We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Orono Girls
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish1 of 7 (34 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–2
State meet linetop 4 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.65%
Top 3 est.>99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points34
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:03
Pack: 1st to 5th runner230 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 5 · 9 · 10 · 21
6th runner behind the 5th15 s
Against the teams around them
George Stevens Academy (projected 2)+9 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Narraguagus84 pts
Their points vs the last team in-50
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Orono runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 20:02 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #5 overall | 21:21 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #9 overall | 22:29 | >99%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #10 overall | 22:30 | >99%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #21 overall | 23:52 | 94%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #24 overall | 24:07 | 89%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #36 overall | 26:13 | 13%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.