We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Camden Hills Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish1 of 12 (72 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–4
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.31%
Top 3 est.77%
To States est.99%99% before the conference meets
Projected points72
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)17:22
Pack: 1st to 5th runner93 s
Scoring five's projected places4 · 9 · 10 · 17 · 32
6th runner behind the 5th9 s
Against the teams around them
Hampden Academy (projected 2)+5 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in-99
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Camden Hills runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #4 overall | 16:40 | 98%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #9 overall | 17:11 | 92%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #10 overall | 17:13 | 92%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #17 overall | 17:35 | 78%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #32 overall | 18:13 | 46%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #35 overall | 18:22 | 38%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #38 overall | 18:25 | 34%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.