We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Spruce Mountain Girls
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish9 of 11 (270 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)8–10
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points270
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)26:52
Pack: 1st to 5th runner389 s
Scoring five's projected places37 · 48 · 69 · 72 · 74
6th runner behind the 5th162 s
Against the teams around them
Poland (projected 8)+7 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: York149 pts
Their points vs the last team in+121
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Spruce Mountain runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #37 overall | 23:17 | 23%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #48 overall | 24:12 | 4%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #69 overall | 28:06 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #72 overall | 29:00 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #74 overall | 29:47 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #80 overall | 32:29 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.