We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

← All regionals · Class B North · Girls

Class B North Girls

16 schools, 90 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Troy Howard Middle School, BelfastHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)10

To the state meettop 5 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered90

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course-46 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Troy Howard (Belfast) rated -46 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

A close race at the top: Presque Isle (est. 54%) and Mt. Desert Island (est. 46%). Why Presque Isle: their scoring five average 19 s per runner faster than Mt. Desert Island's. They place ahead of Mt. Desert Island at runners #3, #4 and #5. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 135 s (Mt. Desert Island: 152 s).

Closest projected battle: Presque Isle vs Mt. Desert Island, 8 points apart (44 to 52).

The state-meet line (top 5) looks settled: no team is between est. 20% and est. 80%.

Projected individual winner: Caribou · runner 1, est. 50% to win; 27 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): Presque Isle to win est. 59% -> est. 54%; Mt. Desert Island to win est. 41% -> est. 46%.

Team projection · free5 of 10 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	Presque IslePVC · finish 1–2	54%	>99%	>99%	44	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 135 s
2	Mt. Desert IslandPVC · finish 1–2	46%	>99%	>99%	52	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 152 s
3	CaribouPVC · finish 3–4	<1%	74%	>99%	91	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 318 s
4	WatervilleKVAC · finish 3–5	<1%	18%	96%	109	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 140 s
5	John BapstPVC · finish 4–5	<1%	7%	93%	120	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 252 s
↑ State meet line: the top 5 teams
6	EllsworthPVC · finish 5–7	<1%	<1%	11%	146	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 412 s
7	Old TownPVC · finish 6–8	<1%	<1%	<1%	192	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 220 s
8	ConyKVAC · finish 7–9	<1%	<1%	<1%	207	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 858 s
9	LawrenceKVAC · finish 8–10	<1%	<1%	<1%	218	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 230 s
10	GardinerKVAC · finish 9–10	<1%	<1%	<1%	243	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 214 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Belfast, Erskine Academy, Foxcroft Academy, Hermon, Medomak Valley, Nokomis.

