We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
MCI Girls
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish6 of 7 (142 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–6
State meet linetop 4 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points142
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)27:35
Pack: 1st to 5th runner504 s
Scoring five's projected places15 · 33 · 45 · 52 · 56
6th runner behind the 5th143 s
Against the teams around them
Houlton/GHCA (projected 5)-88 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Narraguagus84 pts
Their points vs the last team in+58
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
MCI runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #15 overall | 22:58 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #33 overall | 25:51 | 25%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3No 2026 race yetSCORERprojected #45 overall | – | 22%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #52 overall | 29:53 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5Little dataSCORERprojected #56 overall | 31:22 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #58 overall | 33:45 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.