We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Class B South Boys

13 schools, 109 runners entered. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win, finish top 3 and reach the state meet, and every runner.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →

Sat Oct 24Twin Brook Recreation Area, CumberlandHow we got the numbers

Teams (5+ runners)11

To the state meettop 6 teams + top 30 runners

Runners entered109

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 20

Entry lists as ofThu Oct 22, 2:28 PM

Course+3 s vs median

Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Twin Brook (Cumberland) rated +3 s vs a median Maine course. Weather: not stored in the freeze. Start times weren't posted, so every race used Saturday's 10 AM–1 PM forecast for its site.

Yarmouth lead the projection clearly (est. 92% to win). Why Yarmouth: their scoring five average 48 s per runner faster than Freeport's. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 54 s (Freeport: 107 s).

Closest projected battle: Gray-New Gloucester and Lake Region are tied on projected points (207); the 6th runner breaks a tie.

On the state-meet line (top 6 go): Poland est. 24%; Wells est. 28%; Gray-New Gloucester est. 20%; Lincoln Academy est. 21%.

Projected individual winner: Yarmouth · runner 1, est. 27% to win; 31 runners have a better than even chance of the top 30.

Since the conference meets (results from Oct 15 on): no team's chances moved 5 points or more.

Team projection · free6 of 11 go to States

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	To States est.	Pts	Scoring five	Pack
1	YarmouthWMC · finish 1	92%	>99%	>99%	19	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 54 s
2	FreeportWMC · finish 2–4	6%	84%	>99%	72	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 107 s
3	Cape ElizabethWMC · finish 2–5	<1%	42%	97%	106	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 98 s
4	YorkWMC · finish 2–6	<1%	39%	96%	115	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 54 s
5	GreelyWMC · finish 2–6	<1%	33%	94%	120	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 62 s
6	PolandWMC · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	24%	201	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 290 s
↑ State meet line: the top 6 teams
7	WellsWMC · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	28%	204	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 154 s
8	Gray-New GloucesterWMC · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	20%	207	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 152 s
9	Lake RegionWMC · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	20%	207	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 138 s
10	Lincoln AcademyKVAC · finish 6–10	<1%	<1%	21%	228	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 70 s
11	MorseKVAC · finish 9–11	<1%	<1%	<1%	275	runners 1, 2, 3, 4, 5	1–5 split 94 s

Order = projected finish (points). A team lower down can have a better chance at the state line when its likely range is wider. "Pack" = seconds between a team's 1st and 5th runner (smaller = harder to beat on a bad day). Teams follow the entry lists. Tap a school for its team page.

Fewer than five entered, so they run as individuals (no team score): Leavitt, Spruce Mountain.

