We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Calais Girls
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish3 of 7 (81 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)3–4
State meet linetop 4 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.47%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points81
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)24:19
Pack: 1st to 5th runner349 s
Scoring five's projected places6 · 13 · 17 · 39 · 40
6th runner behind the 5th233 s
Against the teams around them
Narraguagus (projected 4)-11 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Narraguagus84 pts
Their points vs the last team in-3
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Calais runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #6 overall | 21:26 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #13 overall | 22:45 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #17 overall | 23:04 | 99%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #39 overall | 27:06 | 2%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #40 overall | 27:15 | 1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #55 overall | 31:08 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.