We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Class A South Boys

18 schools, 166 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Twin Brook Recreation Area, CumberlandHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)17

To the state meettop 9 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered166

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course+3 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Twin Brook (Cumberland) rated +3 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

Portland lead the projection clearly (est. 70% to win). Why Portland: their scoring five average 22 s per runner faster than Falmouth's. They place ahead of Falmouth at runners #2, #3, #4 and #5. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 9 s (Falmouth: 111 s).

Closest projected battle: Cheverus vs Windham, 2 points apart (357 to 359).

On the state-meet line (top 9 go): South Portland est. 78%; Massabesic est. 32%; Kennebunk est. 32%.

Projected individual winner: Falmouth · runner 1, est. 26% to win; 27 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): no team's chances moved 5 points or more.

Team projection · free9 of 17 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	PortlandSMAA · finish 1–3	70%	94%	>99%	33	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 9 s
2	Thornton AcademySMAA · finish 2–6	8%	52%	>99%	94	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 76 s
3	FalmouthSMAA · finish 1–5	10%	61%	>99%	98	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 111 s
4	GorhamSMAA · finish 2–6	6%	40%	>99%	113	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 33 s
5	ScarboroughSMAA · finish 2–7	3%	31%	>99%	125	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 98 s
6	Bonny EagleSMAA · finish 3–7	2%	19%	>99%	149	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 64 s
7	SanfordSMAA · finish 5–8	<1%	3%	97%	185	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 125 s
8	South PortlandSMAA · finish 7–11	<1%	<1%	78%	256	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 92 s
9	MassabesicSMAA · finish 8–14	<1%	<1%	32%	309	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 174 s
↑ State meet line: the top 9 teams
10	KennebunkSMAA · finish 8–14	<1%	<1%	32%	326	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 141 s
11	Fryeburg AcademyWMC · finish 9–15	<1%	<1%	19%	338	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 145 s
12	DeeringSMAA · finish 9–15	<1%	<1%	19%	344	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 74 s
13	CheverusSMAA · finish 10–16	<1%	<1%	6%	357	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 214 s
14	WindhamSMAA · finish 10–16	<1%	<1%	4%	359	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 234 s
15	MarshwoodSMAA · finish 10–16	<1%	<1%	10%	365	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 167 s
16	NobleSMAA · finish 11–16	<1%	<1%	3%	418	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 46 s
17	BiddefordSMAA · finish 16–17	<1%	<1%	<1%	466	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 237 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Westbrook.

