We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Houlton/GHCA Girls
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 7 (123 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–6
State meet linetop 4 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points123
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)26:07
Pack: 1st to 5th runner319 s
Scoring five's projected places23 · 30 · 34 · 35 · 49
6th runner behind the 5th82 s
Against the teams around them
Narraguagus (projected 4)-119 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Narraguagus84 pts
Their points vs the last team in+39
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Houlton/GHCA runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #23 overall | 24:04 | 89%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #30 overall | 25:07 | 54%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #34 overall | 25:54 | 22%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #35 overall | 26:05 | 16%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #49 overall | 29:24 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #54 overall | 30:46 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #60 overall | 37:43 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.