We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Class A North Boys

12 schools, 113 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Troy Howard Middle School, BelfastHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)12

To the state meettop 6 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered113

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course-37 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Troy Howard (Belfast) rated -37 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

A close race at the top: Hampden Academy (est. 31%) and Camden Hills (est. 31%). Why Hampden Academy: Camden Hills' five average 5 s per runner faster, but Hampden Academy's runners land in better places at runner #5, and other teams' runners in between decide it. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 52 s (Camden Hills: 93 s).

Closest projected battle: Camden Hills vs Hampden Academy, 2 points apart (72 to 74).

On the state-meet line (top 6 go): Oxford Hills est. 77%; Brewer est. 36%; Mt. Ararat est. 44%; Brunswick est. 38%.

Projected individual winner: Bangor · runner 1, est. 39% to win; 31 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): no team's chances moved 5 points or more.

Team projection · free6 of 12 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	Camden HillsKVAC · finish 1–4	31%	77%	99%	72	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 93 s
2	Hampden AcademyKVAC · finish 1–4	31%	77%	99%	74	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 52 s
3	MessalonskeeKVAC · finish 1–5	15%	58%	97%	81	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 87 s
4	Mt. BlueKVAC · finish 1–5	20%	68%	99%	87	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 122 s
5	Oxford HillsKVAC · finish 3–8	1%	12%	77%	139	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 122 s
6	BrewerKVAC · finish 5–9	<1%	2%	36%	171	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 119 s
↑ State meet line: the top 6 teams
7	Mt. AraratKVAC · finish 5–9	<1%	3%	44%	175	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 136 s
8	BrunswickKVAC · finish 5–9	<1%	3%	38%	195	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 78 s
9	BangorKVAC · finish 6–9	<1%	<1%	12%	204	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 302 s
10	Edward LittleKVAC · finish 9–11	<1%	<1%	<1%	279	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 151 s
11	LewistonKVAC · finish 10–12	<1%	<1%	<1%	294	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 172 s
12	SkowheganKVAC · finish 11–12	<1%	<1%	<1%	307	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 300 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Every runner · by school and number84 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Bangor · runner 1	15:57	1–8	>99%	39%
2	Mt. Blue · runner 1	16:22	1–14	>99%	15%
3	Mt. Blue · runner 2	16:24	1–14	>99%	15%
4	Camden Hills · runner 1	16:40	2–18	98%	8%
5	Messalonskee · runner 1	16:55	2–23	97%	4%
6	Hampden Academy · runner 1	17:00	3–25	95%	3%
7	Messalonskee · runner 2	17:02	3–25	95%	3%
8	Brewer · runner 1	17:08	3–28	93%	2%
9	Camden Hills · runner 2	17:11	4–29	92%	1%
10	Camden Hills · runner 3	17:13	4–29	92%	1%
11	Hampden Academy · runner 2	17:17	5–31	90%	1%
12	Messalonskee · runner 3	17:22	5–32	88%	<1%