Every runner · by school and number78 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Caribou · runner 1	18:10	1–5	>99%	50%
2	Mt. Desert Island · runner 1	19:08	1–11	>99%	11%
3	Presque Isle · runner 1	19:10	2–11	>99%	10%
4	Mt. Desert Island · runner 2	19:25	2–13	>99%	6%
5	Presque Isle · runner 2	19:32	2–13	>99%	6%
6	Ellsworth · runner 1	19:35	2–14	>99%	5%
7	Caribou · runner 2	19:52	3–16	>99%	2%
8	Nokomis · runner 1individual (no team score)	19:56	3–17	>99%	2%
9	John Bapst · runner 1	20:03	4–18	>99%	1%
10	Presque Isle · runner 3	20:08	4–18	>99%	1%
11	Presque Isle · runner 4	20:13	4–19	>99%	1%
12	Waterville · runner 1	20:20	5–20	>99%	<1%
13	Mt. Desert Island · runner 3	20:35	6–22	99%	<1%
14	John Bapst · runner 2	20:48	7–24	98%	<1%
15	Caribou · runner 3	20:54	8–25	98%	<1%
16	Mt. Desert Island · runner 4	21:13	10–28	94%	<1%
17	Cony · runner 1	21:17	10–28	94%	<1%
18	Presque Isle · runner 5	21:25	11–30	91%	<1%
19	Medomak Valley · runner 1individual (no team score)	21:25	11–30	92%	<1%
20	Old Town · runner 1	21:33	12–32	87%	<1%
21	Mt. Desert Island · runner 5	21:40	13–33	85%	<1%
22	John Bapst · runner 3	21:48	14–34	82%	<1%
23	Mt. Desert Island · runner 6	21:51	14–35	81%	<1%
24	Mt. Desert Island · runner 7Little data	21:58	4–53	61%	4%
25	Waterville · runner 2	22:03	16–37	73%	<1%
26	Waterville · runner 3	22:17	18–39	66%	<1%
27	Waterville · runner 4	22:27	19–41	57%	<1%
28	Belfast · runner 1individual (no team score)	22:37	20–44	48%	<1%
29	Waterville · runner 5	22:40	20–44	48%	<1%
30	Ellsworth · runner 2	22:41	21–44	46%	<1%
31	Ellsworth · runner 3	22:49	22–45	41%	<1%
32	Lawrence · runner 1	22:58	23–47	35%	<1%
33	Ellsworth · runner 4	23:00	24–47	33%	<1%
34	Caribou · runner 4	23:08	24–49	28%	<1%
35	John Bapst · runner 4	23:11	25–49	27%	<1%
36	Hermon · runner 1individual (no team score)	23:12	25–49	26%	<1%
37	Cony · runner 2	23:13	25–49	25%	<1%
38	Old Town · runner 2	23:13	25–49	23%	<1%
39	Presque Isle · runner 6	23:15	26–49	22%	<1%
40	Presque Isle · runner 7	23:15	26–49	23%	<1%
41	Cony · runner 3	23:19	27–50	20%	<1%
42	Caribou · runner 5	23:28	27–51	16%	<1%
43	Gardiner · runner 1	23:34	28–52	15%	<1%
44	Lawrence · runner 2	23:36	29–53	14%	<1%
45	Lawrence · runner 3	23:42	30–54	11%	<1%
46	Waterville · runner 6	23:43	30–53	10%	<1%
47	Waterville · runner 7	23:44	31–54	10%	<1%
48	Old Town · runner 3	23:49	31–54	8%	<1%
49	Old Town · runner 4	24:01	33–56	6%	<1%
50	Caribou · runner 6	24:11	36–57	4%	<1%
51	John Bapst · runner 5	24:14	36–57	3%	<1%
52	Gardiner · runner 2	24:44	42–61	<1%	<1%
53	Foxcroft Academy · runner 1individual (no team score)	25:02	45–63	<1%	<1%
54	Gardiner · runner 3	25:11	46–63	<1%	<1%
55	Gardiner · runner 4	25:12	46–63	<1%	<1%
56	Old Town · runner 5	25:13	46–64	<1%	<1%
57	Lawrence · runner 4	25:14	47–64	<1%	<1%
58	Caribou · runner 7	25:22	48–65	<1%	<1%
59	John Bapst · runner 6	25:22	48–64	<1%	<1%
60	Erskine Academy · runner 1individual (no team score)	25:41	51–66	<1%	<1%
61	Foxcroft Academy · runner 2individual (no team score)	25:42	51–66	<1%	<1%
62	Belfast · runner 2individual (no team score)	25:53	53–67	<1%	<1%
63	Belfast · runner 3individual (no team score)	26:24	57–68	<1%	<1%
64	Nokomis · runner 2individual (no team score)	26:25	57–68	<1%	<1%
65	Ellsworth · runner 5	26:26	57–68	<1%	<1%
66	Erskine Academy · runner 2individual (no team score)	26:29	53–70	<1%	<1%
67	Lawrence · runner 5	26:48	59–69	<1%	<1%
68	Gardiner · runner 5	27:08	61–70	<1%	<1%
69	Lawrence · runner 6	27:40	64–71	<1%	<1%
70	Cony · runner 4	28:38	68–73	<1%	<1%
71	Hermon · runner 2individual (no team score)	28:54	69–74	<1%	<1%
72	Erskine Academy · runner 3Little dataindividual (no team score)	29:10	63–76	<1%	<1%
73	Lawrence · runner 7	29:17	70–74	<1%	<1%
74	Erskine Academy · runner 4Little dataindividual (no team score)	29:36	65–76	<1%	<1%
75	Foxcroft Academy · runner 3individual (no team score)	31:22	74–76	<1%	<1%
76	Gardiner · runner 6	31:34	74–76	<1%	<1%
77	Nokomis · runner 3individual (no team score)	33:32	76–78	<1%	<1%
78	Cony · runner 5	35:35	77–78	<1%	<1%

Show all 78 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.