We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
South Portland Boys
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish8 of 17 (256 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)7–11
State meet linetop 9 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.78%75% before the conference meets
Projected points256
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:54
Pack: 1st to 5th runner92 s
Scoring five's projected places39 · 42 · 43 · 61 · 78
6th runner behind the 5th42 s
Against the teams around them
Massabesic (projected 9)+32 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Massabesic309 pts
Their points vs the last team in-53
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
South Portland runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #39 overall | 18:21 | 35%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #42 overall | 18:28 | 29%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #43 overall | 18:31 | 25%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #61 overall | 19:16 | 4%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #78 overall | 19:52 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #92 overall | 20:35 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #102 overall | 21:05 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.