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We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

← All regionals · Class C North · Girls

Class C North Girls

14 schools, 61 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →
Sat Oct 24Troy Howard Middle School, BelfastHow we got the numbers
Teams (5+ runners)7
To the state meettop 4 teams + top 30 runners
Runners entered61
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Troy Howard (Belfast) rated -46 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

Orono lead the projection clearly (est. 65% to win). Why Orono: their scoring five average 9 s per runner faster than George Stevens Academy's. They place ahead of George Stevens Academy at runners #1, #3 and #4. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 230 s (George Stevens Academy: 189 s).

Closest projected battle: Calais vs Narraguagus, 3 points apart (81 to 84).

The state-meet line (top 4) looks settled: no team is between est. 20% and est. 80%.

Projected individual winner: Orono · runner 1, est. 39% to win; 30 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): Orono to win est. 34% -> est. 65%; George Stevens Academy to win est. 66% -> est. 35%.

Team projection · free4 of 7 go to States
#TeamChance to win est.Top 3 est.To States est.PtsScoring fivePack
1 OronoPVC · finish 1–2
65%
>99%
>99%
 34 runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 1–5 split 230 s
2 George Stevens AcademyPVC · finish 1–2
35%
>99%
>99%
 42 runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 1–5 split 189 s
3 CalaisPVC · finish 3–4
<1%
47%
>99%
 81 runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 1–5 split 349 s
4 NarraguagusPVC · finish 3–4
<1%
53%
>99%
 84 runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 1–5 split 170 s
↑ State meet line: the top 4 teams
5 Houlton/GHCAPVC · finish 5–6
<1%
<1%
<1%
 123 runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 1–5 split 319 s
6 MCIKVAC · finish 5–6
<1%
<1%
<1%
 142 runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 1–5 split 504 s
7 Schenck/StearnsPVC · finish 7
<1%
<1%
<1%
 176 runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 1–5 split 528 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Bangor Christian, Bucksport, Dexter, MSSM, Sumner, Washington Academy, Winslow.

Every runner · by school and number60 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#RunnerTimeLikely placeTop 30 est.Win est.
1 Orono · runner 1 20:02 1–5
>99%
 39%
2 George Stevens Academy · runner 1 20:18 1–6
>99%
 24%
3 George Stevens Academy · runner 2 21:04 2–10
>99%
 7%
4 Dexter · runner 1individual (no team score) 21:06 2–10
>99%
 6%
5 Orono · runner 2 21:21 2–12
>99%
 4%
6 Calais · runner 1 21:26 3–12
>99%
 4%
7 Bucksport · runner 1individual (no team score) 21:36 3–14
>99%
 3%
8 Bangor Christian · runner 1individual (no team score) 22:26 6–20
>99%
 <1%
9 Orono · runner 3 22:29 6–20
>99%
 <1%
10 Orono · runner 4 22:30 6–20
>99%
 <1%
11 George Stevens Academy · runner 3 22:43 7–22
>99%
 <1%
12 Bangor Christian · runner 2Little dataindividual (no team score) 22:44 2–33
86%
 9%
13 Calais · runner 2 22:45 7–22
>99%
 <1%
14 Narraguagus · runner 1 22:53 8–23
>99%
 <1%
15 MCI · runner 1 22:58 8–24
>99%
 <1%
16 Dexter · runner 2individual (no team score) 23:02 8–24
>99%
 <1%
17 Calais · runner 3 23:04 9–24
99%
 <1%
18 Narraguagus · runner 2 23:09 9–25
99%
 <1%
19 George Stevens Academy · runner 4 23:26 11–27
97%
 <1%
20 George Stevens Academy · runner 5 23:27 11–27
98%
 <1%
21 Orono · runner 5 23:52 14–29
94%
 <1%
22 Dexter · runner 3individual (no team score) 24:01 14–30
91%
 <1%
23 Houlton/GHCA · runner 1 24:04 15–31
89%
 <1%
24 Orono · runner 6 24:07 16–31
89%
 <1%
25 Narraguagus · runner 3 24:26 18–32
82%
 <1%
26 Narraguagus · runner 4 24:29 18–32
81%
 <1%
27 Washington Academy · runner 1individual (no team score) 24:29 18–33
80%
 <1%
28 Winslow · runner 1individual (no team score) 24:44 20–34
71%
 <1%
29 Sumner · runner 1individual (no team score) 24:57 21–36
62%
 <1%
30 Houlton/GHCA · runner 2 25:07 22–36
54%
 <1%
31 MSSM · runner 1Little dataindividual (no team score) 25:26 12–46
46%
 <1%
32 Narraguagus · runner 5 25:44 27–39
27%
 <1%
33 MCI · runner 2 25:51 27–40
25%
 <1%
34 Houlton/GHCA · runner 3 25:54 28–40
22%
 <1%
35 Houlton/GHCA · runner 4 26:05 29–41
16%
 <1%
36 Orono · runner 7 26:13 30–42
13%
 <1%
37 Washington Academy · runner 2individual (no team score) 26:52 33–45
3%
 <1%
38 Washington Academy · runner 3individual (no team score) 26:54 33–45
3%
 <1%
39 Calais · runner 4 27:06 34–46
2%
 <1%
40 Calais · runner 5 27:15 35–46
1%
 <1%
41 Schenck/Stearns · runner 1 27:18 36–46
1%
 <1%
42 Sumner · runner 2individual (no team score) 27:39 37–47
<1%
 <1%
43 Schenck/Stearns · runner 2 27:43 34–50
4%
 <1%
44 George Stevens Academy · runner 6No 2026 race yet – 19–56
22%
 <1%
45 MCI · runner 3No 2026 race yet – 19–56
22%
 1%
46 Schenck/Stearns · runner 3No 2026 race yet – 17–56
23%
 <1%
47 Narraguagus · runner 6 27:54 38–48
<1%
 <1%
48 Narraguagus · runner 7 28:40 43–51
<1%
 <1%
49 Houlton/GHCA · runner 5 29:24 45–53
<1%
 <1%
50 Dexter · runner 4individual (no team score) 29:24 45–53
<1%
 <1%
51 Bucksport · runner 2individual (no team score) 29:30 43–54
<1%
 <1%
52 MCI · runner 4 29:53 47–54
<1%
 <1%
53 MSSM · runner 2individual (no team score) 30:18 46–56
<1%
 <1%
54 Houlton/GHCA · runner 6 30:46 50–56
<1%
 <1%
55 Calais · runner 6 31:08 51–56
<1%
 <1%
56 MCI · runner 5Little data 31:22 46–58
<1%
 <1%
57 Schenck/Stearns · runner 4Little data 33:37 53–59
<1%
 <1%
58 MCI · runner 6 33:45 56–58
<1%
 <1%
59 Schenck/Stearns · runner 5Little data 36:07 57–60
<1%
 <1%
60 Houlton/GHCA · runner 7 37:43 59–60
<1%
 <1%

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.