We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Greely Boys
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 11 (120 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–6
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.33%
To States est.94%95% before the conference meets
Projected points120
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:29
Pack: 1st to 5th runner62 s
Scoring five's projected places14 · 20 · 21 · 28 · 37
6th runner behind the 5th17 s
Against the teams around them
Poland (projected 6)+58 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Poland201 pts
Their points vs the last team in-81
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Greely runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #14 overall | 17:58 | 88%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #20 overall | 18:25 | 70%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #21 overall | 18:26 | 69%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #28 overall | 18:39 | 56%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #37 overall | 19:00 | 35%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #42 overall | 19:17 | 22%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #43 overall | 19:22 | 18%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.