We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Noble Boys
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish16 of 17 (418 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)11–16
State meet linetop 9 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.3%3% before the conference meets
Projected points418
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:10
Pack: 1st to 5th runner46 s
Scoring five's projected places77 · 81 · 84 · 89 · 96
6th runner behind the 5th101 s
Against the teams around them
Marshwood (projected 15)-16 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Massabesic309 pts
Their points vs the last team in+109
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Noble runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #77 overall | 19:52 | <1%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #81 overall | 19:57 | <1%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #84 overall | 20:03 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4Little dataSCORERprojected #89 overall | 20:18 | 8%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #96 overall | 20:39 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #112 overall | 22:19 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #114 overall | 22:34 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.