We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

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Class B South Girls

13 schools, 100 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Twin Brook Recreation Area, CumberlandHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)11

To the state meettop 6 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered100

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course+10 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Twin Brook (Cumberland) rated +10 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

A close race at the top: Yarmouth (est. 38%) and Freeport (est. 36%). Why Yarmouth: Freeport's five average 5 s per runner faster, but Yarmouth's runners land in better places at runners #2 and #5, and other teams' runners in between decide it. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 100 s (Freeport: 180 s).

Closest projected battle: Freeport vs Yarmouth, 1 point apart (53 to 54).

On the state-meet line (top 6 go): York est. 72%; Greely est. 40%.

Projected individual winner: Lincoln Academy · runner 1, est. 62% to win; 29 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): Greely to States est. 53% -> est. 40%; York to States est. 60% -> est. 72%.

Team projection · free6 of 11 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	FreeportWMC · finish 1–3	36%	99%	>99%	53	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 180 s
2	YarmouthWMC · finish 1–3	38%	99%	>99%	54	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 100 s
3	Cape ElizabethWMC · finish 1–3	26%	98%	>99%	66	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 90 s
4	Lincoln AcademyKVAC · finish 4–5	<1%	4%	98%	115	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 342 s
5	MorseKVAC · finish 4–7	<1%	<1%	90%	129	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 167 s
6	YorkWMC · finish 5–7 · up from est. 60% before conf. meets	<1%	<1%	72%	149	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 207 s
↑ State meet line: the top 6 teams
7	GreelyWMC · finish 5–7 · down from est. 53% before conf. meets	<1%	<1%	40%	160	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 107 s
8	PolandWMC · finish 8–10	<1%	<1%	<1%	267	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 599 s
9	Spruce MountainMVC · finish 8–10	<1%	<1%	<1%	270	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 389 s
10	LeavittKVAC · finish 8–11	<1%	<1%	<1%	292	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 368 s
11	Lake RegionWMC · finish 10–11	<1%	<1%	<1%	298	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 183 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Gray-New Gloucester, Wells.

