We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Greely Girls
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 11 (160 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–7
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.40%53% before the conference meets
Projected points160
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)23:09
Pack: 1st to 5th runner107 s
Scoring five's projected places27 · 31 · 34 · 40 · 46
6th runner behind the 5th4 s
Against the teams around them
York (projected 6)-10 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: York149 pts
Their points vs the last team in+11
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Greely runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #27 overall | 22:21 | 64%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #31 overall | 22:48 | 45%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #34 overall | 23:00 | 36%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #40 overall | 23:30 | 16%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #46 overall | 24:07 | 5%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #47 overall | 24:11 | 5%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #61 overall | 25:48 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.