Every runner · by school and number122 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Falmouth · runner 1	16:30	1–14	>99%	26%
2	Scarborough · runner 1	16:42	1–18	98%	18%
3	Thornton Academy · runner 1	17:03	2–26	94%	8%
4	Portland · runner 1	17:09	2–29	91%	4%
5	Portland · runner 2	17:09	3–29	92%	5%
6	Falmouth · runner 2	17:11	2–29	91%	4%
7	Portland · runner 3	17:13	3–32	89%	4%
8	Portland · runner 4	17:16	3–33	88%	4%
9	Portland · runner 5	17:18	3–33	87%	3%
10	Portland · runner 6	17:22	4–35	85%	2%
11	Windham · runner 1	17:24	4–36	83%	2%
12	Sanford · runner 1	17:28	4–37	81%	2%
13	Thornton Academy · runner 2	17:31	4–38	80%	2%
14	Falmouth · runner 3	17:32	5–38	80%	2%
15	Sanford · runner 2	17:35	5–41	76%	1%
16	Bonny Eagle · runner 1	17:38	5–43	73%	2%
17	Thornton Academy · runner 3	17:38	6–41	75%	<1%
18	Gorham · runner 1	17:43	6–43	72%	<1%
19	Gorham · runner 2	17:44	6–44	70%	<1%
20	Gorham · runner 3	17:44	6–43	71%	<1%
21	Gorham · runner 4	17:50	8–47	64%	<1%
22	Portland · runner 7	17:50	8–47	64%	<1%
23	Bonny Eagle · runner 2	17:52	8–47	64%	<1%
24	Kennebunk · runner 1	17:53	8–49	60%	<1%
25	Thornton Academy · runner 4	17:54	9–48	60%	<1%
26	Scarborough · runner 2	17:54	8–48	61%	<1%
27	Scarborough · runner 3	18:04	11–53	51%	<1%
28	Massabesic · runner 1	18:06	12–54	49%	<1%
29	Fryeburg Academy · runner 1	18:07	12–55	47%	<1%
30	Bonny Eagle · runner 3	18:09	13–55	46%	<1%
31	Cheverus · runner 1	18:14	15–58	41%	<1%
32	Scarborough · runner 4	18:14	14–57	41%	<1%
33	Massabesic · runner 2	18:15	14–58	40%	<1%
34	Bonny Eagle · runner 4	18:15	14–58	40%	<1%
35	Gorham · runner 5	18:16	15–58	39%	<1%
36	Thornton Academy · runner 5	18:19	16–59	36%	<1%
37	Falmouth · runner 4	18:20	16–59	34%	<1%
38	Scarborough · runner 5	18:20	16–59	35%	<1%
39	South Portland · runner 1	18:21	16–60	35%	<1%
40	Westbrook · runner 1individual (no team score)	18:21	15–60	34%	<1%
41	Falmouth · runner 5	18:22	16–60	33%	<1%
42	South Portland · runner 2	18:28	20–62	29%	<1%
43	South Portland · runner 3	18:31	20–64	25%	<1%
44	Gorham · runner 6	18:36	21–66	23%	<1%
45	Sanford · runner 3	18:39	22–67	21%	<1%
46	Marshwood · runner 1	18:40	23–69	20%	<1%
47	Bonny Eagle · runner 5	18:42	24–68	18%	<1%
48	Falmouth · runner 6	18:43	24–69	18%	<1%
49	Westbrook · runner 2individual (no team score)	18:46	24–72	17%	<1%
50	Bonny Eagle · runner 6	18:46	25–70	16%	<1%
51	Falmouth · runner 7	18:46	26–70	15%	<1%
52	Sanford · runner 4	18:54	29–73	11%	<1%
53	Thornton Academy · runner 6	18:56	30–74	11%	<1%
54	Thornton Academy · runner 7	18:56	30–75	11%	<1%
55	Deering · runner 1	18:59	31–75	10%	<1%
56	Gorham · runner 7	19:05	34–77	7%	<1%
57	Scarborough · runner 6	19:05	33–79	7%	<1%
58	Bonny Eagle · runner 7	19:09	35–79	6%	<1%
59	Scarborough · runner 7	19:10	37–80	6%	<1%
60	Deering · runner 2Little data	19:15	11–101	24%	2%
61	South Portland · runner 4	19:16	39–82	4%	<1%
62	Fryeburg Academy · runner 2	19:18	40–82	4%	<1%
63	Cheverus · runner 2	19:26	32–94	9%	<1%
64	Windham · runner 2	19:30	45–86	2%	<1%
65	Biddeford · runner 1	19:31	45–87	2%	<1%
66	Sanford · runner 5	19:33	46–88	2%	<1%
67	Biddeford · runner 2	19:36	48–90	2%	<1%
68	Marshwood · runner 2	19:37	47–89	1%	<1%
69	Kennebunk · runner 2	19:40	50–90	1%	<1%
70	Cheverus · runner 3	19:42	50–91	<1%	<1%
71	Deering · runner 3	19:44	51–90	<1%	<1%
72	Sanford · runner 6	19:45	51–92	<1%	<1%
73	Massabesic · runner 3	19:45	51–91	<1%	<1%
74	Fryeburg Academy · runner 3	19:51	55–93	<1%	<1%
75	Kennebunk · runner 3	19:51	54–93	<1%	<1%
76	Marshwood · runner 3	19:52	54–94	<1%	<1%
77	Noble · runner 1	19:52	54–94	<1%	<1%
78	South Portland · runner 5	19:52	55–93	<1%	<1%
79	Marshwood · runner 4	19:54	55–94	<1%	<1%
80	Kennebunk · runner 4	19:55	56–94	<1%	<1%
81	Noble · runner 2	19:57	56–94	<1%	<1%
82	Massabesic · runner 4	19:59	57–95	<1%	<1%
83	Deering · runner 4	20:00	58–96	<1%	<1%
84	Noble · runner 3	20:03	59–96	<1%	<1%
85	Deering · runner 5	20:13	63–99	<1%	<1%
86	Kennebunk · runner 5Little data	20:14	36–110	8%	<1%
87	Windham · runner 3	20:14	62–99	<1%	<1%
88	Sanford · runner 7	20:15	65–99	<1%	<1%
89	Noble · runner 4Little data	20:18	35–110	8%	<1%
90	Fryeburg Academy · runner 4	20:20	67–100	<1%	<1%
91	Fryeburg Academy · runner 5	20:32	71–103	<1%	<1%
92	South Portland · runner 6	20:35	72–103	<1%	<1%
93	Cheverus · runner 4	20:35	73–104	<1%	<1%
94	Fryeburg Academy · runner 6	20:36	73–103	<1%	<1%
95	Kennebunk · runner 6	20:38	73–104	<1%	<1%
96	Noble · runner 5	20:39	73–104	<1%	<1%
97	Kennebunk · runner 7	20:40	74–104	<1%	<1%
98	Fryeburg Academy · runner 7	20:56	80–106	<1%	<1%
99	Massabesic · runner 5	21:01	82–107	<1%	<1%
100	Deering · runner 6	21:01	82–108	<1%	<1%
101	Windham · runner 4	21:05	83–108	<1%	<1%
102	South Portland · runner 7	21:05	83–108	<1%	<1%
103	Deering · runner 7	21:09	85–109	<1%	<1%
104	Windham · runner 5	21:18	89–110	<1%	<1%
105	Marshwood · runner 5Little data	21:27	64–118	2%	<1%
106	Marshwood · runner 6	21:36	94–112	<1%	<1%
107	Windham · runner 6	21:43	95–113	<1%	<1%
108	Cheverus · runner 5	21:48	96–113	<1%	<1%
109	Marshwood · runner 7	21:48	97–113	<1%	<1%
110	Massabesic · runner 6	22:18	102–116	<1%	<1%
111	Windham · runner 7	22:19	103–117	<1%	<1%
112	Noble · runner 6	22:19	103–116	<1%	<1%
113	Biddeford · runner 3	22:27	104–117	<1%	<1%
114	Noble · runner 7	22:34	106–118	<1%	<1%
115	Westbrook · runner 3individual (no team score)	22:44	107–118	<1%	<1%
116	Biddeford · runner 4	23:05	110–120	<1%	<1%
117	Biddeford · runner 5	23:28	113–121	<1%	<1%
118	Cheverus · runner 6	23:33	113–121	<1%	<1%
119	Biddeford · runner 6	23:37	114–121	<1%	<1%
120	Biddeford · runner 7	23:48	115–122	<1%	<1%
121	Cheverus · runner 7Little data	23:51	107–122	<1%	<1%
122	Massabesic · runner 7	24:14	117–122	<1%	<1%

Show all 122 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.