Every runner · by school and number82 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Lincoln Academy · runner 1	18:41	1–4	>99%	62%
2	Freeport · runner 1	20:04	2–15	>99%	8%
3	Yarmouth · runner 1	20:10	2–15	>99%	6%
4	Yarmouth · runner 2	20:20	2–17	>99%	5%
5	Freeport · runner 2	20:25	2–18	>99%	3%
6	Freeport · runner 3	20:29	3–19	>99%	3%
7	Freeport · runner 4	20:35	3–20	>99%	2%
8	Cape Elizabeth · runner 1	20:40	3–21	99%	2%
9	Morse · runner 1	20:41	3–20	99%	2%
10	Lincoln Academy · runner 2	20:43	3–21	99%	2%
11	Cape Elizabeth · runner 2	20:54	4–23	98%	1%
12	Cape Elizabeth · runner 3	20:56	4–23	98%	1%
13	Yarmouth · runner 3	21:02	5–25	97%	<1%
14	York · runner 1	21:07	5–26	96%	<1%
15	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 1individual (no team score)	21:14	5–27	94%	<1%
16	Wells · runner 1individual (no team score)	21:24	7–29	92%	<1%
17	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 2individual (no team score)	21:26	7–29	92%	<1%
18	Cape Elizabeth · runner 4	21:31	8–30	90%	<1%
19	Yarmouth · runner 4	21:40	9–32	87%	<1%
20	Poland · runner 1	21:50	10–34	82%	<1%
21	Yarmouth · runner 5	21:50	10–33	83%	<1%
22	York · runner 2	22:00	12–36	78%	<1%
23	Cape Elizabeth · runner 5	22:10	13–38	70%	<1%
24	Yarmouth · runner 6	22:11	13–38	70%	<1%
25	Cape Elizabeth · runner 6	22:14	14–39	69%	<1%
26	Cape Elizabeth · runner 7	22:17	14–39	66%	<1%
27	Greely · runner 1	22:21	15–40	64%	<1%
28	Lincoln Academy · runner 3	22:31	16–42	58%	<1%
29	Morse · runner 2	22:33	17–42	55%	<1%
30	York · runner 3	22:46	19–45	46%	<1%
31	Greely · runner 2	22:48	20–44	45%	<1%
32	Morse · runner 3	22:51	20–45	40%	<1%
33	Morse · runner 4	22:56	21–46	39%	<1%
34	Greely · runner 3	23:00	21–47	36%	<1%
35	Yarmouth · runner 7	23:00	22–47	34%	<1%
36	Freeport · runner 5	23:05	22–48	33%	<1%
37	Spruce Mountain · runner 1	23:17	25–50	23%	<1%
38	Morse · runner 5	23:28	27–52	19%	<1%
39	Lincoln Academy · runner 4	23:29	20–58	28%	<1%
40	Greely · runner 4	23:30	28–52	16%	<1%
41	Freeport · runner 6	23:32	28–52	16%	<1%
42	Freeport · runner 7	23:33	28–52	16%	<1%
43	Wells · runner 2individual (no team score)	23:41	29–54	12%	<1%
44	Wells · runner 3individual (no team score)	23:42	29–53	13%	<1%
45	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 3individual (no team score)	23:43	30–53	12%	<1%
46	Greely · runner 5	24:07	34–57	5%	<1%
47	Greely · runner 6	24:11	35–57	5%	<1%
48	Spruce Mountain · runner 2	24:12	35–58	4%	<1%
49	Lincoln Academy · runner 5	24:24	37–59	3%	<1%
50	York · runner 4	24:26	37–60	3%	<1%
51	York · runner 5	24:35	32–64	8%	<1%
52	York · runner 6	24:40	40–61	1%	<1%
53	Morse · runner 6	24:45	41–62	<1%	<1%
54	Lincoln Academy · runner 6	24:48	41–62	<1%	<1%
55	Leavitt · runner 1	24:49	42–62	<1%	<1%
56	Morse · runner 7	24:57	43–63	<1%	<1%
57	York · runner 7	25:01	44–63	<1%	<1%
58	Lincoln Academy · runner 7	25:29	49–65	<1%	<1%
59	Poland · runner 2	25:29	49–65	<1%	<1%
60	Lake Region · runner 1	25:35	50–66	<1%	<1%
61	Greely · runner 7	25:48	52–67	<1%	<1%
62	Lake Region · runner 2	25:52	53–67	<1%	<1%
63	Leavitt · runner 2Little data	25:55	36–71	7%	<1%
64	Leavitt · runner 3	25:56	53–67	<1%	<1%
65	Wells · runner 4individual (no team score)	25:59	48–69	<1%	<1%
66	Leavitt · runner 4	26:04	55–67	<1%	<1%
67	Poland · runner 3	26:06	55–67	<1%	<1%
68	Lake Region · runner 3	27:35	65–71	<1%	<1%
69	Spruce Mountain · runner 3	28:06	66–72	<1%	<1%
70	Lake Region · runner 4	28:19	67–73	<1%	<1%
71	Lake Region · runner 5	28:38	66–75	<1%	<1%
72	Spruce Mountain · runner 4	29:00	69–74	<1%	<1%
73	Poland · runner 4	29:44	71–76	<1%	<1%
74	Spruce Mountain · runner 5	29:47	71–76	<1%	<1%
75	Lake Region · runner 6	30:00	71–77	<1%	<1%
76	Leavitt · runner 5	30:57	74–79	<1%	<1%
77	Leavitt · runner 6	31:06	74–79	<1%	<1%
78	Poland · runner 5Little data	31:49	71–81	<1%	<1%
79	Leavitt · runner 7	31:58	76–80	<1%	<1%
80	Spruce Mountain · runner 6	32:29	77–81	<1%	<1%
81	Poland · runner 6	33:03	78–81	<1%	<1%
82	Poland · runner 7	37:19	82–82	<1%	<1%

Show all 82 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.