We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
NYA Girls
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish2 of 11 (76 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–3
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.23%
Top 3 est.96%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points76
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)23:13
Pack: 1st to 5th runner149 s
Scoring five's projected places9 · 15 · 17 · 21 · 29
6th runner behind the 5th89 s
Against the teams around them
Maranacook (projected 3)+9 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Winthrop141 pts
Their points vs the last team in-65
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
NYA runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #9 overall | 21:59 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #15 overall | 22:51 | 97%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #17 overall | 23:10 | 94%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #21 overall | 23:34 | 87%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #29 overall | 24:28 | 52%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #44 overall | 25:57 | 6%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #50 overall | 26:48 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.