We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

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Class A North Girls

12 schools, 96 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Troy Howard Middle School, BelfastHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)10

To the state meettop 5 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered96

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course-46 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Troy Howard (Belfast) rated -46 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

Hampden Academy lead the projection clearly (est. 93% to win). Why Hampden Academy: their scoring five average 59 s per runner faster than Camden Hills'. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 132 s (Camden Hills: 129 s).

Closest projected battle: Lewiston vs Edward Little, 1 point apart (269 to 270).

The state-meet line (top 5) looks settled: no team is between est. 20% and est. 80%.

Projected individual winner: Hampden Academy · runner 1, est. 60% to win; 27 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): no team's chances moved 5 points or more.

Team projection · free5 of 10 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	Hampden AcademyKVAC · finish 1	93%	>99%	>99%	32	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 132 s
2	Camden HillsKVAC · finish 2–3	7%	>99%	>99%	62	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 129 s
3	BrunswickKVAC · finish 2–3	<1%	94%	>99%	69	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 216 s
4	Mt. AraratKVAC · finish 4	<1%	6%	>99%	110	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 254 s
5	BangorKVAC · finish 5–6	<1%	<1%	80%	140	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 186 s
↑ State meet line: the top 5 teams
6	Mt. BlueKVAC · finish 5–7	<1%	<1%	17%	166	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 164 s
7	Oxford HillsKVAC · finish 6–7	<1%	<1%	3%	180	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 253 s
8	SkowheganKVAC · finish 8–9	<1%	<1%	<1%	256	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 267 s
9	LewistonKVAC · finish 8–10	<1%	<1%	<1%	269	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 413 s
10	Edward LittleKVAC · finish 9–10	<1%	<1%	<1%	270	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 298 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Brewer, Messalonskee.

Every runner · by school and number77 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Hampden Academy · runner 1	18:10	1–4	>99%	60%
2	Brunswick · runner 1	19:30	1–16	>99%	16%
3	Camden Hills · runner 1	19:34	2–12	>99%	7%
4	Brunswick · runner 2	19:50	2–14	>99%	4%
5	Mt. Ararat · runner 1	19:56	2–14	>99%	3%
6	Hampden Academy · runner 2	19:59	3–15	>99%	2%
7	Hampden Academy · runner 3	20:13	3–17	>99%	1%
8	Hampden Academy · runner 4	20:15	3–17	>99%	1%
9	Camden Hills · runner 2	20:21	4–17	>99%	1%
10	Hampden Academy · runner 5	20:22	3–17	>99%	1%
11	Mt. Ararat · runner 2	20:25	4–18	>99%	<1%
12	Bangor · runner 1	20:45	5–20	>99%	<1%
13	Hampden Academy · runner 6	20:46	5–20	>99%	<1%
14	Camden Hills · runner 3	20:47	5–20	>99%	<1%
15	Brunswick · runner 3	21:06	7–23	99%	<1%
16	Hampden Academy · runner 7	21:28	9–26	97%	<1%
17	Camden Hills · runner 4	21:30	9–26	96%	<1%
18	Oxford Hills · runner 1	21:40	10–28	95%	<1%
19	Camden Hills · runner 5	21:42	11–28	94%	<1%
20	Camden Hills · runner 6	21:54	12–30	91%	<1%
21	Camden Hills · runner 7	21:57	13–30	91%	<1%
22	Brunswick · runner 4	22:12	10–39	75%	<1%
23	Mt. Blue · runner 1	22:14	14–33	84%	<1%
24	Bangor · runner 2	22:24	16–35	79%	<1%
25	Oxford Hills · runner 2	22:42	18–38	67%	<1%
26	Messalonskee · runner 1individual (no team score)	22:43	18–38	67%	<1%
27	Brunswick · runner 5	23:06	21–41	52%	<1%
28	Mt. Ararat · runner 3	23:09	21–41	50%	<1%
29	Brunswick · runner 6	23:09	21–41	50%	<1%
30	Mt. Ararat · runner 4	23:10	21–41	49%	<1%
31	Mt. Blue · runner 2	23:14	22–42	44%	<1%
32	Brunswick · runner 7	23:20	23–43	40%	<1%
33	Mt. Blue · runner 3	23:25	23–44	38%	<1%
34	Brewer · runner 1individual (no team score)	23:26	24–44	35%	<1%
35	Bangor · runner 3	23:34	25–45	31%	<1%
36	Bangor · runner 4	23:34	24–46	31%	<1%
37	Lewiston · runner 1	23:41	25–46	27%	<1%
38	Mt. Blue · runner 4	23:43	26–46	25%	<1%
39	Bangor · runner 5	23:51	26–47	21%	<1%
40	Mt. Ararat · runner 5	24:10	24–54	23%	<1%
41	Mt. Ararat · runner 6	24:13	31–50	10%	<1%
42	Edward Little · runner 1	24:21	32–51	8%	<1%
43	Mt. Ararat · runner 7	24:23	32–51	8%	<1%
44	Skowhegan · runner 1	24:24	32–51	7%	<1%
45	Messalonskee · runner 2individual (no team score)	24:36	34–53	5%	<1%
46	Oxford Hills · runner 3	24:36	34–52	4%	<1%
47	Oxford Hills · runner 4	24:46	35–54	3%	<1%
48	Mt. Blue · runner 5	24:58	38–55	2%	<1%
49	Skowhegan · runner 2	25:00	38–55	2%	<1%
50	Skowhegan · runner 3	25:04	38–55	2%	<1%
51	Mt. Blue · runner 6	25:18	41–56	<1%	<1%
52	Messalonskee · runner 3individual (no team score)	25:23	41–57	<1%	<1%
53	Edward Little · runner 2	25:51	45–59	<1%	<1%
54	Oxford Hills · runner 5	25:53	46–59	<1%	<1%
55	Lewiston · runner 2	25:54	46–59	<1%	<1%
56	Oxford Hills · runner 6	26:12	48–61	<1%	<1%
57	Oxford Hills · runner 7	26:28	50–62	<1%	<1%
58	Mt. Blue · runner 7	26:38	51–63	<1%	<1%
59	Brewer · runner 2individual (no team score)	27:16	55–65	<1%	<1%
60	Lewiston · runner 3	27:21	55–66	<1%	<1%
61	Bangor · runner 6	27:31	56–66	<1%	<1%
62	Edward Little · runner 3	27:39	57–67	<1%	<1%
63	Bangor · runner 7	27:46	57–67	<1%	<1%
64	Skowhegan · runner 4	27:49	58–67	<1%	<1%
65	Edward Little · runner 4	27:52	58–68	<1%	<1%
66	Lewiston · runner 4	28:02	59–68	<1%	<1%
67	Skowhegan · runner 5	28:51	63–70	<1%	<1%
68	Skowhegan · runner 6	29:10	64–71	<1%	<1%
69	Edward Little · runner 5	29:19	65–72	<1%	<1%
70	Brewer · runner 3individual (no team score)	29:54	67–73	<1%	<1%
71	Edward Little · runner 6	30:06	67–73	<1%	<1%
72	Skowhegan · runner 7	30:21	68–73	<1%	<1%
73	Lewiston · runner 5	30:34	69–73	<1%	<1%
74	Brewer · runner 4individual (no team score)	33:06	74–76	<1%	<1%
75	Edward Little · runner 7	33:34	74–77	<1%	<1%
76	Lewiston · runner 6	33:54	74–77	<1%	<1%
77	Messalonskee · runner 4individual (no team score)	34:01	74–77	<1%	<1%

Show all 77 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.