We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Falmouth Girls
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish1 of 16 (54 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–3
State meet linetop 8 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.52%
Top 3 est.98%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points54
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:25
Pack: 1st to 5th runner197 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 4 · 6 · 18 · 25
6th runner behind the 5th38 s
Against the teams around them
Portland (projected 2)+19 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Deering215 pts
Their points vs the last team in-161
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Falmouth runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 18:31 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #4 overall | 19:59 | 99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #6 overall | 20:12 | 98%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #18 overall | 21:38 | 66%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #25 overall | 21:47 | 56%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #37 overall | 22:25 | 31%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #40 overall | 22:37 | 25%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.