13	Oxford Hills · runner 1	17:23	5–33	86%	<1%
14	Mt. Ararat · runner 1	17:26	5–34	85%	<1%
15	Hampden Academy · runner 3	17:28	6–35	83%	<1%
16	Oxford Hills · runner 2	17:29	6–34	84%	<1%
17	Camden Hills · runner 4	17:35	7–37	78%	<1%
18	Hampden Academy · runner 4	17:39	8–38	78%	<1%
19	Oxford Hills · runner 3	17:44	8–39	73%	<1%
20	Mt. Blue · runner 3	17:45	9–40	71%	<1%
21	Messalonskee · runner 4	17:49	9–41	68%	<1%
22	Mt. Ararat · runner 2	17:49	9–41	69%	<1%
23	Brewer · runner 2	17:51	9–42	68%	<1%
24	Hampden Academy · runner 5	17:52	11–43	65%	<1%
25	Mt. Blue · runner 4	17:54	11–43	65%	<1%
26	Brunswick · runner 1	17:54	11–44	64%	<1%
27	Hampden Academy · runner 6	17:54	11–44	64%	<1%
28	Skowhegan · runner 1	17:56	11–44	61%	<1%
29	Brunswick · runner 2	17:57	11–44	61%	<1%
30	Bangor · runner 2	18:06	13–47	52%	<1%
31	Hampden Academy · runner 7	18:07	14–48	51%	<1%
32	Camden Hills · runner 5	18:13	16–49	46%	<1%
33	Oxford Hills · runner 4	18:13	16–49	46%	<1%
34	Mt. Ararat · runner 3	18:14	15–49	46%	<1%
35	Camden Hills · runner 6	18:22	18–51	38%	<1%
36	Messalonskee · runner 5	18:22	18–51	37%	<1%
37	Mt. Blue · runner 5	18:24	18–52	35%	<1%
38	Camden Hills · runner 7	18:25	19–53	34%	<1%
39	Lewiston · runner 1	18:30	19–53	30%	<1%
40	Mt. Blue · runner 6	18:32	20–54	28%	<1%
41	Brunswick · runner 3	18:34	14–59	32%	<1%
42	Brewer · runner 3	18:45	25–57	20%	<1%
43	Mt. Ararat · runner 4	18:46	25–57	18%	<1%
44	Bangor · runner 3	18:47	26–57	16%	<1%
45	Edward Little · runner 1	18:48	26–57	17%	<1%
46	Edward Little · runner 2	18:50	26–57	16%	<1%
47	Brunswick · runner 4	19:02	30–60	10%	<1%
48	Brewer · runner 4	19:02	31–60	10%	<1%
49	Messalonskee · runner 6	19:03	31–61	10%	<1%
50	Brewer · runner 5	19:07	33–61	7%	<1%
51	Lewiston · runner 2	19:11	34–61	6%	<1%
52	Brunswick · runner 5	19:12	35–62	5%	<1%
53	Brunswick · runner 6	19:12	34–62	6%	<1%
54	Messalonskee · runner 7	19:20	37–63	4%	<1%
55	Mt. Blue · runner 7	19:24	39–64	3%	<1%
56	Edward Little · runner 3	19:25	39–64	3%	<1%
57	Brunswick · runner 7	19:26	39–64	3%	<1%
58	Oxford Hills · runner 5	19:26	39–64	3%	<1%
59	Bangor · runner 4	19:28	40–64	3%	<1%
60	Edward Little · runner 4	19:32	42–65	2%	<1%
61	Oxford Hills · runner 6	19:42	44–66	1%	<1%
62	Mt. Ararat · runner 5	19:42	44–66	1%	<1%
63	Mt. Ararat · runner 6	19:44	45–66	<1%	<1%
64	Lewiston · runner 3	20:25	56–71	<1%	<1%
65	Skowhegan · runner 2	20:31	57–72	<1%	<1%
66	Skowhegan · runner 3	20:47	60–74	<1%	<1%
67	Lewiston · runner 4	20:48	60–74	<1%	<1%
68	Mt. Ararat · runner 7	20:53	61–75	<1%	<1%
69	Skowhegan · runner 4	20:54	61–75	<1%	<1%
70	Bangor · runner 5	20:58	62–75	<1%	<1%
71	Oxford Hills · runner 7	21:00	62–75	<1%	<1%
72	Edward Little · runner 5	21:20	65–77	<1%	<1%
73	Lewiston · runner 5	21:23	65–77	<1%	<1%
74	Lewiston · runner 6	21:26	66–77	<1%	<1%
75	Lewiston · runner 7	21:44	69–78	<1%	<1%
76	Brewer · runner 6	21:50	69–79	<1%	<1%
77	Brewer · runner 7	21:53	70–79	<1%	<1%
78	Bangor · runner 6	22:21	73–80	<1%	<1%
79	Skowhegan · runner 5	22:56	76–81	<1%	<1%
80	Skowhegan · runner 6	23:04	77–81	<1%	<1%
81	Bangor · runner 7	23:07	77–81	<1%	<1%
82	Edward Little · runner 6	24:14	81–82	<1%	<1%
83	Skowhegan · runner 7	25:46	83–83	<1%	<1%
84	Edward Little · runner 7	34:48	84–84	<1%	<1%

Show all 84 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.