We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Narraguagus Girls
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish4 of 7 (84 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)3–4
State meet linetop 4 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.53%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points84
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)24:08
Pack: 1st to 5th runner170 s
Scoring five's projected places14 · 18 · 25 · 26 · 32
6th runner behind the 5th130 s
Against the teams around them
Houlton/GHCA (projected 5)+119 s per runner
Their points vs the last team in+0
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Narraguagus runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #14 overall | 22:53 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #18 overall | 23:09 | 99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #25 overall | 24:26 | 82%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #26 overall | 24:29 | 81%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #32 overall | 25:44 | 27%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #47 overall | 27:54 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #48 overall | 28:40 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.