We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Falmouth Boys
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish3 of 17 (98 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–5
State meet linetop 9 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.10%
Top 3 est.61%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points98
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)17:35
Pack: 1st to 5th runner111 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 6 · 14 · 37 · 41
6th runner behind the 5th21 s
Against the teams around them
Gorham (projected 4)+16 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Massabesic309 pts
Their points vs the last team in-211
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Falmouth runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 16:30 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #6 overall | 17:11 | 91%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #14 overall | 17:32 | 80%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #37 overall | 18:20 | 34%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #41 overall | 18:22 | 33%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #48 overall | 18:43 | 18%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #51 overall | 18:46 | 15%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.