We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Cony Girls
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 5 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish8 of 10 (207 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)7–9
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points207
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)26:24
Pack: 1st to 5th runner858 s
Scoring five's projected places17 · 37 · 41 · 70 · 78
6th runner behind the 5thno 6th runner
Against the teams around them
Old Town (projected 7)-171 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: John Bapst120 pts
Their points vs the last team in+87
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Cony runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #17 overall | 21:17 | 94%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #37 overall | 23:13 | 25%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #41 overall | 23:19 | 20%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #70 overall | 28:38 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #78 overall | 35:35 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.