We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Schenck/Stearns Girls
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 5 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 7 (176 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)7
State meet linetop 4 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points176
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)30:31
Pack: 1st to 5th runner528 s
Scoring five's projected places41 · 43 · 46 · 57 · 59
6th runner behind the 5thno 6th runner
Against the teams around them
MCI (projected 6)-176 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Narraguagus84 pts
Their points vs the last team in+92
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Schenck/Stearns runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #41 overall | 27:18 | 1%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #43 overall | 27:43 | 4%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3No 2026 race yetSCORERprojected #46 overall | – | 23%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4Little dataSCORERprojected #57 overall | 33:37 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5Little dataSCORERprojected #59 overall | 36:07 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.