks | SEA | Charles Cross | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left tackle likely to miss 1-2 weeks with high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 7 | SEA | Charles Cross | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out RB off injury report, making season debut Monday night | SEA | Zach Charbonnet | 0.95 | +1.4 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Week 7 game vs Chiefs with hamstring injury; will not return | SEA | Velus Jones Jr. | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Rookie RB cleared to return, first game alongside Charbonnet | SEA | Jadarian Price | 0.90 | +1.4 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB listed as non-participant in Thursday practice; remains sidelined for Week 8 | CHI | Kyle Monangai | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Week 7 game vs Chiefs with knee injury; status for Week 8 unclear | SEA | Rashid Shaheed | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end limited at practice Thursday with neck injury; status unclear for Monday | CHI | Colston Loveland | 0.60 | +1.2 | hurt +0.015 |
8 other items read and graded, not shown (we publish roster and schedule facts only).
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