We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Camden Hills Girls
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish2 of 10 (62 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–3
State meet linetop 5 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-46 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.7%
Top 3 est.>99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points62
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:47
Pack: 1st to 5th runner129 s
Scoring five's projected places3 · 9 · 14 · 17 · 19
6th runner behind the 5th11 s
Against the teams around them
Brunswick (projected 3)+22 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Bangor140 pts
Their points vs the last team in-78
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Camden Hills runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #3 overall | 19:34 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #9 overall | 20:21 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #14 overall | 20:47 | >99%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #17 overall | 21:30 | 96%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #19 overall | 21:42 | 94%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #20 overall | 21:54 | 91%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #21 overall | 21:57 | 91%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.