Every runner · by school and number83 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 30 est.	Win est.
1	Yarmouth · runner 1	16:38	1–9	>99%	27%
2	Yarmouth · runner 2	16:50	1–13	>99%	17%
3	Yarmouth · runner 3	17:00	1–14	>99%	11%
4	Yarmouth · runner 4	17:09	2–17	99%	7%
5	Freeport · runner 1	17:16	2–19	99%	8%
6	Cape Elizabeth · runner 1	17:16	2–19	99%	8%
7	Poland · runner 1	17:25	2–21	98%	5%
8	Freeport · runner 2	17:26	3–22	98%	4%
9	Yarmouth · runner 5	17:32	4–24	96%	2%
10	Freeport · runner 3	17:39	4–26	95%	2%
11	Freeport · runner 4	17:41	4–26	94%	2%
12	Yarmouth · runner 6	17:42	4–26	94%	1%
13	York · runner 1	17:53	5–31	90%	1%
14	Greely · runner 1	17:58	6–32	88%	1%
15	Lake Region · runner 1	18:12	8–37	79%	<1%
16	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 1	18:12	8–37	78%	<1%
17	York · runner 2	18:16	8–37	78%	<1%
18	Cape Elizabeth · runner 2	18:17	9–39	76%	<1%
19	Wells · runner 1	18:20	9–39	74%	<1%
20	Greely · runner 2	18:25	11–41	70%	<1%
21	Greely · runner 3	18:26	10–41	69%	<1%
22	Cape Elizabeth · runner 3	18:28	11–42	68%	<1%
23	York · runner 3	18:29	11–42	67%	<1%
24	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 2	18:35	12–45	60%	<1%
25	Yarmouth · runner 7	18:36	13–45	60%	<1%
26	Cape Elizabeth · runner 4	18:38	13–45	58%	<1%
27	Wells · runner 2	18:39	13–45	56%	<1%
28	Greely · runner 4	18:39	13–45	56%	<1%
29	Poland · runner 2	18:40	14–47	54%	<1%
30	York · runner 4	18:41	14–46	55%	<1%
31	Lincoln Academy · runner 1	18:42	14–47	53%	<1%
32	York · runner 5	18:47	16–49	48%	<1%
33	Lake Region · runner 2	18:54	16–50	42%	<1%
34	Cape Elizabeth · runner 5	18:54	17–50	42%	<1%
35	Poland · runner 3	18:54	16–51	41%	<1%
36	Wells · runner 3	18:59	18–52	38%	<1%
37	Greely · runner 5	19:00	19–52	35%	<1%
38	Freeport · runner 5	19:03	19–52	35%	<1%
39	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 3	19:04	20–54	33%	<1%
40	Morse · runner 1	19:09	21–55	27%	<1%
41	York · runner 6	19:11	23–55	26%	<1%
42	Greely · runner 6	19:17	23–57	22%	<1%
43	Greely · runner 7	19:22	26–58	18%	<1%
44	York · runner 7	19:22	26–58	18%	<1%
45	Cape Elizabeth · runner 6	19:23	25–59	18%	<1%
46	Lincoln Academy · runner 2	19:28	27–59	16%	<1%
47	Lincoln Academy · runner 3	19:29	27–59	16%	<1%
48	Lake Region · runner 3	19:41	31–62	9%	<1%
49	Morse · runner 2	19:42	32–63	9%	<1%
50	Lake Region · runner 4	19:45	32–63	8%	<1%
51	Lincoln Academy · runner 4	19:46	33–64	7%	<1%
52	Freeport · runner 6	19:50	34–65	6%	<1%
53	Lincoln Academy · runner 5	19:52	35–65	6%	<1%
54	Wells · runner 4	19:53	35–65	5%	<1%
55	Freeport · runner 7	19:54	36–66	5%	<1%
56	Cape Elizabeth · runner 7	19:58	37–66	4%	<1%
57	Poland · runner 4	20:02	39–67	3%	<1%
58	Lincoln Academy · runner 6	20:13	42–69	2%	<1%
59	Lincoln Academy · runner 7	20:16	42–70	2%	<1%
60	Morse · runner 3	20:27	46–71	<1%	<1%
61	Leavitt · runner 1individual (no team score)	20:28	47–71	<1%	<1%
62	Lake Region · runner 5	20:30	47–71	<1%	<1%
63	Morse · runner 4	20:31	49–71	<1%	<1%
64	Leavitt · runner 2individual (no team score)	20:38	50–73	<1%	<1%
65	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 4	20:39	50–73	<1%	<1%
66	Morse · runner 5	20:44	52–73	<1%	<1%
67	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 5	20:44	52–73	<1%	<1%
68	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 6	20:51	54–74	<1%	<1%
69	Morse · runner 6	20:53	54–74	<1%	<1%
70	Wells · runner 5	20:53	55–74	<1%	<1%
71	Leavitt · runner 3individual (no team score)	21:02	56–75	<1%	<1%
72	Wells · runner 6	21:02	57–75	<1%	<1%
73	Lake Region · runner 6	21:07	59–75	<1%	<1%
74	Lake Region · runner 7	21:29	63–77	<1%	<1%
75	Wells · runner 7	21:41	66–78	<1%	<1%
76	Poland · runner 5	22:14	72–79	<1%	<1%
77	Morse · runner 7	22:15	72–79	<1%	<1%
78	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 7	22:18	72–79	<1%	<1%
79	Poland · runner 6	22:41	75–79	<1%	<1%
80	Poland · runner 7	24:03	79–81	<1%	<1%
81	Spruce Mountain · runner 1individual (no team score)	24:10	79–81	<1%	<1%
82	Spruce Mountain · runner 2individual (no team score)	27:15	82–83	<1%	<1%
83	Spruce Mountain · runner 3individual (no team score)	27:34	82–83	<1%	<1%

Show all 83 runners

Chances, not calls: team chances come from 4,000 simulated races. "Finish a–b" is where the team lands in 8 of 10 of them. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data this season) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Entered runners only: each school's 7 best entered runners run; runners on teams with fewer than five run as individuals and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race; see how it did.